Friday, January 3, 2025

At sea

 Who said retirement had to be dull:


                                                 *     *     *

The Canadian Dollar seems to in free-fall, at .6924 USD this morning.

Even more alarming, there doesn't seem to be any rebound in sight in the 

near future. To the point where this is being noticed internationally, with The

Economist telling us - jokingly - to join the US. What is going on here!?


Asked Google's new AI about it:
                                                                
Why is Canada's Economy falling behind America's?

AI Overview
Canada's economy has been falling behind the United States' for a number of reasons, including:

Productivity
Canada's productivity growth has been sluggish for two decades, and the country has missed out on the tech boom that has driven US growth. 

Immigration
Canada has welcomed record numbers of newcomers, but many are low-skilled workers and students who are more likely to be unemployed or in low-earning jobs. 

Oil production
Canada's oil production growth has lagged behind the US due to underinvestment following the 2014 oil price collapse. 

Public sector output
GDP doesn't properly value public-sector output, which is more difficult to quantify than private sector outputs. 

Household debt
Canadians are the most indebted in the G7, spending 15% of their income on debt repayment. 

Housing affordability
Housing affordability has been deteriorating. 

Exposure to the US economy
Canada is highly exposed to the US economy and fluctuations in energy prices. 

                                                     *     *     *

Had a chat with COPILOT:

Foreign Exchange; one sees an evolving quote of the value of the Canadian dollar against other currencies all day. By whom and how are these numbers arrived at?

The value of the Canadian dollar against other currencies is determined by the foreign exchange market. This market operates 24/7, with participants including banks, financial institutions, corporations, governments, and individual traders. The exchange rates fluctuate based on supply and demand dynamics for the Canadian dollar.

Several factors influence these fluctuations:

  • Interest Rates: Higher interest rates in Canada can attract foreign investors seeking better returns, increasing demand for the Canadian dollar.

  • Inflation Rates: Lower inflation rates in Canada compared to other countries can make the Canadian dollar more attractive.

  • Economic Indicators: Strong economic performance, such as GDP growth and employment rates, can boost confidence in the Canadian dollar.

  • Commodity Prices: As a major exporter of commodities like oil and minerals, changes in commodity prices can significantly impact the Canadian dollar's value.

  • Market Sentiment: Investor perceptions and geopolitical events can also cause short-term fluctuations in exchange rates.

The Bank of Canada allows the Canadian dollar to float, meaning its value is determined by the market rather than being fixed by the government. This approach helps the economy adjust to external shocks and maintain stability.

If you're curious about the specifics, you can find more detailed information on the .


What currencies have appreciated against the Canadian dollar in the last six months?

Over the past six months, several currencies have appreciated against the Canadian dollar. Notably, the US dollar has seen a significant increase in value compared to the Canadian dollar. The exchange rate has risen from around 1.33 CAD per USD to approximately 1.44 CAD per USD. This trend is largely due to the stronger performance of the US economy and higher interest rates in the US compared to Canada.


Just name 5 other than the US.

Sure thing! Here are five currencies that have appreciated against the Canadian dollar in the last six months:

  1. Euro (EUR)

  2. British Pound (GBP)

  3. Japanese Yen (JPY)

  4. Swiss Franc (CHF)

  5. Australian Dollar (AUD)


Can you tell me by how much, for each?

Sure! Here are the changes in value for each of the five currencies against the Canadian dollar over the last six months:

  1. Euro (EUR): The Euro has appreciated by approximately 0.19%.

  2. British Pound (GBP): The British Pound has appreciated by about 3.71%.

  3. Japanese Yen (JPY): The Japanese Yen has appreciated by around 8.31%.

  4. Swiss Franc (CHF): The Swiss Franc has appreciated by approximately 5.42%.

  5. Australian Dollar (AUD): The Australian Dollar has depreciated by about 2.79%.


Has the Bank of Canada intervened in the last 6 months to support the dollar?

No, the Bank of Canada has not intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the Canadian dollar in the last six months. The last time the Bank of Canada intervened in the foreign exchange market was in September 1998. The Bank of Canada only intervenes in the most exceptional circumstances, such as extreme price volatility or severe lack of liquidity in the Canadian-dollar market.

                                                   *     *     *

No, I am not blaming the Bank of Canada. They have done their job, and brought inflation

down dramatically, more successfully than the US. BUT, for those who travel or buy foreign

goods, like iphones, the situation is dramatic. Dare I say it: the Middle-Class needs help!?

No comments: