Election 19

source: Le Journal de Montréal

author: Guillaume St-Pierre

translation: GoogleTranslate/doxa-louise

OPINION

How things stack up in a disjointed Parliament 

The federal election is now behind us. As dust falls quietly, Canadians are waking up today with a minority government,  by nature precarious. All leaders have enormous challenges and pitfalls in front of them. Preview of the coming months.

THE CONSERVATIVE HANGOVER

Conservative leader Andrew Scheer finds in the aftermath of elections more weakened than ever. His leadership is under attack from all sides. Some preach patience, others have already come to the conclusion that Mr. Scheer is not the man for the situation.

Mr. Scheer argues that under his leadership, the Conservative Party has increased its Parliamentary strenght  by about 20 seats, and has obtained more votes than Justin Trudeau in absolute numbers. But getting quasi-Stalinist scores in Alberta is not exactly a sign of good political health. One can even conclude that Mr. Scheer was unable to enlarge his appeal, stubbornly preaching to the converted.

"Andrew Scheer did not take enough risks, for example by proposing a stronger environmental plan," believes Tim Powers, a long-time Conservative strategist.

Conservative activists will decide in the spring if they are to renew their trust in their leader. But, already, names are circulating about a possible replacement.

The alarm is particularly brutal to his Quebec lieutenant Alain Rayes, who has done an admirable job  gathering a group of quite respectable candidates. It is clear that many Quebecers are not in tune with the social conservatism of Mr. Scheer.

THE HARDCORE BLOC

The surprise departure of former Bloc Québécois leader Martine Ouellet reminds us of the existence of very distinct factions within the party.

But above all, it points to, more generally, the tendency of separatists to express their disagreements very publicly.

Yves-François Blanchet, who does present much by way of political experience, much less as a leader, will be responsible for overseeing the 30 Bloc members in Ottawa.

"The challenge is to see how he will bring newly elected people who have never been to Ottawa to work in a coherent, cohesive, team way," said University of Ottawa political scientist Geneviève Tellier.

With 32 MPs, the Bloc attains the status of an officially recognized party in the House of Commons, with associated budgets. By sitting on committees, its elected officials will have the opportunity to add their input to various bills.

It is the quality of this legislative work, accomplished far from the spotlight, that will ultimately be measured, in the end, as to the relevance of the Bloc in Ottawa.

Bloc troops will also need to expressly restock their war chest before the next election.

A RENEWED JUSTIN TRUDEAU?

Should the Liberal leader surround himself with more Quebeckers? Yes, instinctively respond those disappointed by Liberals' performance in the Belle Province. Behind the scenes, it was pointed out that the chief's entourage had been warned of the Bloc Québécois' growth potential.

The alarmists were not listened to by the Prime Minister's Toronto clique.

A long-time Liberal strategist  tempers this assessement. After all, all Quebec LPC ministers were re-elected. And with 35 seats, many  Quebec francophones, the party is well in the saddle. Nothing to do, therefore, with the debacle of the PLQ provincially last year, pushed to its bunker positions in Montreal.

The challenge of the PLC in  Western Canada is more apparent. Justin Trudeau did not elect anyone in Saskatchewan or Alberta. The Prime Minister must find a way to make room for these provinces around him, ideally in his cabinet.

Justin Trudeau is gaving himself a month to build his team of ministers. He needed two weeks in 2015. "It's a sign of maturity," believes our former strategist. It is also undoubtedly a sign that significant changes are coming within his personnal team, believes our liberal.

JAGMEET IN QUICKSAND

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh should not be deluded; although he holds the balance of power, his true influence against the Liberals of Justin Trudeau remains very limited in the short term.

"As long as the party is not ready to return to elections, its power position is very weak," believes a former press secretary of the party, Farouk Karim.

The NDP is penniless. It must resource itself before going back into the electoral arena.
In this context, Jagmeet Singh must work to reduce the expectations of his activists, while demonstrating that he has certain powers of influence over Justin Trudeau.

"The next few months will be more of a war of public opinion than a legislative war in Parliament," Karim said.

In this view, it is prudent to wait until the 2nd Liberal budget in the spring of 2021 to observe the first real clashes between the government and oppositions, which will be better equipped financially to play to their political weight.

NEW BLOOD FOR THE GREENS

Green Party leader Elizabeth May says she is ready to retire. This is probably good news for activists.
The Greens have had a disappointing campaign. The three solitary members they elected will not weigh very much in the balance of this minority government.

"There is really a lot of work to be done on reorganization, leadership and preparation for the next campaign," says Geneviève Tellier of the University of Ottawa.

- With the collaboration of Émilie Bergeron