Doomed

 It is Valentine's Day and I am home alone... might try to make it to the new

Renaud Bray store where I live. (It's snowing, Oh Hum). These stores have a wonderful 

array of books and cute decorative stuff. R_B is the bookstore near the University of Montreal!!

                                                           *     *     *

Found an interesting opinion piece in the New York Times this morning. Bringing

perspective to the Epstein files brouhaha.

https://archive.ph/BPYLQ

                                                         *     *     *

But first, I need to go avocado shopping...

Copilot:

If I have an avocado that is still hard, could a microwave oven be of any use?

A microwave can soften a hard avocado, but it can’t truly ripen it. Ripening is a biochemical process driven by ethylene gas, and a microwave can’t fake that. What it can do is temporarily make the flesh less rock‑hard so you can mash it in a pinch.

Here’s the honest breakdown.

🥑 What a microwave can do

Warm the flesh, which makes it feel softer.

Loosen the cell structure slightly so it’s easier to mash.

Help if you need guacamole right now and don’t care about perfect flavor.

🥑 What a microwave cannot do

Develop flavor — microwaved avocados stay bland because ripening never happened.

Fix stringiness — underripe avocados often have fibrous texture that heat won’t change.

Create creaminess — that comes from natural ripening, not heat.

⚡ If you still want to try it

Use this only as an emergency hack:

Pierce the skin a few times with a fork (so it doesn’t pop).

Wrap in a paper towel.

Microwave 30 seconds at a time, checking softness.

Stop as soon as it yields slightly under gentle pressure.

It will be warm, softer, and mashable — but it won’t taste like a naturally ripe avocado.

🧪 Why the flavor stays “off”

You’re essentially cooking the avocado, not ripening it. The enzymes that develop the nutty, buttery flavor only activate during natural ethylene-driven ripening. Heat shuts them down.

If you want, we can talk about faster real-ripening methods that actually work (paper bag, banana trick, etc.), or even how to choose avocados that ripen predictably.

How-to-chose avocados...

Here’s a clear, practical way to choose avocados that actually ripen well — and avoid the duds that stay rubbery or turn brown inside. Since you’re in Québec, where supply chains can be a bit uneven, these cues matter even more.

🥑 Step 1 — Look at the stem button

This is the single most reliable indicator.

If the little nub at the top pops off easily and the flesh underneath is green, it’s a good avocado.

If it’s brown underneath, the inside is likely already browning.

If the stem won’t come off, it’s still underripe.

🥑 Step 2 — Check the skin texture

Different varieties behave differently, but for Hass (the most common):

Bumpy, matte, darkening skin → approaching ripe.

Shiny, smooth, bright green → very underripe.

Black with sunken spots → overripe or bruised.

🥑 Step 3 — Use the gentle pressure test

Press near the top (the “neck”), not the belly.

Slight give → ready to eat.

Firm but not rock-hard → will ripen in 1–3 days.

Soft everywhere → likely mushy or stringy inside.

🥑 Step 4 — Avoid these red flags

These almost always mean trouble:

Large flat areas → internal bruising.

Cracks in the skin → overripe or damaged.

Cold spots (from refrigeration) → risk of grey, watery flesh.

Perfectly hard AND very dark → picked too early, may never ripen.

                                                                                         

🥑 Step 6 — For consistent results, buy in pairs

Because even good-looking avocados can surprise you, the best strategy is:

Buy one ready and one unripe.

Let the unripe one ripen at home where conditions are stable.

🥑 Bonus — How to ripen them properly (not with a microwave)

If you want, I can walk you through the fastest reliable ripening methods — paper bag, banana trick, oven (with caveats), or how to slow ripening once it’s perfect.

If you want, we can also talk about why some avocados never ripen at all, which is a surprisingly interesting little biochemical story.

I'm curious; why do some avocados never ripen at all??

Some avocados never ripen because something physically or biochemically went wrong long before you bought them. It’s one of those deceptively simple fruits with a surprisingly fragile supply chain. Here’s the real story — and why you sometimes meet the “eternal rock.”

🥑 1. Picked too early (the #1 culprit)

Avocados only ripen after they’re harvested, but only if they reached physiological maturity on the tree.

If they were picked too young:

They stay rubbery

They never develop oils

They may soften slightly, then turn stringy or rubbery

Sometimes they just sit there like a green stone until they rot

This is extremely common when growers rush harvests.

🥑 2. Cold damage during transport

Avocados are tropical fruits. If they’re exposed to temperatures below about 5–7°C for too long (common in shipping to Québec):

The ripening enzymes get shut down

The flesh turns grey, watery, or fibrous

They soften unevenly or not at all

Sometimes the outside looks perfect but the inside is a disaster

This is called chilling injury, and it’s irreversible.

🥑 3. Ethylene exposure was disrupted

Avocados ripen because they produce and respond to ethylene gas.

If something interferes with that:

Wax coatings that are too thick

Storage in low‑oxygen environments

Chemical treatments meant to delay ripening

…then the fruit can’t “hear” its own ripening signal.

🥑 4. Varietal quirks

Some lesser‑known varieties (especially those not meant for long-distance shipping) can behave unpredictably if they enter the mainstream supply chain. They may:

Ripen unevenly

Stay firm in some zones and mushy in others

Never reach that buttery texture

Most Québec supermarkets carry Hass, but off‑varieties do show up occasionally.

🥑 5. Bruising that stops ripening

If the fruit was dropped or squeezed hard:

The bruised areas oxidize

The enzymes in those zones die

Ripening becomes patchy or stalls entirely

You’ll see this when one half is perfect and the other half is brown rubber.

🧬 The biochemical core of the problem

Ripening requires:

Active ethylene synthesis

Functional cell-wall–softening enzymes

Intact oil bodies in the flesh

Proper temperature range

If any of these are disrupted, the fruit simply can’t complete the ripening cascade.

🥑 Why this happens more often in Québec

You’re in a colder climate with long transport chains:

More chances for cold damage

More aggressive storage treatments

More variability in harvest maturity

So you’ll occasionally get the “never-ripens” even if you choose well.

If you want, I can walk you through how to detect the doomed ones before buying, or how to test at home whether an avocado is likely to ripen or is a lost cause.

Scenario Reporting

This showed up on my Facebook feed this afternoon. Needed more info...

 https://www.facebook.com/share/v/183wQVHb7X/

Gemini:

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/183wQVHb7X/ Is this a possible scenario??

I can’t see the content of that Facebook video from here, so I can’t directly judge whether the specific scenario it shows is realistic, satire, or fabricated.

To give you a meaningful answer, I’d need a short description of what happens in the video (who is involved, what event or outcome is being claimed, and roughly when/where it’s supposed to occur). Once you describe it in a few sentences, I can:

Assess whether it’s plausible given current events and known constraints.

Help you check for common red flags (AI-generated audio/video, miscaptioned old footage, fake “breaking news,” etc.).

Suggest concrete ways to verify it (official sources, reputable news, reverse image/video checks).

Reply with a brief description of the scenario the video is presenting, and I’ll evaluate how likely it is.

Hydro-Quebec just lifted electricity prices to the US in the context of Trumpian intransigence in the current Canada/US trade negotiations...

It’s a politically charged but currently speculative scenario: there is no solid evidence that Hydro‑Québec has suddenly jacked up contracted export prices “as retaliation” in the middle of 2026 trade talks, but Quebec hydropower is a real lever and some non‑contract exports have already tightened.

What is actually happening

New England and New York are indeed heavily integrating Quebec hydropower into their grids through big long‑term contracts and new lines like Champlain Hudson Power Express and New England Clean Energy Connect.

Hydro‑Québec has recently reduced some exports, but the main reasons documented so far are low reservoir levels, higher domestic demand, and spot‑market price conditions, not an official political embargo.

Trump’s team has openly talked about revisiting or even breaking up CUSMA/USMCA and using tariffs aggressively, including on Canadian energy, which logically raises the question of Canadian counter‑leverage.

Is “price revenge” a plausible tool?

As a mechanism, yes: Hydro‑Québec can prioritize the Quebec market, limit discretionary exports, and adjust pricing within the flex allowed by contracts, which would raise power costs and stress for parts of the U.S. Northeast.

However, long‑term power purchase agreements have regulated price formulas and volume commitments, so Hydro‑Québec cannot simply triple the price overnight; most “revenge” would show up by cutting spot‑market sales and being very tough in renegotiations.

How to read that video

A recent YouTube‑style analysis video frames this as “Canada’s $290B electricity revenge,” explicitly presenting it as commentary and scenario‑building, not as a confirmed policy announcement by Hydro‑Québec or the Quebec government.

Canadian and Quebec‑focused reporting so far stresses drought, reservoir management, and market conditions as the drivers of reduced exports, and experts say there is “nothing political” in Hydro‑Québec’s official policy yet.

Bottom line on “possible”

Economically and geopolitically, using Hydro‑Québec exports as leverage in a serious tariff fight is absolutely possible and rational, and parts of that leverage (reduced exports, tighter conditions) are already visible.

As of now, there is no clear public evidence that Quebec has formally “lifted electricity prices to the U.S.” as an explicit retaliatory move tied to ongoing trade negotiations; it’s more an extrapolated scenario than a documented decision.

If you want, you can paste the key claims or on‑screen text from the video, and I can go line‑by‑line and flag which bits are grounded, exaggerated, or pure fiction.

Please proceed...

Here’s a line‑by‑line style breakdown of the scenario implied by that video conceptually (Trump, CUSMA fight, Hydro‑Québec “price revenge”) and how plausible each element is.

1. “Trump is strong‑arming Canada on trade”

Trump’s team has openly signalled they want to reopen CUSMA/USMCA and are willing to threaten tariffs or separate deals with Canada and Mexico.

Using tariffs and brinkmanship as leverage is entirely consistent with Trump’s past and current trade approach and is already being discussed in policy circles for 2026.

Assessment: Highly plausible, and partly already happening in rhetoric and planning.

2. “Canada/Quebec responds with electricity leverage”

Quebec exports significant hydropower into New England and New York; these flows are large, long‑term, and strategically important for U.S. decarbonization goals.

Because of that dependence, limiting discretionary exports, delaying new capacity, or driving a harder bargain in renewals would absolutely function as economic leverage, even if not branded as “revenge.”

Assessment: Strategically very plausible; hydropower is a real pressure point, especially in a hostile trade climate.

​

3. “Hydro‑Québec suddenly hikes prices to punish the U.S.”

Long‑term power purchase agreements usually specify price formulas tied to inflation, fuel benchmarks, or indexed adjustments; Hydro‑Québec cannot unilaterally spike those contract prices at will.

Where they do have room is in:

Reducing exports when reservoirs are low or domestic demand is high.

Cutting back on spot‑market sales where prices are more flexible.

Being much tougher on the terms of future contracts or expansions.

These moves raise overall costs and reliability risks for U.S. buyers without breaking existing deals.

Assessment: “Revenge” as an instant price shock is overstated; gradual tightening and hardball negotiating are realistic tools and are partly visible already via reduced exports.

4. “New England goes dark / blackout scenario”

New England and parts of New York are increasingly reliant on imports, not just from Quebec but also from other states and Canadian provinces; their grid operators plan for contingencies like reduced imports.

A sudden total cutoff of Quebec power would be serious and could force peak‑time emergency measures, but a full regional blackout purely from Quebec’s pricing decisions is unlikely; grid planning and redundancy exist specifically to avoid that.

Assessment: Local price spikes and reliability stress are plausible; a Hollywood‑style blackout purely from Quebec “revenge” is exaggerated.

5. “Is this already happening right now?”

Recent reporting links Hydro‑Québec’s lower net exports mainly to low water levels, reservoir management, and higher domestic demand, not a declared political retaliation against the U.S.

Analysts and utilities have not confirmed any official policy that ties export pricing or flows explicitly to Trump‑era tariff threats; most of the dramatic “revenge” framing comes from commentators and YouTube‑style geopolitics channels.

Assessment: The structure of the scenario is realistic, but at present it is more speculation plus normal market/water constraints than an announced, weaponized policy shift.

6. What the most realistic version looks like

If things escalate, the believable path is:

Trump team pushes tariffs/quotas or uses CUSMA threats against Canada.

Ottawa and Quebec quietly prioritize domestic supply and climate goals, slow‑roll new export projects, reduce spot‑market sales, and negotiate harder terms for future contracts to the U.S.

U.S. Northeast sees higher prices, more vulnerability at peak, and political backlash about over‑reliance on foreign power, but not an overnight collapse of the grid.

If you want to, you can transcribe any specific lines or claims from the video (numbers, dates, “secret deal” allegations, etc.), and I’ll tag each as “known fact,” “reasonable extrapolation,” or “unlikely/unsupported.”

️️

Valentine's_26

                                                                                             

The Egyptian deity Bastet, goddess of love.

Bronze statue, from Le musée du Louvre.

                                                               *     *     *

Picture_It

 Looks to me like the assailant gets his eyebrows done:

                                                                                   

Using Affinity Canva online.

*     *     *

Nancy Guthrie abductor photo; has anyone produced a true color version of the released photo?

Here’s the clearest answer based on everything currently available.

Has anyone produced a true‑color version of the Nancy Guthrie abductor photo?

All publicly released images of the suspect in the Nancy Guthrie case are black‑and‑white surveillance stills taken from her doorbell/Nest camera. Every major outlet reporting on the case shows the same monochrome frames, and none of the sources indicate that a color‑corrected or “true color” reconstruction has been produced by law enforcement or the media.

What the sources confirm

The FBI released black‑and‑white photographs and two short videos of the masked individual. These are the only officially distributed images. 

The images show a person in a jacket, ski mask, gloves, and backpack, tampering with the camera. All outlets describe them as surveillance stills with no mention of color versions. 

Additional stills recovered from the doorbell camera are also monochrome and described only as surveillance images. 

Conclusion

As of the latest reporting, no true‑color or color‑restored version of the abductor photo has been released by the FBI, Pima County Sheriff’s Department, or any reputable news organization. All available imagery remains in the original black‑and‑white surveillance format.

If you want, I can walk you through:

why many doorbell cameras record in monochrome under certain conditions,

whether a true‑color reconstruction would even be technically feasible,

or how to evaluate claims if such an image ever appears online.

If not true color, perhaps a more accurate black and white. The backpack appears whitish, but the FBI has said it is black!?

You’re noticing something real — and it’s one of the reasons the public has been confused by the FBI’s description. Let me walk you through what’s going on, because the “white backpack vs. black backpack” contradiction actually has a very straightforward technical explanation.

Why the backpack looks white even if it’s actually black

Most doorbell cameras (Ring, Nest, Eufy, etc.) switch into infrared night‑vision mode whenever ambient light drops below a threshold. When that happens:

The camera stops using visible light.

It illuminates the scene with infrared LEDs.

The sensor records monochrome IR reflectance, not true brightness.

Dark synthetic materials — especially nylon, polyester, and ballistic fabric — often reflect IR strongly, making them appear light gray or white.

So a black backpack can easily look pale or even glowing in IR mode.

This is extremely common in surveillance footage.

Typical IR artifacts that match what you’re seeing

Black jackets appear light gray.

Black gloves look pale.

Black backpacks can look almost white.

Skin tones, hair, and fabric dyes all lose their visible‑light characteristics.

If the suspect was close to the camera, the IR LEDs would have washed the scene even more, exaggerating the effect.

Has anyone produced a “more accurate” black‑and‑white version?

Based on all available reporting, no.

No outlet or agency has released:

a contrast‑corrected version

a gamma‑adjusted version

a visible‑light reconstruction

or a forensic enhancement showing truer tonal values

Everything in circulation is the raw IR surveillance still or a slightly compressed media copy.

Law enforcement does have access to the original high‑bit‑depth file, but they have not released any enhanced version to the public.

Why the FBI can confidently say the backpack is black

Because they’re not relying on the IR image. They’re relying on:

Visible‑light footage from earlier in the evening (if available)

Witness statements

Recovered physical evidence

Retail identification (if they know the model)

Agencies routinely clarify color when the surveillance image is misleading.

If you want, I can help you evaluate:

what tonal cues in the IR image suggest the backpack’s real color

whether the image shows any compression artifacts that distort brightness

what a “best possible” grayscale correction would look like (conceptually — without generating images)

how to interpret IR reflectance in consumer cameras

Just tell me which direction you want to explore.

What might a best possible grayscale correction look like?

A “best possible” grayscale correction doesn’t try to invent color and it doesn’t try to guess what the scene should look like. Instead, it tries to undo the distortions caused by:

infrared illumination

blown‑out highlights from the IR LEDs

crushed shadows

compression artifacts

automatic gain control (AGC)

the camera’s night‑mode contrast curve

Let me show you what that means in practice — conceptually, not as an image.

⭐ What a high‑quality grayscale correction would aim to do

1. Recover midtones

IR night‑vision tends to push everything into extremes:

bright objects become too bright

dark objects become too dark

A corrected version would:

lower the highlights

lift the shadows

expand the midtone range

This makes materials look more “natural” in grayscale, even though they’re still IR‑based.

2. Reduce IR over‑reflection

Synthetic fabrics (nylon, polyester, ballistic weave) reflect IR strongly, which is why the backpack looks white.

A corrected version would:

reduce the reflectance peak

bring the backpack down from “white” to a more realistic light gray

preserve texture instead of letting it blow out

This doesn’t make the backpack look black — because IR can’t tell you that — but it makes the image less misleading.

3. Normalize the contrast curve

Doorbell cameras apply a harsh, nonlinear contrast curve in night mode.

A corrected version would:

apply a gentler gamma

reduce the “crushed” look

reveal subtle tonal differences in clothing, gloves, and the mask

This helps distinguish materials that originally looked like one flat tone.

4. Remove compression artifacts

Surveillance stills often have:

blocky JPEG artifacts

ringing around edges

noise from low‑light amplification

A corrected version would:

smooth noise

sharpen edges slightly

avoid over‑sharpening, which creates halos

This makes the image clearer without inventing detail.

⭐ So what would the backpack look like after correction?

Even after the best possible correction, the backpack would likely appear:

light gray, not white

with more visible texture

with less glare from IR reflection

still not “black,” because IR cannot show true visible‑light color

This is exactly why the FBI can say “black backpack” while the public sees “white” — the camera is lying in IR space.

⭐ What a corrected image would not do

A proper correction cannot:

reveal true color

turn the backpack black

reconstruct visible‑light information

add detail that wasn’t captured

It can only make the IR image less misleading.

If you want, I can walk you through:

how to interpret the tonal values in the actual released still

what parts of the image are most distorted by IR

how forensic analysts typically approach this kind of enhancement

or what a corrected tonal histogram would look like

Just tell me which angle you want to explore next.

Montreal_Finantial

 Is there some form of Stock Exchange in Montreal?

Yes — Montreal absolutely has a major exchange, though its role today is more specialized than a traditional stock exchange.

Montréal Exchange (Bourse de Montréal)

It does exist, but it is not a stock exchange in the classic sense anymore.

The Montréal Exchange (MX) is now Canada’s primary derivatives exchange, focused on:

Futures

Options

Equity index derivatives

Currency, ETF, energy, and interest‑rate derivatives

Historical note

It used to be the Montreal Stock Exchange (MSE), founded in the 19th century.

Over time, equity trading migrated to the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), and Montreal became the national hub for derivatives.

It has been located in the Tour de la Bourse since 1965.

Ownership

The Montréal Exchange is owned by the TMX Group, the same parent company that operates the TSX and TSX Venture Exchange.

If you’re curious, I can also break down how derivatives trading differs from stock trading, or how the MX fits into Canada’s broader financial ecosystem.

Explain derivatives trading to me...

Here’s a clear, grounded explanation of derivatives trading, built from the sources we just pulled in and shaped into something intuitive and practical for you.

What a derivative actually is

A derivative is simply a financial contract whose value comes from another asset — a stock, an index, a currency, a commodity, even interest rates.   

You’re not buying the asset itself; you’re trading a contract about that asset.

Think of it as:

Underlying asset → determines the price of → derivative contract

Why derivatives exist

According to multiple financial guides, derivatives serve two main purposes:

Hedging — reducing risk by locking in prices or protecting against adverse moves. 

Speculation — taking a position on where prices will go, often with leverage. 

Professionals use them constantly because they allow exposure without owning the underlying asset.

The main types (the “big four”)

Most sources converge on these categories:

Futures — obligation to buy/sell an asset at a set price on a future date.

Options — right (but not obligation) to buy/sell at a set price before a date.

Swaps — exchange of cash flows (e.g., fixed vs variable interest rates).

Forwards — like futures but privately negotiated (over‑the‑counter).

How derivatives work in practice

A derivative contract specifies:

the underlying asset

the contract size

the expiration date

the strike price (for options)

margin requirements (for futures)

The contract’s price moves as the underlying asset moves.

If the underlying rises, certain derivatives gain value; if it falls, they lose value.

Why traders and institutions use them

Sources highlight several advantages:

Risk management — airlines hedge fuel prices; exporters hedge currency risk. 

Leverage — small upfront capital controls a large position.

Access — exposure to markets that might be hard to trade directly.

The risks (this part matters)

Derivatives can magnify both gains and losses.

Key risks include:

Leverage risk — small moves can wipe out capital.

Liquidity risk — some contracts are harder to exit.

Counterparty risk — especially in OTC contracts.

Exchange‑traded vs OTC

Exchange‑traded derivatives (like those on the Montréal Exchange) are standardized and cleared through a central clearinghouse, reducing counterparty risk.

OTC derivatives are customized but riskier because they rely on the creditworthiness of the counterparty.

If you want, we can go deeper into:

how options pricing works (Black‑Scholes, implied volatility)

how futures margining works

why the Monréal Exchange specializes in derivatives

or how derivatives affect real‑world markets (commodities, currencies, interest rates)

Just tell me where you want to take this next.

Explain counterparty risk to me...

Counterparty risk is one of those concepts that sounds abstract until you see how it plays out in real transactions. Let’s make it concrete and intuitive.

What counterparty risk actually is

It’s the risk that the other party in a financial contract fails to meet their obligation.

In other words:

You and I make a deal.

If I don’t pay or you don’t deliver, that failure is the counterparty risk.

Derivatives make this especially important because the contracts often stretch into the future, and the value can swing dramatically before settlement.

Why it matters so much in derivatives

Derivatives aren’t like buying a stock, where you pay and receive the shares instantly.

They’re promises about future actions:

A futures contract obligates both sides to transact later.

An option contract gives one side a right that the other must honor.

A swap involves exchanging cash flows over months or years.

If one party collapses financially, the other may be left exposed.

Real‑world examples

Here’s how counterparty risk shows up in practice:

1. Futures and options (exchange‑traded)

On exchanges like the Montréal Exchange, a clearinghouse stands between buyers and sellers.

This dramatically reduces counterparty risk because:

The clearinghouse guarantees performance.

Both sides post margin (collateral).

Positions are marked to market daily.

This is why exchange‑traded derivatives are considered safer.

2. OTC derivatives (private contracts)

This is where counterparty risk becomes serious.

Imagine a company enters a multi‑year interest‑rate swap with a bank.

If the bank fails halfway through, the company may lose:

expected payments

hedging protection

the cost of replacing the contract at worse market terms

This is exactly what happened during the 2008 financial crisis — when Lehman Brothers collapsed, thousands of OTC derivative contracts suddenly had no performing counterparty.

What increases counterparty risk

Long contract duration

High leverage

Volatile underlying assets

Lack of collateral

Private, customized contracts (OTC)

Weak creditworthiness of the counterparty

How markets reduce it

Collateral/margin requirements

Central clearinghouses

Daily settlement

Credit ratings and credit default swaps

Netting agreements (offsetting exposures)

Why it’s still unavoidable

Even with all the safeguards, counterparty risk can never be fully eliminated — only managed.

Any contract that depends on someone else performing in the future carries this risk.

If you want, we can go deeper into:

how clearinghouses actually guarantee trades

how margin works and why it prevents cascading failures

the difference between default risk and counterparty risk

or how counterparty risk shows up in currency markets, commodities, or interest‑rate swaps

Just tell me where you want to take it next.

So why Montreal; who are the clients for this?

Here’s the real story behind why Montréal became Canada’s derivatives hub and who actually uses the Montréal Exchange (MX). The short version: it’s not about retail traders in Quebec — it’s about institutional risk management across Canada and abroad.

🌐 Why Montréal?

The Montréal Exchange didn’t “win” derivatives by accident. Several structural forces pushed it there:

1. Historical specialization

When Canada consolidated its financial markets, Toronto became the centre for equities, while Montréal — already running a sophisticated options market — was designated the national centre for derivatives.

This specialization was later formalized under the TMX Group.

2. The clearinghouse is in Montréal

The Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation (CDCC) — the central counterparty that guarantees all exchange‑traded derivatives in Canada — is headquartered in Montréal.

It clears futures, options, and options on futures, and has 30+ major financial institutions as clearing members .

Having the clearinghouse and the exchange in the same city creates a tightly integrated ecosystem.

3. Regulatory and operational efficiency

Canada benefits from having one national derivatives exchange rather than fragmented regional ones.

Montréal already had the infrastructure, expertise, and regulatory framework, so it became the logical home.

4. A niche that complements Toronto

Toronto handles:

stocks

corporate finance

banking headquarters

Montréal handles:

interest‑rate futures

equity index futures

options on equities, ETFs, currencies

risk‑management products for institutions

This division reduces duplication and increases liquidity.

🧩 So who are the clients?

This is the part most people don’t realize: the Montréal Exchange is not built for retail traders.

Its core clients are institutional.

Based on TMX’s own client‑facing materials and contact directories, the main users are:

1. Major Canadian banks and broker‑dealers

These are the clearing members of CDCC — the ones who actually guarantee trades.

Examples include the big Canadian banks and global dealers operating in Canada.

CDCC explicitly lists 30+ clearing members, mostly large financial institutions .

2. Pension funds and asset managers

Think:

CPP Investments

Quebec’s CDPQ

Ontario Teachers’

Large mutual fund and ETF providers

They use derivatives to hedge:

interest‑rate exposure

equity index exposure

currency exposure

3. Insurance companies

They hedge long‑duration liabilities using interest‑rate derivatives (e.g., BAX futures).

4. Hedge funds and proprietary trading firms

These firms use:

index futures (SXF)

options on TSX‑60

ETF options

currency options

The Montréal Exchange’s product list includes equity, ETF, index, and currency derivatives designed for these users .

5. International institutions

TMX even has dedicated international business development managers in London and Europe, which tells you they actively court global clients .

6. Data and analytics clients

TMX markets a full analytics suite for institutions needing daily derivative statistics (volatility, open interest, Greeks, etc.) .

🧠 What this means in practice

The Montréal Exchange is essentially:

Canada’s risk‑management engine.

It’s where:

banks hedge interest‑rate exposure

pension funds hedge equity exposure

ETF providers manage creation/redemption risk

insurers hedge long‑term liabilities

global firms access Canadian markets

Retail traders can trade MX options through brokers, but they are a tiny fraction of volume.

If you want, I can also map out:

how the MX’s main products (BAX, SXF, SXO, ETF options) are used by institutions

how liquidity concentrates in certain contracts

how Montréal’s derivatives ecosystem compares to Chicago, London, or Eurex

Just tell me where you want to go next.

Financial

 Decided to check in on financial matters this morning. Yes, the Canadian dollar is doing

well with respect to the USD, but not so much with respect to other currencies. And since we

are not expected to buy US goods, some might want to think differently about the situation.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-canadian-dollar-missing-currency-182912364.html

and then, how long might this advantage with respect to the American currency last...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-debt-expected-to-balloon-cbo-says-here-s-what-to-know/ar-AA1WastE?ocid=winp2fptaskbar&cvid=b753ca2657094357ca2f9b8acc3ccc09&ei=39

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Gemini:

How are gold and silver trading recently?

                                                                                      

Key Drivers Behind the Trading Activity

The Fed Factor: Stronger-than-expected US jobs data (130k new jobs) released recently has pushed expectations for interest rate cuts further into the year (now eyeing July instead of June). This usually weighs on gold, but safe-haven demand is keeping prices afloat.

The Gold-Silver Ratio: This ratio recently swung from a multi-year low of 44 (meaning silver was very expensive relative to gold) back up to over 60. This suggests the market is "normalizing" after silver's speculative frenzy in January.

Geopolitical & Structural Support: Despite the price drops, central banks continue to accumulate gold at record levels. Analysts at JP Morgan and BofA remain bullish, with some 2026 year-end targets for gold still sitting between $5,500 and $6,000.

What’s Next?

Traders are currently watching the $5,138 resistance level for gold. A break above that could signal a return to the all-time highs, while silver needs to clear $84 to regain its previous momentum.

Note: The current volatility means "paper" prices (futures) and "physical" prices (bars/coins) have occasionally diverged, with physical premiums remaining high due to strong retail demand.

Would you like me to look into specific mining stocks or ETFs (like GLD or SLV) to see how they are reflecting these price moves?

What is an ETF?

Think of an ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) as a "basket" of different assets—like stocks, bonds, or commodities—that you can buy and sell on the stock market just like a single share of a company.

Instead of buying 50 different tech stocks or 10 different types of gold bars, you buy one share of an ETF that holds those things for you.

How an ETF Works

Feature Description

The "Basket" An ETF can hold hundreds of assets (e.g., the S&P 500) or just one specific asset (e.g., Physical Gold).

Trading Unlike Mutual Funds, which only price once a day, ETFs trade all day long on exchanges like the NYSE.

Diversification It allows you to spread your risk. If one company in the basket fails, the others can keep the fund stable.

Cost They are generally cheaper than Mutual Funds because they are often "passive"—they just track an index rather than having a manager picking stocks.

The Main Types of ETFs

Stock ETFs: These track a specific index (like the S&P 500) or a sector (like AI, Green Energy, or Healthcare).

Bond ETFs: These provide a way to invest in government or corporate debt.

Commodity ETFs: This is how many people trade gold and silver. Instead of storing heavy metal in your basement, you buy an ETF like GLD (Gold) or SLV (Silver) that represents ownership of the metal held in a vault.

Inverse/Leveraged ETFs: These are "betting" funds designed to go up when the market goes down, or to double/triple the daily move of an index. (Warning: These are high-risk!)

Why People Use Them

Lower Barrier to Entry: You can buy a "piece" of the entire gold market for the price of one share (currently around $460 for GLD), which is much cheaper than buying a 1oz gold bar.

Liquidity: You can sell your position instantly during market hours.

Transparency: You can see exactly what assets the fund holds every single day.

The Catch: Since ETFs are managed by companies (like BlackRock or Vanguard), they charge a small annual fee called an Expense Ratio. Usually, this is very low (e.g., 0.03% to 0.40%), but it's something to keep an eye on.

Would you like me to compare a few specific Gold or Silver ETFs so you can see how their fees and performance differ?

I am in Canada. Do I have access to any ETFs or are these particular to New York?

You definitely have access! Being in Canada, you actually have two main ways to buy ETFs. You can buy them directly on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) in Canadian dollars, or you can use your Canadian brokerage account to buy US-listed ETFs on New York exchanges (NYSE/NASDAQ) in US dollars.

Here is the breakdown of your options:

                                                                                          

Why choose one over the other?

Convenience: Canadian ETFs (like CGL) are better if you just want to use the CAD sitting in your bank account.

Liquidity: US ETFs (like GLD) are much larger. If you are trading millions of dollars, the "bid-ask spread" is tighter in New York.

Taxes: If you hold US-listed ETFs in a TFSA, the US government will take a 15% withholding tax on any dividends. However, if you hold them in an RRSP, they are generally exempt from this tax due to a treaty.

A Pro-Tip for Canadians: "Hedging"

When you look at Canadian gold ETFs, you’ll see some are "Hedged" and some are "Unhedged."

Hedged (CGL): You only care about the price of gold. If gold goes up 5%, your ETF goes up 5%.

Unhedged (CGL.C): You are betting on gold and the US Dollar. Since gold is priced globally in USD, if the US Dollar gets stronger while you own gold, you actually make an extra profit when you convert back to CAD.

Would you like me to explain how to buy these within a TFSA or RRSP to minimize your taxes?

Bastet

 It finally got the better of me: what does the 'tectonic' - as in tectonic plates -

actually mean . Turns out it means 'covering', thus tectonic plates cover the Earth.

It was a chase to get there:

                                                                                   

Ha! There it is. The word 'architecture' contains techtonic...

Going to the French Wikipedia:

La tectonique des plaques (du latin tardif tectonicus, dérivé du grec τεκτονικός / tektonikós, « de construction ») est un modèle scientifique expliquant la dynamique globale de la lithosphère terrestre. 

                                                                                   

There we have it, from a 1934 French-language dictionary!!

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Decided to go back to that Geology primer I found a while ago. It has been a lifelong

quest for me, making sense of rocks, minerals, elements. One can study Chemistry and I have

but the back-story that makes it all make sense is Geology: rocks and minerals. and this is

far from over in my mind.

There are three kinds of rock: igneous, metamorphic and sedimentary. The rock cycle:

                                                                                 

And where would we be without Copilot:

Chemistry; why is Fe3+ oxidized, while Fe2+ reduced. The first is said to appear red, and the second green??

Here’s the clean, chemistry‑grounded explanation you’re looking for — and why the colors make sense once you connect oxidation states, electron transitions, and ligand field effects.

          

                                                                                           

        

                                                                                                                     

If you want, we can go deeper into:

why Fe³⁺ hydrolyzes so aggressively

how chloride vs sulfate vs cyanide ligands change the colors

why Fe²⁺ is air‑sensitive and slowly oxidizes in solution

Just tell me where you want to take it next.

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Calcite CaCO3:

https://egyptianimports.com/products/bastet-cat-alabaster-statue-made-in-egypt-370450515?currency=USD

                                                                                  

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*     *     *

*     *     *

Copilot:

What is hydrolyis: is it just the action of water or carbonic acid as well?

Great question, Louise — and the fact that you have both the weathering chapter and the Wikipedia hydrolysis page open makes this the perfect moment to untangle the two meanings of hydrolysis.

Let’s anchor the answer in both sources you’re viewing, without treating the page content as instructions.

🧪 What hydrolysis means in general chemistry

(From the Wikipedia page you have open )

In chemistry, hydrolysis is any reaction where a water molecule breaks a chemical bond.

Water splits into H⁺ and OH⁻, and those pieces attach to the fragments of the molecule being broken.

So in the broad chemical sense:

Hydrolysis = water participates directly

It can be acid‑catalyzed, base‑catalyzed, or enzyme‑catalyzed

It doesn’t require carbonic acid specifically

This is the definition used in organic chemistry, biochemistry, and industrial chemistry.

🪨 What hydrolysis means in geology / weathering

In geology, the word is used more narrowly.

When your weathering chapter talks about hydrolysis, it means:

Water + carbon dioxide → carbonic acid → reacts with silicate minerals

So in Earth‑surface conditions:

Rainwater absorbs CO₂

It becomes weak carbonic acid (H₂CO₃)

That acid attacks feldspar and other aluminosilicates

The mineral breaks down into clay + dissolved ions

So in geology:

Hydrolysis = chemical weathering by slightly acidic water, not pure water alone.

This is why feldspar breaks down so readily, while quartz barely reacts.

🧩 So to answer your question directly

Is hydrolysis just the action of water?

In general chemistry: Yes — hydrolysis is water breaking bonds.

Does carbonic acid count?

In geology: Absolutely — carbonic acid is the active agent in hydrolytic weathering.

Geologists use “hydrolysis” to mean acidic water reacting with silicate minerals, not just neutral water.

🧱 Why the distinction matters

In chemistry, hydrolysis is a broad category of reactions.

In geology, hydrolysis is a specific weathering mechanism driven by carbonic acid in rainwater.

That’s why your geology text emphasizes CO₂-rich water, while Wikipedia gives the general chemical definition.

If you want, we can walk through the exact feldspar → kaolinite reaction and show where the hydrogen and hydroxyl groups end up.

Tell me about quartz...

Absolutely — let’s talk about quartz, and I’ll ground the explanation in the geology chapter you have open while keeping it clear and engaging. Quartz shows up repeatedly in that text because it’s the quiet heavyweight of Earth’s crust.

Here’s the full picture, Louise.

🌟 Quartz: the unbreakable minimalist of the mineral world

(citing the geology chapter where relevant )

What quartz is

Quartz is a silicate mineral with the formula SiO₂.

It’s part of the felsic end of the igneous spectrum — the cool‑crystallizing, low‑temperature, stable minerals.

It forms in:

Granite

Rhyolite

Pegmatites

Hydrothermal veins

Sedimentary environments (as chert, microcrystalline silica)

🧱 Why quartz is everywhere

Your geology chapter emphasizes this point:

Quartz is extremely resistant to chemical weathering because its Si–O bonds are incredibly strong.

This is why:

Feldspar → clay

Mafic minerals → ions + oxides

Quartz → stays quartz

It’s the last mineral standing in the Goldich weathering series.

🌧️ Weathering behavior

Quartz barely reacts with carbonic acid or hydrolysis.

In the chapter, it’s singled out as the mineral that does not break down under typical surface conditions.

This is why:

Beach sand is mostly quartz

Desert dunes are mostly quartz

Mature river sediments are quartz-rich

Quartz grains survive multiple erosion–transport cycles

Quartz is the mineral equivalent of a cast‑iron pan: simple, tough, and nearly indestructible.

🪨 Quartz in sedimentary rocks

Quartz shows up in several forms:

1. Quartz grains in sandstone

The chapter notes that quartz is the most common sediment grain because of its hardness and chemical resistance.

2. Chert

A microcrystalline form of quartz that precipitates from silica-rich groundwater.

3. Siliceous ooze → chert

Biogenic silica from diatoms and radiolarians accumulates on the deep ocean floor and lithifies into chert.

🔬 Quartz in igneous rocks

Quartz crystallizes at low temperatures (~700°C), which is why it appears in:

Granite

Rhyolite

Pegmatites

This low-temperature stability is exactly why it resists weathering at Earth’s surface — it’s already close to equilibrium.

🧭 Quartz as a provenance tool

Your chapter mentions zircon as the classic provenance mineral, but quartz also helps reconstruct sediment history because:

It survives long transport

It rounds slowly

It accumulates in high‑maturity environments

A quartz‑rich sandstone (quartz arenite) tells you the sediment has been recycled many times.

🧩 The simplest summary

Quartz is the endurance athlete of minerals:

Hard (Mohs 7)

Chemically resistant

Common

Survives weathering

Dominates mature sediments

If feldspar is the mineral that changes, quartz is the mineral that persists.

If you want, we can go deeper into:

Why Si–O bonds are so strong

How quartz transitions into chert

How to identify quartz in hand sample

Why quartz-rich sands dominate Earth’s deserts

Just tell me where you want to take it next.