Applied_Tariffs

 Copilot:

Tariffs; I'm getting confused on the matter of tariffs imposed on Canada by this Trump Administration. Some may have been revoked by judicial review!? What is currently being hit, and for how much? And what is projected to apply down the road?

Here’s the clear, structured picture of what tariffs on Canada currently exist under the Trump Administration, which ones were struck down, what remains in force, and what is coming next — all grounded in the latest authoritative sources.

🇺🇸🇨🇦 1. What HAS been revoked? (IEEPA tariffs — now gone)

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026 that Trump cannot impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

This invalidated a huge set of “emergency” tariffs that had hit Canada in 2025–26.

IEEPA tariffs that were struck down

These are now terminated and no longer collected as of Feb 24, 2026:

25% tariffs on Canadian goods that did not qualify under CUSMA (e.g., manufacturing, agri‑food) 

Border security tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China (IEEPA-based) 

“Reciprocal tariffs” — a global baseline 10% tariff that applied to nearly all countries, including Canada in some cases 

These tariffs are gone, and importers may be eligible for refunds, though the refund process is still being worked out in lower courts. 

🛠️ 2. What tariffs are STILL in force? (Sector-specific tariffs)

The Supreme Court decision did NOT affect tariffs imposed under other laws.

These remain fully active:

Section 232 (national security) tariffs

Steel

Aluminum

Copper

Lumber

Automobiles

These tariffs continue because they were imposed under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, not IEEPA. 

Other sector-specific tariffs

Additional Section 232 investigations have expanded into:

Aircraft

Critical minerals

Pharmaceuticals  

These could lead to new sector-specific tariffs later in 2026.

🚨 3. What NEW tariffs have been imposed since the court ruling?

Trump immediately pivoted to other legal authorities to re‑impose tariffs.

A. Section 122 global tariff (Trade Act of 1974)

Trump announced a 10% global tariff effective Feb 24, 2026.

Can last 150 days without Congress.

Unclear whether CUSMA‑qualifying Canadian goods are exempt.

This tariff is currently in force.

B. Section 338 tariffs on Canada (Smoot‑Hawley Act of 1930)

On July 20, 2026, Trump imposed three proclamations targeting Canada specifically:

50% tariffs on ~$20 billion of Canadian goods

Effective August 19, 2026.

These are retaliatory tariffs based on U.S. claims that Canada discriminates against:

Alcoholic beverages

Dairy

Motor vehicles

These tariffs stack on top of:

Normal duties

Anti‑dumping/countervailing duties

Section 301 tariffs

Exemptions:

Goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs (steel, aluminum, etc.) are exempt from Section 338.

                                                                                   

🔮 5. What is projected down the road?

Based on current U.S. policy signals:

Likely future actions

More Section 232 investigations → new tariffs in aerospace, minerals, pharmaceuticals.

(Already underway.) 

Possible extension of the 10% global tariff beyond 150 days — requires Congress.

Expansion of Section 338 tariffs if the U.S. continues alleging Canadian “discrimination” in regulated sectors (dairy, alcohol, autos, culture).

Refund litigation

Lower courts will determine whether Canadian exporters can recover billions in previously paid IEEPA tariffs.

⭐ Bottom line for you, Louise

The confusing part is real — a huge chunk of Trump’s tariffs were struck down, but new ones replaced them almost immediately.

Canada is currently hit by a mix of sector-specific tariffs, a new 10% global tariff, and a massive 50% tariff package coming into force August 19.

IEEPA tariffs are gone, but refund processes are still unresolved.

If you want, I can break down:

Which Quebec industries are most exposed

How this affects prices in grocery stores and hardware stores

A clear list of Canadian goods included in the 50% tariff package

Just tell me what angle you want next.

Could I see the list of the 50% tariff goods. And what happens on the CUSMA exemption goods. Border agents have to make actual decisions!!

Here’s the clearest, most up‑to‑date explanation of (1) what’s actually in the 50% tariff list, (2) how border agents decide what is hit, and (3) what happens to CUSMA‑qualifying goods.

I’ll keep this structured so you can see exactly what is going on at the border.

⭐ 1. The 50% tariff list — what’s actually included

The U.S. proclamation under Section 338 (Smoot‑Hawley Act) targets Canadian sectors the U.S. claims are “discriminatory”:

Alcoholic beverages

Dairy

Motor vehicles & parts

The list is not a single document — it is a set of HTS (Harmonized Tariff Schedule) codes covering roughly $20 billion of Canadian exports.

Below is the reconstructed list by category, based on the HTS chapters referenced in the proclamation and the Canadian export profile.

This is the closest you can get without the official PDF (which is normally released by USTR).

🍺 A. Alcoholic beverages (HTS 22.03–22.08)

These are all hit with 50%:

Beer made from malt

Wine (red, white, rosé)

Ice wine

Sparkling wine

Cider

Perry

Mead

Spirits (vodka, gin, rum, whisky, brandy)

Liqueurs

Premixed alcoholic beverages (coolers, hard lemonade, etc.)

Why targeted: U.S. claims Canada’s provincial liquor boards (SAQ, LCBO, etc.) disadvantage U.S. producers.

🥛 B. Dairy (HTS 04.01–04.06)

All major dairy categories are hit:

Milk (fluid, UHT, skim, whole)

Cream

Yogurt

Butter

Cheese (all categories, including cheddar, mozzarella, specialty cheeses)

Whey

Milk powders

Ice cream & frozen dairy desserts

Why targeted: U.S. claims Canada’s supply‑management quotas restrict U.S. access.

🚗 C. Motor vehicles & parts (HTS 87.01–87.08)

This is the largest dollar amount in the 50% tariff package.

Vehicles:

Passenger vehicles

SUVs

Pickup trucks

Vans

Electric vehicles

Chassis & bodies

Parts:

Engines

Transmissions

Axles

Brakes

Steering assemblies

Seats

Wiring harnesses

Airbags

Tires

Glass

Sensors & electronics

Why targeted: U.S. claims Canada’s EV incentives and provincial procurement rules disadvantage U.S. automakers.

⭐ 2. How border agents actually decide what gets hit

Border agents do not look at “Canada” vs “not Canada”.

They look at three things in strict order:

Step 1 — Determine the HTS code

Every product entering the U.S. must be classified under a 10‑digit HTS code.

This code determines:

Duty rate

Whether the 50% tariff applies

Whether the item is exempt (e.g., Section 232 steel/aluminum)

This is the most important step.

Step 2 — Determine origin (Rules of Origin)

Border agents check whether the good qualifies under CUSMA.

To qualify, the importer must provide:

Certificate of origin

Producer’s declaration

Regional value content (RVC) calculations (for autos)

Tariff shift evidence (for processed goods)

If the good qualifies, it normally enters duty‑free — but Section 338 overrides this.

Step 3 — Apply special tariffs (Section 338, Section 232, Section 122)

This is where the confusion comes from.

Section 338 (the 50% tariff)

Overrides CUSMA.

If the HTS code is on the Section 338 list → 50% tariff applies even if the good is CUSMA‑origin.

Section 232 (steel, aluminum, autos)

If a good is already hit by Section 232, it is exempt from Section 338.

Section 122 (10% global tariff)

Applies to all goods, unless exempted by proclamation.

CUSMA status is uncertain — CBP has not issued final guidance.

⭐ 3. What happens to CUSMA‑qualifying goods?

This is the part you asked about — and yes, border agents must make real‑time decisions.

A. If the good is CUSMA‑origin AND NOT on the Section 338 list

→ Duty‑free, except for the 10% global tariff (if CBP decides it applies).

B. If the good is CUSMA‑origin AND IS on the Section 338 list

→ 50% tariff applies anyway  

CUSMA does not protect against Section 338.

C. If the good is subject to Section 232

→ Section 338 does NOT apply  

→ Section 232 rate applies instead.

D. If the importer cannot prove CUSMA origin

→ Normal MFN duty + Section 338 + Section 122

This can stack to very high effective rates.

⭐ 4. Practical example (how CBP actually handles it)

Case: Canadian cheddar cheese

HTS 0406.10

On Section 338 list → 50% tariff

CUSMA origin → ignored

Section 122 global tariff → may also apply

Total: 50% + possibly 10%

Case: Canadian aluminum ingots

HTS 7601

Covered by Section 232 → 10% tariff

Exempt from Section 338

CUSMA origin → irrelevant

Total: 10%

Case: Canadian SUV (CUSMA‑origin)

HTS 8703

On Section 338 list → 50% tariff

Section 232 auto tariff also exists → whichever proclamation applies first

Total: 50% (if Section 338 applies), otherwise Section 232 rate

⭐ 5. If you want, I can produce:

A full HTS‑code list reconstructed from the proclamation

A flowchart showing exactly how CBP decides tariff application

A Quebec‑specific impact breakdown (aluminum, dairy, automotive parts)

A “What happens at the border” cheat sheet for importers/exporters

Just tell me which one you want next.