Copilot:
Climat change; in what sense has dispersing CO2in the atmosphere 'locked' us in? What is the nature of the lock or locks?
The idea that adding CO₂ to the atmosphere has “locked us in” refers to several overlapping physical, chemical, and socio‑economic mechanisms. They’re different kinds of locks—some rooted in physics, some in ecology, some in infrastructure—and together they explain why climate change is not something we can simply “reverse” on demand.
1. The Physical Carbon Lock: CO₂ Stays for Centuries to Millennia
Once CO₂ is emitted, it doesn’t just vanish.
A large fraction is absorbed by the ocean and biosphere within decades.
But 20–40% of each pulse of CO₂ remains in the atmosphere for thousands of years.
There is no natural fast mechanism that pulls CO₂ back down at the rate we emit it.
This means:
Even if emissions stopped tomorrow, temperatures would remain elevated.
The climate system would not return to pre‑industrial conditions on any human timescale.
This is the most literal “lock”: CO₂ is chemically persistent, and the Earth has no quick drain.
2. The Thermal Inertia Lock: The Ocean Delays and Then Sustains Warming
The oceans absorb most of the excess heat.
They warm slowly because of their enormous heat capacity.
But once warmed, they release that heat slowly, keeping the planet warm for centuries.
This creates a thermal lock:
Even if atmospheric CO₂ stabilized, the oceans would continue warming the atmosphere.
Sea‑level rise from thermal expansion continues long after emissions stop.
3. The Feedback Lock: Warming Triggers Processes That Reinforce Warming
Some feedbacks amplify the initial CO₂‑driven warming:
Melting ice reduces reflectivity (albedo), causing more absorption of sunlight.
Thawing permafrost releases CO₂ and methane.
Warmer oceans absorb less CO₂.
These feedbacks don’t run away into catastrophe, but they make the system harder to cool. They’re like wedges that keep the door from closing.
4. The Ecological Lock: Systems Shift and Don’t Easily Shift Back
Ecosystems reorganize under new climate conditions:
Forests migrate or burn.
Coral reefs bleach and die.
Species ranges shift poleward or uphill.
Once these changes occur, restoring the previous state is not feasible. The biosphere adapts to the new climate, not the old one.
5. The Infrastructure Lock: Our Societies Are Built Around Fossil Energy
This is a human‑made lock:
Cities, transport networks, agriculture, and industry were built assuming cheap fossil fuels.
Energy systems, supply chains, and political structures reinforce continued use.
This is often called carbon lock‑in in the policy literature:
Even when alternatives exist, the sunk costs and institutional inertia slow the transition.
6. The Commitment Lock: We Are Committed to Future Warming Already
Even if emissions stopped today:
The planet would still warm a bit more due to past emissions (the “committed warming”).
Sea levels would continue rising for centuries.
Some regional climate shifts are now unavoidable.
This is not doom—it’s physics. The system responds slowly, and we’ve already nudged it.
So what exactly is “locked”?
You can think of it as a set of nested locks:
The important nuance
Being “locked in” does not mean “helpless.”
It means:
Some warming is unavoidable.
Some impacts are irreversible.
But the magnitude of future change is still entirely in our hands.
Every tonne of CO₂ avoided reduces long-term warming.
Every fraction of a degree avoided prevents irreversible damage.
If you want, we can dig into:
which locks are strongest,
which can be broken,
what realistic pathways exist for mitigation or adaptation,
or how these locks play out specifically in Quebec’s climate trajectory.
You tend to enjoy mapping systems, so we can also build a layered model of the lock‑in dynamics if you want to push deeper.
Tell me again how CO2 behaves. How does it stop heat from escaping the planet? How does it even get absorbed by oceans?
Let’s rebuild the picture from first principles, because the physics is beautifully simple once you see the pieces click together. CO₂ isn’t magic, and it isn’t a “blanket” in the everyday sense. It’s a molecule with very specific vibrational modes that interact with infrared radiation in a way that reshapes how Earth sheds heat to space.
1. How CO₂ actually traps heat
Earth warms the Sun’s shortwave energy and cools itself by emitting longwave infrared radiation back to space. CO₂ interferes with that second step.
The key: CO₂ absorbs infrared at specific wavelengths
CO₂ has vibrational modes—ways the molecule can flex or bend—that resonate with infrared photons around 15 micrometres. When an IR photon at that wavelength tries to escape upward:
CO₂ absorbs it.
The molecule vibrates.
It re‑emits the energy in a random direction.
Half the time, that re‑emission is downward, back toward the surface or lower atmosphere.
This doesn’t “trap” heat permanently. It slows the rate at which heat escapes to space. The planet must then warm until outgoing radiation once again balances incoming sunlight.
Why adding more CO₂ still matters even though absorption bands are “saturated”
A classic misconception is that CO₂’s absorption band is already full, so more CO₂ shouldn’t matter. But:
The center of the band is saturated.
The wings of the band are not.
Adding more CO₂ broadens the wings, raising the altitude at which IR escapes to space.
Higher altitude = colder air = less radiation emitted = warming below.
This is the core greenhouse mechanism.
2. How CO₂ gets absorbed by the oceans
The ocean doesn’t “suck in” CO₂ like a vacuum. It’s chemistry and physics working together.
Step 1: CO₂ dissolves into the surface water
At the air–sea interface, CO₂ molecules collide with the water surface. Some dissolve. Some escape back into the air. The balance depends on:
CO₂ concentration in the air
Temperature of the water
Wind and mixing
Cold water absorbs more CO₂; warm water absorbs less.
Step 2: Once dissolved, CO₂ reacts with water
This is the crucial part. Dissolved CO₂ doesn’t just sit there.
It reacts:
Most of it becomes bicarbonate (HCO₃⁻), which is stable and stays in solution.
This chemical transformation is why the ocean can hold far more carbon than the atmosphere.
Step 3: Mixing carries carbon into the deep ocean
Surface waters exchange CO₂ quickly (years to decades).
Deep ocean circulation stores carbon for centuries to millennia.
This is why the ocean is Earth’s largest active carbon reservoir.
3. Why this creates a “lock-in”
You asked earlier about the nature of the lock. Now you can see the mechanism:
CO₂ persists in the atmosphere for centuries because the ocean–biosphere–atmosphere system only slowly redistributes it.
The ocean absorbs CO₂, but warming reduces its ability to do so.
The radiative effect of CO₂ is immediate and cumulative.
Even if emissions stopped, the elevated CO₂ would continue altering Earth’s energy balance for a very long time.
The lock is physical and chemical, not political or moral.
4. If you want, we can go deeper
We can explore:
Why methane behaves differently
Why water vapor amplifies CO₂’s effect but doesn’t drive it
How radiative transfer is calculated in climate models
Why the ocean’s carbon chemistry is nonlinear
How Quebec’s regional climate responds to these global mechanisms
Just tell me which direction you want to push next.
So what happens to accumulated bicarbonate?
Bicarbonate is where most of the carbon we emit ultimately ends up, but it doesn’t just sit there inertly forever. It moves through a slow, layered set of oceanic and geological processes. Once you see the full chain, you understand why the ocean is both a buffer and a bottleneck.
1. In the short term (years to centuries): bicarbonate just stays dissolved
When CO₂ dissolves into seawater and becomes bicarbonate (HCO₃⁻), it joins the ocean’s enormous dissolved inorganic carbon pool.
About 90% of ocean carbon is in the form of bicarbonate.
It’s stable, so it doesn’t spontaneously revert to CO₂.
It circulates with ocean currents, mixing downward into deeper layers.
This is why the ocean can absorb so much carbon without immediately re‑releasing it.
But this is not permanent storage. It’s slow storage.
2. Over centuries to millennia: bicarbonate participates in the carbonate–silicate cycle
This is where the real long-term lock happens.
A. Bicarbonate + calcium → calcium carbonate (CaCO₃)
Marine organisms—corals, shellfish, plankton—use bicarbonate and calcium to build shells and skeletons.
Some of this CaCO₃:
sinks as dead shells,
accumulates on the seafloor,
becomes sediment.
This is the beginning of geological sequestration.
B. Sediments eventually become rock
Over thousands to millions of years:
carbonate sediments are buried,
compressed,
and turned into limestone.
This is the only truly permanent carbon sink on Earth.
C. Weathering on land feeds the cycle
Rainwater dissolves CO₂ into carbonic acid, which weathers rocks. Weathering releases ions that flow to the ocean and help form more carbonate minerals.
This is the slow thermostat of the planet.
3. Over very long timescales: subduction and volcanism
Some carbonate rocks are subducted into the mantle. A tiny fraction of that carbon returns to the atmosphere through volcanic outgassing.
This is the deep carbon cycle—millions of years long.
4. The important catch: acidification slows the biological pathway
As the ocean absorbs more CO₂:
pH drops,
carbonate ion concentration falls,
organisms have a harder time forming shells.
This means the biological pump weakens, slowing the conversion of bicarbonate into solid carbonate minerals.
So the very process that stores carbon long-term is being impaired by the rate at which we’re adding CO₂.
The key insight:
The ocean can store carbon, but not fast enough to counteract the speed of human emissions.
If you want, we can explore:
why the ocean’s buffering capacity weakens as it warms,
how much more carbon the ocean can realistically absorb,
or how this chemistry plays out in the North Atlantic specifically (which matters for Quebec’s climate trajectory).
Let's look at the climate aspect. More heat means stronger winds, and more powerful storms??
The intuition that “more heat = stronger winds = more powerful storms” is partly right, but the real climate mechanics are more interesting and more nuanced. Heat doesn’t just make things hotter—it changes the energy gradients, moisture availability, and stability of the atmosphere. Storms are engines, and warming changes how those engines run.
Let’s break it down cleanly.
🌡️ 1. Heat is energy — but storms depend on differences in energy
A storm is not powered by absolute temperature.
It’s powered by contrasts:
warm vs. cold air
moist vs. dry air
high vs. low pressure
Warming the planet changes these contrasts in uneven ways.
What increases with warming
More water vapor in the air
More latent heat (the fuel for storms)
More evaporation
More intense rainfall potential
What decreases with warming
The equator‑to‑pole temperature gradient in the lower atmosphere
(because the Arctic warms faster)
This is why some storms get stronger, while some wind patterns weaken.
🌪️ 2. Hurricanes and tropical storms: warming supercharges them
Tropical cyclones feed on:
warm ocean water
humid air
latent heat release
As oceans warm:
Maximum potential intensity increases
Rainfall rates increase dramatically
Rapid intensification becomes more common
Storms hold their strength longer after landfall
But warming does not necessarily increase the number of hurricanes.
It increases the fraction of the strongest ones.
Think: fewer storms overall, but more monsters.
🌧️ 3. Mid‑latitude storms (like those affecting Quebec): the story is different
These storms depend on the temperature contrast between the poles and the mid‑latitudes.
Arctic amplification (the Arctic warming 3–4× faster) weakens that contrast.
This leads to:
A slower, wobblier jet stream
More blocking patterns
More stalled weather systems
More extremes (heat domes, atmospheric rivers, long cold spells)
But not necessarily stronger winds in the classic sense.
The storms become more erratic, not uniformly more powerful.
⚡ 4. Thunderstorms and tornadoes: more fuel, but more complicated dynamics
Warmer air holds more moisture, which increases CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy).
More CAPE = stronger updrafts.
But tornado formation also requires wind shear, which may decrease in some regions.
So:
More intense rainfall
More extreme thunderstorms
Shifts in tornado geography
Not a simple “more tornadoes everywhere” pattern
🌊 5. Atmospheric rivers: supercharged by warming
These long plumes of moisture (especially in the Pacific and Atlantic) intensify because:
Warmer oceans evaporate more water
Warmer air holds more water
This leads to:
Heavier downpours
More flooding
More snow‑to‑rain transitions
Quebec and the Northeast are already seeing this.
🌍 6. So does more heat mean stronger winds?
Sometimes, but not universally.
Where winds get stronger
In tropical cyclones
In some extreme thunderstorms
In high‑altitude jet streaks during certain seasons
In localized downbursts and derechos
Where winds weaken
In the mid‑latitude jet stream (annual average)
In large‑scale storm tracks that depend on polar–equator contrast
Where winds get weirder
Everywhere
Climate change increases variability, not just intensity.
🧩 7. The big picture
Warming doesn’t simply “turn up the volume” on storms.
It rearranges the entire orchestra:
More moisture
More latent heat
More stalled systems
More extremes
More rapid intensification
More rainfall
More flooding
More erratic wind patterns
The climate becomes less stable, less predictable, and more energetic, but not uniformly “windier.”
If you want, we can zoom in on:
how this plays out specifically in Quebec and the St‑Jean‑sur‑Richelieu region
why winter storms in the Northeast are intensifying
how Arctic warming reshapes the jet stream
or how storm energetics relate to ocean heat content
You tend to enjoy the deeper mechanics, so we can go as far into the physics as you like.
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