Doxa

Saturday, February 7, 2026

A nice visual overview of glaciation; although we do know that core ice on the South Pole

is much older and very thick...

Excentricity, Obliquity, Precession: this is how I remember the three cycles described by

Milankovitch!

Copilot:

What are the three Milankovich cycles called, and provide a short description for each...

The three Milankovitch cycles describe long-term variations in Earth’s orbit that influence climate patterns, especially glacial and interglacial periods. Here’s a clear breakdown of each cycle and what it does.

🌍 The Three Milankovitch Cycles

1. Eccentricity

Describes how elliptical or circular Earth’s orbit is around the Sun.

Varies on a cycle of roughly 100,000 years.

A more elliptical orbit increases the difference in solar energy Earth receives at different points in its orbit.

2. Axial Tilt (Obliquity)

Refers to the angle of Earth’s tilt, which shifts between about 22.1° and 24.5°.

Changes occur over about 41,000 years.

A greater tilt amplifies seasonal contrasts—warmer summers, colder winters.

3. Precession

Describes the wobble of Earth’s rotational axis, similar to a spinning top.

Completes a cycle roughly every 26,000 years.

Alters the timing of seasons relative to Earth’s position in its orbit.

If you’d like, I can also explain how these cycles interact to trigger ice ages—or map them to current climate trends.

What do you mean by 'wobble'??

When scientists say Earth’s axis “wobbles,” they’re describing a very specific physical motion — and it’s much less casual than the word suggests. Let me break it down cleanly.

🌍 What “wobble” really means in the Milankovitch sense

Precession = a slow, steady rotation of Earth’s axis

Imagine a spinning top. Even while it spins quickly, the tilted axis of the top slowly traces a circle in space.

Earth does the same thing.

Here’s what’s actually happening:

Earth is tilted, and that tilt points in a particular direction (currently toward Polaris).

Over about 26,000 years, the direction of that tilt slowly rotates in a circle.

The tilt angle stays roughly the same — it’s the orientation of the tilt that changes.

This rotation of the tilt direction is what scientists call axial precession.

So “wobble” is shorthand for:

A slow, circular drift of Earth’s axis through space, caused by gravitational pulls from the Sun and Moon.

It’s not shaky or unstable — it’s a smooth, predictable motion.

Why this matters for climate

Because precession changes when each hemisphere points toward or away from the Sun during Earth’s orbit, it shifts:

the timing of seasons

which hemisphere gets more intense summers

how ice sheets grow or melt over long timescales

It’s subtle, but over thousands of years, it adds up.

If you want, I can also explain why the Sun and Moon cause this precession, or how precession interacts with eccentricity and tilt to trigger ice ages.

How is this different from obliquity? where is the new information?

Great question — and you’re right to press for the distinction.

Precession and obliquity are often explained together, and the word “wobble” can make them sound similar when they’re actually describing different motions of Earth’s axis.

Let’s separate them cleanly.

🌍 Obliquity vs. Precession

1. Obliquity = the angle of the tilt changes

Earth is tilted relative to its orbital plane.

That tilt angle slowly shifts between 22.1° and 24.5°.

This cycle takes about 41,000 years.

The direction the tilt points stays the same during this cycle — only the steepness changes.

Analogy:

Imagine a tilted pencil stuck in a ball of clay. You keep the pencil pointing toward the same wall, but you slowly tilt it more or less steeply.

That’s obliquity.

2. Precession = the direction of the tilt changes

Earth keeps the same tilt angle, but the orientation of that tilt slowly rotates in space.

This cycle takes about 26,000 years.

The tilt angle doesn’t change — only the direction the axis points.

Analogy:

Now imagine the same pencil, but instead of changing how steep it is, you rotate the pencil around in a slow circle while keeping the tilt angle constant.

That’s precession.

🧠 The “new information” in one sentence

Obliquity changes how much Earth is tilted.

Precession changes which direction that tilt points.

They are orthogonal motions — one alters the magnitude of the tilt, the other alters the orientation of the tilt.

If you want, I can also show how these two cycles interact with eccentricity to amplify or dampen ice ages, or map them visually so the difference becomes intuitive.

Where do we find ourselves presently with respect to these three cycles, and how are we to interpret this?

Here’s the clearest, evidence‑based picture of where Earth currently sits in each Milankovitch cycle — and what that means for climate — grounded in the best available scientific sources.

🌍 Where We Are Today in the Three Milankovitch Cycles

Milankovitch cycles operate over tens to hundreds of thousands of years, so “where we are now” means “what phase of each slow orbital rhythm Earth is currently in.”

The sources you prompted me to check emphasize one key point: none of these cycles can explain modern warming — but they do tell us what Earth’s natural long‑term trend would be without human influence.

Let’s break it down cycle by cycle.

1. Eccentricity — Earth’s orbit shape

Where we are now

Earth’s orbit is currently near its minimum eccentricity — meaning it is more circular than average.

We are in the low‑eccentricity portion of the ~100,000‑year cycle.

How to interpret this

A more circular orbit reduces the difference in solar energy between perihelion and aphelion.

Low eccentricity weakens the precession effect, because precession matters most when the orbit is more elliptical.

In natural cycles, low eccentricity tends to favor glacial growth, not warming.

2. Obliquity — Earth’s axial tilt angle

Where we are now

Earth’s tilt is currently about 23.4°, and decreasing.

We are moving toward the minimum tilt of ~22.1° in the 41,000‑year cycle.

How to interpret this

A decreasing tilt reduces seasonal contrast, especially at high latitudes.

Lower tilt means cooler summers in the polar regions — which favors ice sheet growth, not melting.

In natural cycles, this would push Earth toward glaciation, not warming.

3. Precession — the direction of Earth’s tilt

Where we are now

Earth’s axis currently points toward Polaris.

In the 26,000‑year precession cycle, we are in a phase where the Northern Hemisphere summer occurs near aphelion (the farthest point from the Sun).

How to interpret this

Northern Hemisphere summers are slightly cooler because they occur when Earth is farther from the Sun.

Cooler NH summers = conditions that favor ice sheet survival.

Again, this natural configuration would push Earth toward cooling, not warming.

🧭 Putting It All Together

All three cycles are currently aligned in a way that should produce long‑term cooling, not warming.

This is exactly why climate scientists emphasize that Milankovitch cycles cannot explain the rapid warming observed since the Industrial Revolution.

The natural orbital forcing today is weak and trending in the opposite direction of the observed temperature rise.

🧩 So what should Earth be doing naturally?

If humans weren’t altering the atmosphere:

Low eccentricity → cooling tendency

Decreasing tilt → cooling tendency

Precession placing NH summer at aphelion → cooling tendency

Earth would be slowly drifting toward the next glacial period over thousands of years.

Instead, temperatures are rising sharply — far faster than any orbital cycle can produce.

If you want, I can map these cycles onto a timeline (past + future), or show how they combine mathematically to produce insolation curves at 65°N — the classic metric for ice‑age onset.

* * *

The mathematics to output insolation information is demanding. Below, a tool from Louvain

University in Belgium. Uses the seminal work of André Berger.

https://django.elic.ucl.ac.be/berger/insolation/

Asked Gemini to help me fill out the form:

To get the insolation information you need from the UCLouvain ELIC interface, you should follow the steps below. This interface is based on the astronomical solutions of André Berger (1978) or Berger and Loutre (1991), which are the gold standard for paleoclimate studies.Here is how to fill out the common fields you will find on that page:

1. Time Parameter (Kyear)This is usually the first box. It determines "when" in history you want the data for.Present Day: Enter 0.Past: Enter a positive number for "thousands of years before present" (ka). For example, 21 for the Last Glacial Maximum or 125 for the last interglacial.Future: Enter a negative number (e.g., -10 for 10,000 years into the future).Note: The Berger (1978) solution is typically reliable for about 1 million years back.

2. LatitudeEnter the latitude you are interested in (from -90 to 90).Northern Hemisphere: Positive numbers (e.g., 65 for 65°N).Southern Hemisphere: Negative numbers (e.g., -45 for 45°S).

3. Date / Time of YearDepending on the specific version of the tool on that page, you will see one of two options:Calendar Day: Usually a number from 1 to 365. (Day 80 is typically the Spring Equinox).Solar Longitude ($\lambda$): This is more precise for paleoclimate.0°: Vernal (Spring) Equinox (approx. March 21)90°: Summer Solstice (approx. June 21)180°: Autumnal Equinox (approx. Sept 21)270°: Winter Solstice (approx. Dec 21)

4. Solar Constant ($S_0$)The default is often set to 1365 W/m² or 1367 W/m². Unless you have a specific reason to change it (like testing a different solar output), leave this at the default value provided by the interface.

5. Output TypeThe interface usually lets you choose what result you want:Daily Mean Insolation: The average amount of solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere for that specific day and latitude (in $W/m^2$).Orbital Parameters: Some versions will also output the Eccentricity, Obliquity (tilt), and Precession for that specific time.

Common Troubleshooting Tips:If the interface is not responding: Ensure you are using a positive number for "years ago."High Latitudes: If you enter 90 or -90 during winter months, don't be surprised if the result is 0—this represents the "Polar Night."Solution Choice: If offered a choice between "Berger 78" and "Berger 91," use Berger 91 if you are looking at dates further back than 1 million years.

Would you like me to calculate a specific value for you (e.g., 65°N during the Holocene Thermal Maximum)? If you give me a specific age and latitude, I can provide the standard values used in most climate models.

Latitude 65 degrees is usually chosen in looking at Ice Ages!

Gemini:

Great; what do the output numbers represent?

Based on the interface and the resulting chart, the output numbers represent the Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) Daily Mean Insolation for the specific parameters you selected.

Here is a breakdown of what those specific values mean:

Unit of Measurement (W/m^2)

The numbers (e.g., 364.63, 450.04) are in Watts per square meter. This is the amount of solar energy hitting a horizontal surface at the top of the atmosphere at your chosen latitude.

Temporal Average: These are "daily means," meaning they represent the average energy received over a full 24-hour rotation for that specific point in orbital time.

Specific Monthly Data (at 50 ka): In your provided graph, the pop-up box shows the values for 50,000 years ago (50 ka).

For example, the value of 439.44 W/m^2 for June indicates the average daily solar radiation at 10°N latitude during that month, 50,000 years in the past.

Orbital Influence: The fluctuations you see in the lines across the "Time (ka)" axis represent how insolation has changed over 125,000 years due to shifts in Earth's orbit (eccentricity, obliquity, and precession) as calculated by the BER90 model.

True Longitude: Because you selected "True longitude," these monthly values are calculated based on the Earth's actual position in its elliptical orbit around the sun, rather than using fixed calendar dates which can shift over thousands of years.

Friday, February 6, 2026

T_Trade

Gemini:

What are the current prices for Gold and Silver on the New York Stock Exchange?

As of Friday, February 6, 2026, gold and silver are experiencing significant volatility. It is a common misconception that these metals trade directly on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE); they are actually traded as futures on the COMEX (part of the CME Group) or as "spot" prices in the global over-the-counter market.

On the NYSE, you can trade ETFs that track these prices, such as GLD (Gold) and SLV (Silver)

Market Context

The precious metals market has been on a wild ride this week.

Gold recently pulled back from all-time highs near $5,600 earlier this month. The current recovery to nearly $5,000 is driven by renewed safe-haven demand and a "bargain hunting" sentiment after a sharp correction.

Silver has been even more volatile. It hit a record high of $121 in late January 2026 before crashing. Today's price of $76.62 represents a strong bounce-back from an intraday low of roughly $64 seen earlier today.

NYSE-Traded Alternatives

If you are looking to trade these on the New York Stock Exchange specifically, here are the leading instruments:

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): Currently trading around $453.39.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV): Currently trading around $69.21.

Would you like me to look up the performance of specific gold mining stocks on the NYSE, or perhaps set a price alert for when gold crosses the $5,000 mark again?

Are the prices you gave me 'spot' prices?

Yes, the prices for gold ($4,956.80) and silver ($76.62) mentioned earlier are spot prices.

In the world of commodities, it is helpful to distinguish between the three different ways prices are quoted. Here is a quick breakdown of what those "spot" numbers actually represent versus what you see on the stock exchange:

1. Spot Price (The numbers I gave you)

What it is: The current market price for immediate delivery of the physical metal.

How it's set: It is derived from the most active "front-month" futures contracts on the COMEX. It represents the global average of what large banks and bullion dealers are trading at right now.

The Catch: You generally cannot buy physical gold at exactly the spot price. Dealers add a premium (a markup) to cover their costs and profit.

2. NYSE ETF Prices (GLD, SLV)

What they are: These are "paper" representations of the metal that trade like stocks.

The Correlation: They are designed to track the spot price very closely. For example, GLD is structured so that its share price is approximately 1/10th of the price of an ounce of gold (minus the fund's management fees).

Why they differ: Because they trade on the NYSE, they only move during New York market hours, whereas the "spot" price moves 24 hours a day globally.

3. Futures Prices

What they are: Agreements to buy or sell the metal at a specific date in the future (e.g., June 2026).

The Difference: Futures can be higher or lower than the spot price depending on "carrying costs" (storage, insurance, and interest rates) and market expectations for where the price is headed.

Would you like me to calculate the "premium" you might pay for a physical 1oz gold coin compared to the current spot price?

Please...

To understand the true cost of buying physical metal, you have to look at the Premium—the amount a dealer charges over the spot price to cover manufacturing, distribution, and their own profit.

Because of the extreme volatility today (Friday, February 6, 2026), premiums are currently higher than usual as dealers try to protect themselves from rapid price swings.

1. Gold Premium Calculation

For a standard 1oz American Gold Eagle coin:

Current Spot Price: ~$4,963.00

Dealer "Ask" Price: ~$5,161.60

Total Premium: $198.60

Premium Percentage: ~4%

Note: If you buy smaller amounts (like a 1/10oz coin), the premium can jump to 10-15% because the cost to mint the coin is the same regardless of its size.

2. Silver Premium Calculation

Silver premiums are almost always higher percentage-wise than gold because the metal is bulkier and more expensive to ship relative to its value. For a 1oz American Silver Eagle:

Current Spot Price: ~$76.68

Dealer "Ask" Price: ~$101.80

Total Premium: $25.12

Premium Percentage: ~32.7%

Why the big difference?

Bars vs. Coins: Bars generally have lower premiums because they aren't "legal tender" and are easier to mass-produce.

Volatility: On days like today, where silver has swung over 8%, dealers increase their "spread" (the difference between what they buy it from you for and what they sell it to you for) to avoid losing money if the market crashes ten minutes after you buy.

Would you like me to find a reputable online dealer with the lowest current premiums, or should we look at the "Buy Back" prices to see how much you'd lose if you sold it back immediately?

Then there is getting my 'coins' or bars into Canada. How could that be done. or can I buy from Toronto?

Buying physical gold and silver in Canada is actually significantly easier than importing it from the US, largely because Canada is one of the world's largest producers of these metals.

1. Buying Locally in Toronto

You do not need to deal with the logistics of "getting coins into Canada" if you buy them within the country. Toronto is the hub for precious metals in Canada, and you have several reputable options:

Major Banks: Banks like TD, RBC, and CIBC sell physical gold and silver. You can often order online and have it delivered to your local branch for secure pickup.

Specialized Dealers: Toronto has high-profile brick-and-mortar dealers where you can walk in and buy over the counter:

Guardian Gold (Dundas Square)

Canadian PMX (Richmond Hill/North Toronto)

Bullion Mart (North York)

Toronto Gold (Bloor St. West)

The Royal Canadian Mint: You can purchase directly from the Mint or through their authorized distributors. Their "Maple Leaf" coins are world-renowned for their purity.

2. The "Bullion Tax Advantage" in Canada

There is a massive benefit to buying in Canada: Investment-grade bullion is GST/HST exempt.

Gold: Must be .995+ pure.

Silver: Must be .999+ pure. As long as you are buying standard bars or Maple Leaf coins, you pay 0% sales tax. If you buy "jewelry" or lower-purity collector coins, you will be charged the full 13% HST in Ontario.

3. The Risks of Importing from the US

If you already own coins in the US and want to bring them across:

Duty-Free: Under USMCA (formerly NAFTA), there are generally no duties on gold/silver coins made in the US, Canada, or Mexico.

The $10,000 Rule: If you are physically carrying more than $10,000 CAD in "monetary instruments" (which includes many legal tender coins) across the border, you must declare it. Failure to do so can lead to immediate seizure of the metal.

Shipping: Shipping across the border involves customs brokerage fees and potential "meltdown" risks if the paperwork isn't perfect.

Would you like me to find the current "Ask" price for a 1oz Gold Maple Leaf at a specific Toronto bank so you can compare it to the NY spot price?

Thursday, February 5, 2026

Energetics

Copilot:

How do storm energetics relate to ocean heat content?

Storm energetics and ocean heat content are tied together so tightly that once you see the mechanism, the whole climate system suddenly makes sense. Storms are heat engines, and the oceans are the fuel tank. When the tank gets fuller, the engines run harder.

Let’s walk through it in a way that respects the physics without drowning in equations.

1. Storms are heat engines

Every major storm—tropical cyclone, nor’easter, atmospheric river, even a thunderstorm—runs on the same basic principle:

They convert heat energy into mechanical energy (winds, updrafts, pressure drops).

The more heat available, the more powerful the engine can become.

But the key is where the heat is stored.

2. The oceans store almost all the excess heat

Since the industrial era:

Over 90% of the excess heat from global warming has gone into the oceans.

Only a small fraction warms the air or melts ice.

This means the oceans are the primary reservoir of climate energy.

Warm water = more evaporation = more latent heat = more storm fuel.

3. How ocean heat powers storms

A. More evaporation

Warm water evaporates faster.

Evaporation injects water vapor into the atmosphere.

Water vapor is not just moisture—it’s stored energy.

When that vapor condenses into clouds and rain, it releases latent heat, which:

strengthens updrafts

deepens low-pressure centers

accelerates winds

This is the core of storm intensification.

B. Higher ocean heat content = deeper warm layers

A shallow warm surface can be churned up by waves, bringing cold water to the surface and weakening a storm.

But with climate warming:

the warm layer extends deeper,

storms churn up warm water instead of cold,

so they don’t weaken as easily.

This is why modern hurricanes can intensify rapidly and stay strong longer.

C. More moisture = heavier rainfall

For every 1°C of warming, the atmosphere holds about 7% more water vapor.

That means:

more intense downpours

more flooding

more extreme snowfall in cold regions

Storms become wetter, not just windier.

4. Different storm types respond differently

Tropical cyclones (hurricanes)

These are the most directly tied to ocean heat.

Argo

Copilot:

Climat change; in what sense has dispersing CO2in the atmosphere 'locked' us in? What is the nature of the lock or locks?

The idea that adding CO₂ to the atmosphere has “locked us in” refers to several overlapping physical, chemical, and socio‑economic mechanisms. They’re different kinds of locks—some rooted in physics, some in ecology, some in infrastructure—and together they explain why climate change is not something we can simply “reverse” on demand.

1. The Physical Carbon Lock: CO₂ Stays for Centuries to Millennia

Once CO₂ is emitted, it doesn’t just vanish.

A large fraction is absorbed by the ocean and biosphere within decades.

But 20–40% of each pulse of CO₂ remains in the atmosphere for thousands of years.

There is no natural fast mechanism that pulls CO₂ back down at the rate we emit it.

This means:

Even if emissions stopped tomorrow, temperatures would remain elevated.

The climate system would not return to pre‑industrial conditions on any human timescale.

This is the most literal “lock”: CO₂ is chemically persistent, and the Earth has no quick drain.

2. The Thermal Inertia Lock: The Ocean Delays and Then Sustains Warming

The oceans absorb most of the excess heat.

They warm slowly because of their enormous heat capacity.

But once warmed, they release that heat slowly, keeping the planet warm for centuries.

This creates a thermal lock:

Even if atmospheric CO₂ stabilized, the oceans would continue warming the atmosphere.

Sea‑level rise from thermal expansion continues long after emissions stop.

3. The Feedback Lock: Warming Triggers Processes That Reinforce Warming

Some feedbacks amplify the initial CO₂‑driven warming:

Melting ice reduces reflectivity (albedo), causing more absorption of sunlight.

Thawing permafrost releases CO₂ and methane.

Warmer oceans absorb less CO₂.

These feedbacks don’t run away into catastrophe, but they make the system harder to cool. They’re like wedges that keep the door from closing.

4. The Ecological Lock: Systems Shift and Don’t Easily Shift Back

Ecosystems reorganize under new climate conditions:

Forests migrate or burn.

Coral reefs bleach and die.

Species ranges shift poleward or uphill.

Once these changes occur, restoring the previous state is not feasible. The biosphere adapts to the new climate, not the old one.

5. The Infrastructure Lock: Our Societies Are Built Around Fossil Energy

This is a human‑made lock:

Cities, transport networks, agriculture, and industry were built assuming cheap fossil fuels.

Energy systems, supply chains, and political structures reinforce continued use.

This is often called carbon lock‑in in the policy literature:

Even when alternatives exist, the sunk costs and institutional inertia slow the transition.

6. The Commitment Lock: We Are Committed to Future Warming Already

Even if emissions stopped today:

The planet would still warm a bit more due to past emissions (the “committed warming”).

Sea levels would continue rising for centuries.

Some regional climate shifts are now unavoidable.

This is not doom—it’s physics. The system responds slowly, and we’ve already nudged it.

So what exactly is “locked”?

You can think of it as a set of nested locks:

The important nuance

Being “locked in” does not mean “helpless.”

It means:

Some warming is unavoidable.

Some impacts are irreversible.

But the magnitude of future change is still entirely in our hands.

Every tonne of CO₂ avoided reduces long-term warming.

Every fraction of a degree avoided prevents irreversible damage.

If you want, we can dig into:

which locks are strongest,

which can be broken,

what realistic pathways exist for mitigation or adaptation,

or how these locks play out specifically in Quebec’s climate trajectory.

You tend to enjoy mapping systems, so we can also build a layered model of the lock‑in dynamics if you want to push deeper.

Tell me again how CO2 behaves. How does it stop heat from escaping the planet? How does it even get absorbed by oceans?

Let’s rebuild the picture from first principles, because the physics is beautifully simple once you see the pieces click together. CO₂ isn’t magic, and it isn’t a “blanket” in the everyday sense. It’s a molecule with very specific vibrational modes that interact with infrared radiation in a way that reshapes how Earth sheds heat to space.

1. How CO₂ actually traps heat

Earth warms the Sun’s shortwave energy and cools itself by emitting longwave infrared radiation back to space. CO₂ interferes with that second step.

The key: CO₂ absorbs infrared at specific wavelengths

CO₂ has vibrational modes—ways the molecule can flex or bend—that resonate with infrared photons around 15 micrometres. When an IR photon at that wavelength tries to escape upward:

CO₂ absorbs it.

The molecule vibrates.

It re‑emits the energy in a random direction.

Half the time, that re‑emission is downward, back toward the surface or lower atmosphere.

This doesn’t “trap” heat permanently. It slows the rate at which heat escapes to space. The planet must then warm until outgoing radiation once again balances incoming sunlight.

Why adding more CO₂ still matters even though absorption bands are “saturated”

A classic misconception is that CO₂’s absorption band is already full, so more CO₂ shouldn’t matter. But:

The center of the band is saturated.

The wings of the band are not.

Adding more CO₂ broadens the wings, raising the altitude at which IR escapes to space.

Higher altitude = colder air = less radiation emitted = warming below.

This is the core greenhouse mechanism.

2. How CO₂ gets absorbed by the oceans

The ocean doesn’t “suck in” CO₂ like a vacuum. It’s chemistry and physics working together.

Step 1: CO₂ dissolves into the surface water

At the air–sea interface, CO₂ molecules collide with the water surface. Some dissolve. Some escape back into the air. The balance depends on:

CO₂ concentration in the air

Temperature of the water

Wind and mixing

Cold water absorbs more CO₂; warm water absorbs less.

Step 2: Once dissolved, CO₂ reacts with water

This is the crucial part. Dissolved CO₂ doesn’t just sit there.

It reacts:

Most of it becomes bicarbonate (HCO₃⁻), which is stable and stays in solution.

This chemical transformation is why the ocean can hold far more carbon than the atmosphere.

Step 3: Mixing carries carbon into the deep ocean

Surface waters exchange CO₂ quickly (years to decades).

Deep ocean circulation stores carbon for centuries to millennia.

This is why the ocean is Earth’s largest active carbon reservoir.

3. Why this creates a “lock-in”

You asked earlier about the nature of the lock. Now you can see the mechanism:

CO₂ persists in the atmosphere for centuries because the ocean–biosphere–atmosphere system only slowly redistributes it.

The ocean absorbs CO₂, but warming reduces its ability to do so.

The radiative effect of CO₂ is immediate and cumulative.

Even if emissions stopped, the elevated CO₂ would continue altering Earth’s energy balance for a very long time.

The lock is physical and chemical, not political or moral.

4. If you want, we can go deeper

We can explore:

Why methane behaves differently

Why water vapor amplifies CO₂’s effect but doesn’t drive it

How radiative transfer is calculated in climate models

Why the ocean’s carbon chemistry is nonlinear

How Quebec’s regional climate responds to these global mechanisms

Just tell me which direction you want to push next.

So what happens to accumulated bicarbonate?

Bicarbonate is where most of the carbon we emit ultimately ends up, but it doesn’t just sit there inertly forever. It moves through a slow, layered set of oceanic and geological processes. Once you see the full chain, you understand why the ocean is both a buffer and a bottleneck.

1. In the short term (years to centuries): bicarbonate just stays dissolved

When CO₂ dissolves into seawater and becomes bicarbonate (HCO₃⁻), it joins the ocean’s enormous dissolved inorganic carbon pool.

About 90% of ocean carbon is in the form of bicarbonate.

It’s stable, so it doesn’t spontaneously revert to CO₂.

It circulates with ocean currents, mixing downward into deeper layers.

This is why the ocean can absorb so much carbon without immediately re‑releasing it.

But this is not permanent storage. It’s slow storage.

2. Over centuries to millennia: bicarbonate participates in the carbonate–silicate cycle

This is where the real long-term lock happens.

A. Bicarbonate + calcium → calcium carbonate (CaCO₃)

Marine organisms—corals, shellfish, plankton—use bicarbonate and calcium to build shells and skeletons.

Some of this CaCO₃:

sinks as dead shells,

accumulates on the seafloor,

becomes sediment.

This is the beginning of geological sequestration.

B. Sediments eventually become rock

Over thousands to millions of years:

carbonate sediments are buried,

compressed,

and turned into limestone.

This is the only truly permanent carbon sink on Earth.

C. Weathering on land feeds the cycle

Rainwater dissolves CO₂ into carbonic acid, which weathers rocks. Weathering releases ions that flow to the ocean and help form more carbonate minerals.

This is the slow thermostat of the planet.

3. Over very long timescales: subduction and volcanism

Some carbonate rocks are subducted into the mantle. A tiny fraction of that carbon returns to the atmosphere through volcanic outgassing.

This is the deep carbon cycle—millions of years long.

4. The important catch: acidification slows the biological pathway

As the ocean absorbs more CO₂:

pH drops,

carbonate ion concentration falls,

organisms have a harder time forming shells.

This means the biological pump weakens, slowing the conversion of bicarbonate into solid carbonate minerals.

So the very process that stores carbon long-term is being impaired by the rate at which we’re adding CO₂.

The key insight:

The ocean can store carbon, but not fast enough to counteract the speed of human emissions.

If you want, we can explore:

why the ocean’s buffering capacity weakens as it warms,

how much more carbon the ocean can realistically absorb,

or how this chemistry plays out in the North Atlantic specifically (which matters for Quebec’s climate trajectory).

Let's look at the climate aspect. More heat means stronger winds, and more powerful storms??

The intuition that “more heat = stronger winds = more powerful storms” is partly right, but the real climate mechanics are more interesting and more nuanced. Heat doesn’t just make things hotter—it changes the energy gradients, moisture availability, and stability of the atmosphere. Storms are engines, and warming changes how those engines run.

Let’s break it down cleanly.

🌡️ 1. Heat is energy — but storms depend on differences in energy

A storm is not powered by absolute temperature.

It’s powered by contrasts:

warm vs. cold air

moist vs. dry air

high vs. low pressure

Warming the planet changes these contrasts in uneven ways.

What increases with warming

More water vapor in the air

More latent heat (the fuel for storms)

More evaporation

More intense rainfall potential

What decreases with warming

The equator‑to‑pole temperature gradient in the lower atmosphere

(because the Arctic warms faster)

This is why some storms get stronger, while some wind patterns weaken.

🌪️ 2. Hurricanes and tropical storms: warming supercharges them

Tropical cyclones feed on:

warm ocean water

humid air

latent heat release

As oceans warm:

Maximum potential intensity increases

Rainfall rates increase dramatically

Rapid intensification becomes more common

Storms hold their strength longer after landfall

But warming does not necessarily increase the number of hurricanes.

It increases the fraction of the strongest ones.

Think: fewer storms overall, but more monsters.

🌧️ 3. Mid‑latitude storms (like those affecting Quebec): the story is different

These storms depend on the temperature contrast between the poles and the mid‑latitudes.

Arctic amplification (the Arctic warming 3–4× faster) weakens that contrast.

This leads to:

A slower, wobblier jet stream

More blocking patterns

More stalled weather systems

More extremes (heat domes, atmospheric rivers, long cold spells)

But not necessarily stronger winds in the classic sense.

The storms become more erratic, not uniformly more powerful.

⚡ 4. Thunderstorms and tornadoes: more fuel, but more complicated dynamics

Warmer air holds more moisture, which increases CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy).

More CAPE = stronger updrafts.

But tornado formation also requires wind shear, which may decrease in some regions.

So:

More intense rainfall

More extreme thunderstorms

Shifts in tornado geography

Not a simple “more tornadoes everywhere” pattern

🌊 5. Atmospheric rivers: supercharged by warming

These long plumes of moisture (especially in the Pacific and Atlantic) intensify because:

Warmer oceans evaporate more water

Warmer air holds more water

This leads to:

Heavier downpours

More flooding

More snow‑to‑rain transitions

Quebec and the Northeast are already seeing this.

🌍 6. So does more heat mean stronger winds?

Sometimes, but not universally.

Where winds get stronger

In tropical cyclones

In some extreme thunderstorms

In high‑altitude jet streaks during certain seasons

In localized downbursts and derechos

Where winds weaken

In the mid‑latitude jet stream (annual average)

In large‑scale storm tracks that depend on polar–equator contrast

Where winds get weirder

Everywhere

Climate change increases variability, not just intensity.

🧩 7. The big picture

Warming doesn’t simply “turn up the volume” on storms.

It rearranges the entire orchestra:

More moisture

More latent heat

More stalled systems

More extremes

More rapid intensification

More rainfall

More flooding

More erratic wind patterns

The climate becomes less stable, less predictable, and more energetic, but not uniformly “windier.”

If you want, we can zoom in on:

how this plays out specifically in Quebec and the St‑Jean‑sur‑Richelieu region

why winter storms in the Northeast are intensifying

how Arctic warming reshapes the jet stream

or how storm energetics relate to ocean heat content

You tend to enjoy the deeper mechanics, so we can go as far into the physics as you like.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography)

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Weaker

DeepSeek:

Climate; why is the Jet Stream dipping south in North America?

Excellent question. The phenomenon you're describing—the Jet Stream dipping southward over North America, often leading to intense cold outbreaks in the eastern U.S. and storms along the boundary—is a complex topic with strong scientific links to climate change.

Here’s a breakdown of the key reasons, moving from the immediate mechanism to the underlying climate change connections.

1. The Immediate Mechanism: Rossby Waves

The Jet Stream is a fast-moving river of air high in the atmosphere (around 30,000-40,000 feet) that marks the boundary between cold polar air and warm subtropical air. It naturally meanders in giant north-south waves called Rossby waves or planetary waves.

When these waves are gentle and move quickly from west to east, weather patterns are relatively stable and mild.

When the waves become amplified (develop very large north-south swings), they move more slowly and can get "stuck" in place. A deep, southward dip is called a trough (bringing cold air south), and a northward bulge is called a ridge (bringing warm air north). The deep southward dip over eastern North America is one such amplified trough.

The critical question is: Why are these waves becoming more amplified and "stuck" more frequently?

2. The Primary Climate Change Link: Arctic Amplification

This is the most significant and widely discussed factor. The Arctic is warming 2-4 times faster than the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification.

Reduced Temperature Gradient: The Jet Stream is driven by the temperature difference between the cold Arctic and the warm tropics. As the Arctic warms rapidly, this north-south temperature gradient weakens.

A Weaker, Wavier Jet: A weaker gradient results in a weaker, slower Jet Stream. Just as a slow-moving river tends to meander more, a slower Jet Stream is more prone to developing large, amplified Rossby waves.

More Persistent Patterns: These large waves tend to move eastward more slowly, causing weather patterns (like a deep southward dip) to persist for days or weeks. This leads to prolonged cold spells, heat waves, or storms in the affected regions.

3. Other Contributing Factors

While Arctic Amplification is central, other elements of a warming climate also play a role:

Warmer Ocean Temperatures & Altered Storm Tracks: Specific sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic can influence where ridges and troughs set up. For example, warm patches in the ocean can pump heat and moisture into the atmosphere, helping to amplify a ridge upstream, which then forces a deeper trough downstream over the continent.

Disruption of the Polar Vortex: Sometimes, the southward dip of cold air is connected to disruptions of the Polar Vortex (a large area of low pressure and cold air near the pole). A warming Arctic can sometimes destabilize this vortex, causing it to stretch or split, sending lobes of frigid air southward into mid-latitudes. This is often behind the most extreme "polar vortex" cold outbreaks.

Natural Variability: Patterns like El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) still play a major role in seasonal jet stream positioning. For instance, during a strong El Niño winter, the Pacific jet stream is often more active and straight, pushing storms into California and the southern U.S., which can also influence downstream patterns.

The "Paradox" Explained

It may seem counterintuitive that a warming planet can cause more severe winter cold outbreaks in specific regions. The key is to think globally and in terms of dynamics, not just local temperature:

Climate is global, weather is local. A southward dip means polar air is displaced to lower latitudes, but that air is still warmer than it would have been decades ago, even during cold outbreaks. Record-breaking absolute cold is becoming rarer.

It's about redistribution of energy. The amplified waves export excess heat from the tropics toward the poles and cold air from the weakened Arctic outward. You get a more "wrinkled" boundary between air masses.

The overall trend is clear: Winters are warming dramatically across North America, but the variability is increasing. The warming trend makes warm spells warmer and more frequent, but the altered jet stream dynamics can occasionally unleash more severe, persistent cold spells.

In summary:

The Jet Stream is dipping south more frequently and persistently due to Arctic Amplification, which weakens the north-south temperature gradient, leading to a slower, wavier Jet Stream. This is further influenced by ocean temperature patterns and natural climate cycles. While this can bring intense cold to parts of North America, it is a symptom of a destabilized climate system and occurs within the context of a strong long-term warming trend.

Cretaceous_E

Copilot:

If all the ice currently covering the planet were to melt, how much land would be left? Is Earth basically a water planet?

Short answer

If all land-based ice on Earth melted, global sea level would rise on the order of 60–70 meters.

Land left: The vast majority of continents sit well above 70 m, so most land would still be there. You’d lose today’s low-lying coasts, river deltas, and many coastal plains, but probably on the order of only a few to maybe 10 percent of current land area would be submerged—not half the continents or anything close.

Surface balance: Right now, Earth is about 71% ocean, 29% land. With a 60–70 m rise, oceans would cover more area and land would shrink somewhat, so you’d be looking at something like roughly three-quarters ocean, one-quarter land (exact numbers depend on detailed topography, but that’s the ballpark).

So…is Earth basically a water planet?

Yes—even in this extreme “all ice melted” scenario, Earth is still dominantly an ocean world by surface area, just a slightly more ocean-heavy one than today. The continents don’t vanish; their shapes and coastlines change dramatically, but large interior regions of North America, South America, Africa, Eurasia, and Australia remain above sea level.

If you want, we can zoom in on a specific region—like Quebec or North America—and talk through what that 60–70 m world would actually look like on the ground.

Does Earth loose much water to outer space over time. Clearly, this is more land than earlier epochs enjoyed...

Earth does lose water to space, but the rate is so small that it barely affects the total ocean volume over geological time. The interesting twist is that Earth’s land area has changed far more because of plate tectonics and continental configuration than because of water loss.

🌍 How much water does Earth actually lose?

Two main escape pathways matter:

1. Hydrogen escape from the upper atmosphere

UV light splits water vapor high in the atmosphere.

The hydrogen escapes to space because it’s extremely light.

Modern estimates put this loss at roughly 1–3 kg of hydrogen per second, which corresponds to about 1–2 liters of water per second once you account for oxygen.

Over a billion years, that adds up to only a few centimeters of ocean depth.

2. Ionospheric escape (oxygen and hydrogen ions)

Solar wind strips ions from the upper atmosphere.

Earth’s magnetic field reduces this loss dramatically compared to Mars or Venus.

Bottom line:

Earth loses water, but so slowly that it would take tens of billions of years to noticeably shrink the oceans—longer than the Sun’s remaining lifetime.

🌊 So why does Earth have more exposed land now than in earlier epochs?

You’re absolutely right: earlier Earth epochs—especially the mid‑Cretaceous and early Paleozoic—had less exposed land and higher sea levels. But this wasn’t because Earth had more water.

The real drivers were:

1. Faster seafloor spreading

Hotter mantle → more buoyant mid‑ocean ridges → ocean basins become shallower.

Shallower basins hold less water → sea level rises globally.

2. No large continental ice sheets

When Antarctica and Greenland weren’t glaciated, all that water was in the oceans.

3. Thermal expansion of seawater

Warmer global temperatures expand ocean volume.

4. Continental arrangement

Supercontinents like Pangaea create large interior basins.

Fragmented continents create more shallow continental shelves.

Result:

During the Cretaceous, sea level was 150–250 m higher than today. Vast areas of what is now land—including much of the U.S. Midwest, Europe, and parts of Africa—were underwater.

This had nothing to do with Earth having more water; it was about how much room the ocean basins had to store it.

🧭 Putting it together

Water loss to space: real but negligible.

Land exposure over time: controlled by tectonics, mantle temperature, and glaciation cycles—not by total water inventory.

Earth today: has more exposed land than many past epochs because ocean basins are deeper and large ice sheets lock up water.

If you want, we can map how Quebec or North America looked during high‑sea‑level epochs like the Cretaceous—it’s a fun comparison to the “all ice melted” scenario you asked about earlier.

* * *

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous%E2%80%93Paleogene_extinction_event

Doxa

Saturday, February 7, 2026

Crypto-linked

E_O_P

Friday, February 6, 2026

T_Trade

Thursday, February 5, 2026

Energetics

Argo

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Weaker

Cretaceous_E

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