https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2020/04/15/en-californie-la-distanciation-sociale-a-fait-la-difference-face-au-coronavirus
source: Agence France Presse
Wednesday, April 15, 2020 00:55 in le Journal de Montreal
translation: GoogleTranslate/doxa-louise
Social distancing in California tipped the scales against the coronavirus
California, the most populous state in the United States, was also the first in the country to impose strict containment measures, a successful strategy to limit the spread of the coronavirus and prevent overcrowding in hospitals and the resulting mass deaths.
"If we look at the data, it is clear that rapid measurements make the difference in flattening the curve " of hospitalizations linked to COVID-19, explains to AFP Professor Anne Rimoin, epidemiologist and public health specialist at the university UCLA in Los Angeles.
"California has really been at the forefront of regulations to keep people at home, promote social distancing, cancel concerts and large gatherings, and even encourage people to cover their faces. All of this put together, it makes quite a difference, ”adds Ms. Rimoin.
It was in California that at the end of February the very first American cases of "community transmission" were reported, that is to say locally among the population, and not via people who had traveled in areas then infected outside the country.
Governor Gavin Newsom imposed confinement on 40 million Californians as of March 19, when the state only officially registered a large thousand cases and 19 deaths. But millions of people in the San Francisco area, the worst hit by the Covid-19 at the time, had already been ordered to stay at home three days earlier.
On that same day, New York had already seen more than 5,000 cases. Local authorities waited until the next day to take measures to limit movement of the population.
While the pandemic exploded in New York, with more than 10,000 deaths and emergency services and morgues overwhelmed, the situation remained contained in California: 758 deaths for just over 23,000 cases identified.
Even if the density of population and the extreme urbanization of New York can partly explain this alarming result, for Anne Rimoin the rapid reaction of the Californian authorities was indeed the determining factor.
"Once the virus begins to spread, it spreads exponentially, so acting quickly to keep people from crowds is the best thing to do," said the Ebola specialist.
75% and five months
The researcher and her team have developed a mathematical model to measure the effectiveness of confinement in relation to COVID-19 cases.
"One thing the model shows is that the speed with which the measures are implemented is more important than their intensity," she told AFP.
It turns out that Californians also seem to have respected the instructions limiting travel to "essential activities" and the rules of social distancing. According to Erin Mordecai's calculations, they have on average reduced their social interactions by 75% for almost a month.
How long should it last? Patience: in Santa Clara County, which is home to Silicon Valley, containment should remain in place "at least five months for the epidemic to stop completely," said Mordecai. "And again, we would remain vulnerable" if a new patient arrived, she said.
For experts as for Governor Newsom, who outlined the conditions for a return to normal on Tuesday, social distancing can only be eased once we have the means to test all people with symptoms of COVID- 19, in order to be able to isolate them.
"Otherwise, we will lose all the enormous progress we have made so far, at the cost of enormous sacrifices," warns Professor Rimoin.
"If we just reopen everything, the virus will still be there and we will find ourselves at the starting point," adds the epidemiologist, who insists on putting "public health before the economy".
"And everywhere in the world, it should be prohibited to leave your home without covering your face!", she urges.
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An interesting development on the shopping front:
St-Jean-sur-Richelieu now has a Buylocal platform,
with a number of businesses listed. Could I perhaps
order a pair of runners and have them delivered 'in real
time' like pizza!?
http://commandezlocal.ca/
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Working from home takes it, in Germany
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