Migrations

 Had  bit of a chat about migration patterns, with Copilot, a few  days ago. Or

rather Copilot had a little talk with me...Worth the read:

Copilot: 

What percentage of South Africa is white?

About 7% of South Africa’s population is white in 2025. According to the latest mid-year 

estimates from Statistics South Africa, the white population continues to decline both in 

absolute numbers and as a share of the total population.

📊 Current Demographic Breakdown

Total population (2025): ~63–64.7 million people

White population share: ~7% (around 4.4–4.5 million individuals)

Trend: The white population is the only demographic group in South Africa that is 

shrinking, due to factors such as lower birth rates and emigration.

🔎 Historical Context

In the mid-1990s, whites made up about 10–11% of South Africa’s population.

By 2011 (census data), this had dropped to 8.9%.

Today, it has fallen further to around 7%, reflecting a long-term downward trend.

📉 Why the Decline?

Emigration: Many white South Africans have left for countries like Australia, the UK, 

and Canada.

Lower fertility rates: White families tend to have fewer children compared to other 

demographic groups.

Population growth elsewhere: Black African, Coloured, and Indian/Asian populations 

are growing faster, shifting the overall balance.

🌍 Comparative Note

South Africa remains one of the most diverse countries in Africa, but the demographic 

balance has shifted significantly over the past 30 years. The white population is now 

proportionally smaller than in other multi-ethnic nations like Namibia (where whites 

are ~6%) or Zimbabwe (where whites are <1%).

✅ In summary: Whites make up about 7% of South Africa’s population in 2025, a share 

that has steadily declined from over 10% in the 1990s due to emigration and demographic 

trends.

Louise, since you enjoy comparative modeling, would you like me to build a timeline 

chart of South Africa’s demographic shifts (from 1990 to 2025) so you can visualize how the 

percentages have changed over time?

What percentage of London's population is Black?

Around 13–14% of London’s population identifies as Black (African, Caribbean, or Other Black) according to the 2021 Census.

📊 Breakdown of London’s Ethnic Composition

Total population (2021 Census): ~8.9 million people

Black population share: ~13.5% (about 1.2 million individuals)

Other major groups:

White (all categories): ~54%

Asian (Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Chinese, Other Asian): ~20%

Mixed/Other ethnic groups: ~12%

🔎 Key Notes

London is the most ethnically diverse region in England and Wales, with the highest 

proportion of Black, Asian, and minority ethnic (BAME) residents.

The Black population is concentrated in boroughs such as Lewisham, Lambeth, 

Southwark, Hackney, and Croydon, where percentages are significantly higher than 

the London average.

The proportion of Black Londoners has remained relatively stable since the 2011 Census 

(when it was ~13%), though the African subgroup has grown faster than the Caribbean 

subgroup, reflecting migration and demographic trends.

🌍 Comparative Context

London’s Black population percentage is much higher than the England and Wales average, 

which is only about 4% nationally.

This makes London a cultural hub for Black British communities, with strong influence in 

politics, arts, music, and business.

✅ In summary: About 13–14% of Londoners are Black, making up one of the largest 

minority groups in the city and contributing to its status as one of the most multicultural 

capitals in the world.

Louise, since you enjoy comparative modeling, would you like me to build a side‑by‑side 

table comparing London’s ethnic composition with the rest of England and Wales? It would 

highlight just how distinct London’s demographics are.

What percentage of Paris' population is Arab?

There are no official statistics on the “Arab” population in Paris, but estimates suggest 

that people of North African origin (Algerian, Moroccan, Tunisian) make up roughly 

10–15% of the Paris metropolitan area’s population.

📊 Why No Exact Number?

France does not collect ethnic or religious data in its census. The French constitution 

prohibits official statistics based on race or ethnicity.

As a result, there is no “Arab” category in demographic surveys. Instead, researchers 

rely on immigration records, birthplace data, and independent studies to estimate.

🔎 Estimates from Research

The Paris metropolitan area (Île-de-France) has about 11.3 million residents (2025).

Independent studies and fact-checks suggest that Muslims make up 12–15% of the 

Paris region.

Since most Muslims in Paris are of North African descent (Algerian, Moroccan, 

Tunisian), this is often used as a proxy for the “Arab” population.

That translates to about 1.3–1.7 million people of Arab/North African origin in Paris 

and its suburbs.

🌍 Context

France overall has the largest Muslim population in Western Europe, estimated at 

9–10% nationally.

The Paris region has a higher concentration due to historical migration patterns, especially 

from Algeria (a former French colony).

Communities are particularly strong in Seine-Saint-Denis (93) and other northern/eastern 

suburbs, where the share of residents of North African origin is significantly higher 

than the city average.

⚖️ Important Caveat

“Arab” ≠ “Muslim”: not all Arabs are Muslim, and not all Muslims are Arab. Paris also 

has Muslim communities from Turkey, Sub-Saharan Africa, and elsewhere.

The 10–15% figure is therefore an approximation, not a precise census statistic.

✅ In summary: About 10–15% of Paris’s population is of Arab/North African origin, 

but France does not officially record ethnic data, so this figure is based on independent 

estimates using religion and immigration proxies.

Louise, since you enjoy comparative modeling, would you like me to build a side‑by‑side 

table comparing Paris, London, and Berlin’s estimated Arab/Muslim population shares? 

It would highlight how Paris stands out in Western Europe.

So ethnic minorities congregate in very large European cities.,,

You’ve spotted a very real demographic pattern 🌍. Ethnic minorities in Europe are 

disproportionately concentrated in major metropolitan areas rather than smaller towns 

or rural regions.

📊 Why Large Cities Attract Ethnic Minorities

Historical migration routes: Post‑WWII labor migration (e.g., Turkish workers to 

Germany, North Africans to France, South Asians to the UK) was directed toward 

industrial and urban centers.

Economic opportunities: Cities offer more jobs, especially in services, construction, 

transport, and healthcare.

Community networks: New arrivals often settle where existing diaspora communities 

already live, creating cultural hubs.

Accessibility: Large cities are transport hubs, making them easier entry points for migrants.

Education & services: Universities, hospitals, and social services are concentrated in 

metropolitan areas, attracting families.

📍 Examples

London: ~40% of residents are from minority ethnic backgrounds, compared to ~15% 

nationally.

Paris (Île‑de‑France): North African and Sub‑Saharan communities are heavily concentrated 

in suburbs like Seine‑Saint‑Denis, while rural France remains overwhelmingly native‑born.

Berlin: Turkish and Arab communities are prominent in districts like Neukölln and 

Kreuzberg, while eastern rural Germany has very low minority presence.

Amsterdam & Rotterdam: Large Surinamese, Antillean, and Moroccan populations, far 

higher than the Dutch national average.

🔎 Broader Implications

Cultural vibrancy: These cities become centers of multicultural life—food, music, festivals, 

and politics.

Social tensions: Concentration can also fuel debates about integration, housing, and inequality.

Political impact: Urban areas often vote differently than rural ones, partly reflecting 

their diverse populations.

✅ In short: Ethnic minorities in Europe are far more visible in big cities than in rural areas, 

due to migration history, economic opportunities, and community networks.

Louise, since you enjoy comparative modeling, would you like me to build a layered 

map or table showing minority population shares in Europe’s largest cities vs their 

national averages? It would make the contrast very clear.

What are the dominant ethnic minorities in Montreal, Toronto and Vanvouver?

In Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver, the dominant ethnic minority groups differ, reflecting 

each city’s unique immigration history and cultural networks.

📊 Montreal (Québec)

Visible minorities: ~31% of the population

Dominant groups:

Black (Caribbean & African origin) – Montreal has one of the largest Black communities in 

Canada.

Arab/North African (Algerian, Moroccan, Tunisian) – Strong presence due to 

Francophone migration links.

Latin American – Growing community, especially in central boroughs.

South Asian & Chinese – Smaller but significant populations.

Context: Montreal’s diversity is shaped by French-language immigration policies, so 

Francophone countries (North Africa, Haiti) are especially represented.

📊 Toronto (Ontario)

Visible minorities: ~57% of the population

Dominant groups:

South Asian (Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Sri Lankan) – The largest minority group.

Chinese – Long-established, with multiple Chinatowns.

Black (Caribbean & African origin) – Prominent in neighborhoods like Scarborough and 

Etobicoke.

Filipino – Rapidly growing community.

Arab & West Asian – Smaller but notable presence.

Context: Toronto is Canada’s most multicultural city, with nearly half of residents 

foreign-born. Ethnic enclaves (Little India, Greektown, Little Jamaica, Koreatown) 

highlight its diversity.

📊 Vancouver (British Columbia)

Visible minorities: ~54% of Metro Vancouver residents

Dominant groups:

Chinese – The largest minority, with deep historical roots.

South Asian (Punjabi, Indian) – Concentrated in Surrey and Richmond.

Filipino – Growing rapidly in recent decades.

Indigenous peoples – ~6% of BC’s population, with strong cultural presence.

Korean & Japanese – Smaller but visible communities.

Context: Vancouver’s Pacific Rim location makes it a hub for Asian immigration, 

shaping its cultural and economic identity.

                                                                                

✅ In summary:

Montreal → Black and Arab/North African communities dominate.

Toronto → South Asian and Chinese are the largest groups.

Vancouver → Chinese and South Asian are the most prominent.

Louise, since you enjoy layered comparisons, would you like me to build a timeline 

chart showing how these minority shares have grown from 1981 to 2021? It would 

highlight the different immigration waves shaping each city.

So what is the ethnic make-up of London?

London’s ethnic make‑up (2021 Census): About 54% White, 21% Asian, 14% Black, 

6% Mixed, and 6% Other.

📊 Detailed Breakdown (Greater London, 2021 Census)

Total population: ~8.9 million

White: 4.73 million (53.7%)

White British: ~36%

Other White (Irish, European, etc.): ~18%

Asian: 1.82 million (20.7%)

Indian: ~7%

Pakistani: ~3%

Bangladeshi: ~3%

Chinese: ~2%

Other Asian: ~6%

Black: 1.19 million (13.5%)

African: ~7%

Caribbean: ~4%

Other Black: ~2%

Mixed/Multiple ethnicities: 0.51 million (5.8%)

Other ethnic group: 0.56 million (6.3%)

🔎 Key Insights

London is the most ethnically diverse region in England and Wales.

The White British share has declined from ~42% in 2011 to ~36% in 2021.

Asian groups have grown, especially Indian and Bangladeshi communities.

The Black population remains stable at ~14%, but with growth in African 

groups and decline in Caribbean share.

Mixed and Other categories are rising, reflecting newer migration patterns and 

inter‑ethnic families.

🌍 Comparative Context

Nationally (England & Wales), 81.7% identify as White, compared to only 53.7% in London.

London has the highest proportion of ethnic minorities in the UK, with boroughs like 

Newham, Brent, and Tower Hamlets showing majority‑minority populations.

Over 300 languages are spoken in London, and ~41% of residents were born outside 

the UK.

✅ In summary: London’s population is majority‑minority, with White British now 

a minority at ~36%, and large Asian (21%) and Black (14%) communities making 

it one of the most multicultural cities in the world.

Louise, since you enjoy comparative modeling, would you like me to build a 

side‑by‑side table comparing London’s ethnic composition with Toronto and 

Vancouver? It would highlight how Canada’s big cities stack up against 

London’s diversity.

What about Brussels?

Brussels is one of Europe’s most diverse capitals: only about 25–30% of residents 

are of Belgian origin, while the majority are foreign-born or of immigrant 

descent, with large Moroccan, Turkish, and Sub-Saharan African communities.

📊 Ethnic Composition of Brussels (2025 estimates)

Total population: ~2.14 million in the wider urban agglomeration.

Belgian nationals: Roughly 25–30% of residents are native Belgians.

Foreign-born / immigrant origin: ~70–75% of the population.

Moroccan origin: The largest single minority group, estimated at 200,000–300,000 people.

Turkish origin: Significant community, especially in communes like Schaerbeek 

and Saint-Josse.

Sub-Saharan African origin: Congolese, Rwandan, and Burundian communities 

are prominent, reflecting Belgium’s colonial history.

EU migrants: Large numbers of French, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, and Eastern 

Europeans, many working in EU institutions.

Other groups: Increasing presence of Middle Eastern and Asian migrants.

🔎 Key Insights

Youth demographics: Only ~12% of people under 18 in Brussels are of Belgian origin, 

showing how strongly immigrant families shape the city’s future.

Multilingualism: French dominates, but Arabic, Turkish, Lingala, Portuguese, and 

English are widely spoken alongside Dutch.

Religious diversity: Islam is the second-largest religion after Catholicism, with 

Muslims making up ~20–25% of Brussels’ population.

Urban concentration: Minority communities are especially concentrated in 

communes like Molenbeek, Schaerbeek, Anderlecht, and Saint-Josse.

🌍 Comparative Context

Brussels is more immigrant-heavy than Paris or London, where native-born populations 

are still the majority.

Its role as the EU capital attracts thousands of expatriates, making it not only ethnically 

diverse but also highly international.

The city’s diversity is both a cultural strength and a political challenge, with debates 

around integration, housing, and social cohesion.

✅ In summary: Brussels is majority-minority, with Moroccan, Turkish, 

Sub-Saharan African, and EU expatriate communities dominating the city’s 

demographic landscape. Native Belgians are now a minority, especially among 

younger generations.

Louise, since you enjoy comparative modeling, would you like me to build a 

side‑by‑side table comparing Brussels, Paris, and London’s minority shares? 

It would highlight how Brussels is uniquely international compared to its peers.

What are African cities like; are there many Europeans?

African cities are overwhelmingly African in population, with Europeans forming only 

small expatriate or business communities. The continent’s urban centers are growing 

rapidly, but they are not “Europeanized” in demographic terms.

📊 Urban Growth in Africa

Fastest urbanizing continent: Africa’s urban population is projected to double from

 ~700 million today to 1.4 billion by 2050.

Megacities: Cairo (~23 million), Kinshasa (~18 million), Lagos (~17 million), 

Luanda (~10 million), and Dar es Salaam (~8.5 million) are among the largest.

Urban challenges: Infrastructure, housing, transport, and governance are under 

pressure due to rapid growth.

🌍 Ethnic Composition

Predominantly African: The vast majority of residents are local populations—

Black Africans, Arabs, Berbers, and other indigenous groups depending on the region.

European presence:

Concentrated in South Africa (Johannesburg, Cape Town), where whites of European 

descent make up ~7% nationally.

Smaller expatriate communities exist in North African cities (Casablanca, Tunis, 

Cairo) and in capitals with international institutions (Addis Ababa, Nairobi, Dakar).

In most Sub-Saharan cities (Kinshasa, Lagos, Dar es Salaam), Europeans are a tiny 

fraction, often limited to diplomats, aid workers, or business executives.

Colonial legacy: Some cities retain European architectural and cultural influences 

(e.g., French in Dakar, Portuguese in Luanda, British in Nairobi), but demographically 

they are overwhelmingly African.

🔎 Examples

Johannesburg & Cape Town (South Africa): The largest European-descended 

populations in Africa, though still a minority.

Casablanca & Rabat (Morocco): Small French and Spanish expatriate communities, 

but Arabs and Berbers dominate.

Nairobi (Kenya): International hub with UN offices, so expatriates are visible, 

but still a small minority.

Kinshasa (DR Congo): Nearly 18 million residents, overwhelmingly Congolese, 

with Europeans limited to diplomatic/business enclaves.

⚖️ Key Takeaway

African cities are not like European cities demographically. They are majority African, 

with Europeans present mainly as expatriates, tourists, or in South Africa’s

 settler-descended population. The defining feature of African cities today is 

rapid urban growth and diversity within African populations themselves, not 

large-scale European communities.

✅ In summary: African cities are booming, diverse, and overwhelmingly 

African in population. Europeans are present mainly in South Africa and as small 

expatriate enclaves elsewhere, but they do not form a significant demographic share.

Louise, since you enjoy comparative modeling, would you like me to build a table 

contrasting African megacities (like Lagos, Kinshasa, Cairo) with European capitals 

(like Paris, London, Brussels) in terms of population size and minority composition? 

It would highlight how Africa’s urban growth is unique.

So it is inverse colonialism from a demographic standpoint?

That’s a sharp way of framing it, Louise. Let’s unpack the idea carefully.

⚖️ Colonialism vs. Today’s Demographic Shifts

Colonial era (19th–20th centuries):

European powers settled in Africa, Asia, and the Americas.

In some places (South Africa, Algeria, Kenya), Europeans formed sizable settler 

populations.

Colonies were governed by small European minorities ruling over large local 

majorities.

Post‑colonial era (late 20th–21st centuries):

Migration flows reversed: people from former colonies moved to Europe’s metropoles 

(London, Paris, Brussels).

Today, ethnic minorities from Africa, Asia, and the Caribbean are concentrated 

in Europe’s largest cities, sometimes forming 40–60% of the urban population.

Meanwhile, in African and Asian cities, Europeans are now tiny expatriate enclaves.

🔎 Why It Looks Like “Inverse Colonialism”

Demographic presence: Instead of Europeans dominating African cities, Africans and 

Asians are now highly visible in European capitals.

Cultural influence: Diaspora communities shape food, music, politics, 

and urban identity in Europe, much as Europeans once imposed their culture abroad.

Power asymmetry: The difference is that minorities in Europe don’t hold colonial 

power—they are citizens, migrants, or refugees within democratic states.

🌍 Key Distinction

Calling it inverse colonialism is metaphorical rather than literal:

Colonialism was about conquest, domination, and resource extraction.

Today’s migration is about labor demand, globalization, and post‑colonial ties.

Demographically, yes—Europe’s capitals now host large populations from former 

colonies, flipping the visibility pattern. But politically and economically, it’s not 

colonialism in reverse, because minorities don’t exercise imperial control.

✅ In summary: From a demographic standpoint, Europe’s big cities do show a 

kind of mirror image of colonialism—large African and Asian communities in 

European metropoles, while Europeans are now marginal in African cities. But 

it’s not true “colonialism” in reverse, since the power dynamics are fundamentally 

different.

Would you like me to build a comparative chart showing colonial‑era European 

settler shares in African cities vs. today’s minority shares in European capitals? 

That would make the “inverse” pattern visually clear.