Clarifications

source: le Monde, January 12, 2020

author: Gilles Paris

translation: GoogleTranslate/doxa-louise

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Pascal: In connection with a previous answer: how to explain that there are not more elected Republican in favor of impeachment? Under the current circumstances, isn't this the perfect opportunity for them to prevent Donald Trump's candidacy in 2024 and to get rid of a personality that is toxic to the GOP [Grand Old Party] for good?

Two days after the assault on Congress, the leadership of the Republican Party met in Florida to learn from the electoral cycle which has just ended. Despite the loss of the White House and the Senate, after that of the House of Representatives in 2018, its leader, Ronna McDaniel, chosen by Donald Trump in 2017, was unanimously re-elected and no criticism was leveled against the outgoing president.

The fact that the Republican base, which counts in the primaries, remains faithful to the president constitutes a lock that no dissenter has been able to blow. For four years, the choice was simple: align with Donald Trump or quit politics, with very rare exceptions. This exceptional influence on a hussar bias in 2016 will not disappear instantly. It suffices to consider the journey of an elected official like Lindsey Graham, senator from South Carolina, passed successively from warning against the danger constituted by Donald Trump to resignation, then to active and enthusiastic collaboration, and today to regret.

Matthieu: Isn't the Democrats' agenda to complete the GOP divide and thus ensure a few years of electoral success?

The Republican Party has been divided for decades between a moderate wing, embodied by patrician figures such as George HW Bush or Mitt Romney, and an insurrectionary wing, that of Newt Gingrich and today of the Freedom Caucus (which brings together elected officials from the Tea Party converted to Trumpism). This internal tension is completely indifferent to the Democratic agenda.

It should also be noted that this divide did not prevent electoral success. The Tea Party war against the Republican caciques deemed too complacent with Democrat Barack Obama did not prevent the conquest of the House in 2010 or that of the Senate in 2014. The record number of votes obtained by Donald Trump in the presidential election November 3, 2020, even if he finally lost, risks weighing on the autopsy of the defeat; it will undoubtedly prevent a repudiation of Trumpism, and thus prolong the inconvenient cohabitation between these two factions.

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2024? : In the event that Trump is impeached, could he stand for re-election in 2024?

It should be noted that a condemnation by the Senate is not automatically followed by a ban on holding public office or running for elected office. In 2019, at the start of the first impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump, experts, such as Edward Foley who teaches at Ohio State University, had considered a conviction that would not be accompanied by a ban. to represent himself, to spare the procedure of accusations of being used for political maneuvering.

The Senate votes on the legal consequences of a conviction once it has been established. Unlike this first step, a simple majority suffices, even if the Constitution is not very clear on this point.