Global J.

 source: Le nouvel Observateur, Auguast19, 2021

author: Sébastien Boussois (doctor in political science)

translation: GoogleTranslate/doxa-louise

Opinion - Afghanistan, eternal land of renewal for global jihadism

With the return to power of the Taliban, can the country once again become a sanctuary for international terrorism? 

Among the many questions that have arisen since the Taliban took over Afghanistan, whether the country can once again become a sanctuary for international terrorism preoccupies the entire planet. More than the defeat of the West in pacifying this new "Talibanistan", with major responsibility on  corrupt Afghan elites for twenty years mired in a decay of power and weakness in the army, the news goes beyond the simple conjuncture but is fits well in a larger context of a civilizational crisis of  resistance organized to the world order by  marginal groups. Moreover, these fighting marginals, rejecting the dominant West for two thousand years, the most effective  years on year, are indeed Islamists. And Afghanistan has a prominent place in this endless fight and risks remaining so for the long term.

Let us recall that the veterans of Afghanistan of 1979, fighting against the USSR, were at the origin of the birth of a large part of the violent Islamist groups which swarmed from North Africa to the Sahel, from Bosnia to the Middle - East, as far as South-East Asia, and which ended up destabilizing America and then Europe. Their successes are notable from the attacks of September 11, 2001 in New York to the war in Syria and the attacks that struck the Middle East and the heart of the Old Continent. Since the fall of the Islamic State (IS) organization in Syria and Iraq, its veterans have undoubtedly become new models, some of whom will not have failed to redeploy themselves to the original lands of jihad to "recharge their batteries" and relax; "regenerate themselves". Afghanistan is one of these privileged destinations.

Who are the “new” Taliban?

As if the history of the last twenty years had shown that the end of a terrorist movement linked to Islamism left no room for the emergence of any other structure inheriting from the past movement. In Afghanistan, it is the Islamist millefeuille: we find there Al-Qaida of course which financed in its time the Taliban, the Islamic State which saw there a dream prey and has already cut its teeth with the Wilayat Khorasan in 2015 and the Taliban obsessed with the unique reconquest of their country since 2001. It is the outbidding for Islamism of the most "in", who would be the most "successful" in the face of Westerners in rout, in order to present themselves as “liberators” of their own populations in the face of corrupt “failed” states.

Today, it is the Taliban who can savor their success, while trying to present themselves as more acceptable to Westerners than twenty years ago. It is hard to believe it, but can we only imagine that their lightning victory could have been achieved without the clear consent of a good part of the Afghan population, fed up with the corruption and mismanagement of an incapable Afghan state? nGaining othing in two decades, with the Americans, for their security, prosperity and peace?

Afghanistan: "The victory of the Taliban will encourage the jihadists"

A priori, the Taliban project was, is and will be Afghanistan. But it is clear that they will give ideological and religious wings to other groups who also dream of reinstating their "caliphate" from Africa to South-East Asia via the Middle East. The resilient jihadist ideology has always attracted individuals from all over the world, and today's Afghanistan could spark new vocations, amid this ocean of Western hatred that exists in the Arab-Muslim world. This deadly ideology, but which remains a potential project for thousands of individuals faced with the political and economic vacuum and impasse in the Middle East for decades, has always known how to redeploy itself skillfully and violently. And faced with a glorified Afghanistan once again “bankable”, appetites will develop.

Fighting for the status of the country's Islamist leader

Because if they "normalize", if one day that happens, and are accepted by the West (to protect themselves from the worst yet to come), the Taliban will soon appear as the new traitors to the cause (1). A bit like the fighters of the Northern Alliance of 2001 who became traitors by joining part of power and who were never able to stem the return of the Islamists. By making compromises with the free world, they before, like the Taliban tomorrow, will generate new resistance in the country. Starting with their eternal enemy Daesh [Arab acronym for ISIS] , which until now has had limited hold.

This did not prevent the Taliban, in their progress, from having to face a self-proclaimed caliphate in 2015, by a franchise of Daesh, that was the Wilayat Khorasan. With the fall of Raqqa, the Islamic State created and proclaimed in Afghanistan in February 2015 quickly aspired to become the new Islamic caliphate. As early as May 2015, ISIS's black flag flew over Wilayat Khorasan and set up its headquarters in the Mamand Valley, before the first targeted strikes in July 2015 forced it to adopt a more mobile approach (after three chiefs Daesh were killed successively). And the worst thing is that the Afghan people welcomed this new actor positively, because they were convinced that it was serving the interests of the Afghan government, against the local Taliban. But things are changing. The Taliban entered a phase of confrontation with ISIS's Wilayat Khorasan. The latter had the upper hand, and as of June 2015, it controlled eight of the nine districts of Nangarhar province, which was its peak of power before collapsing. But it should be remembered that this was the first time that a terrorist organization from outside did not pledge allegiance to the historic Mullah Omar, head of the Taliban.[whose death in 2013 was announced in 2015] . And at the same time, the “caliph” Baghdadi had promised him to punish the Afghan “students” who had chosen not to join Daesh.

Afghanistan: Joe Biden pays the bill for twenty years of mistakes and lies

In the months to come, the war is likely to be more open than ever between the two protagonists who will continue to dispute the status of Islamist leader of the country. This is where the additional arrival of new "Daechists" from everywhere can weigh in the balance. Already within the country, there is no shortage of recruits. Indeed, Afghanistan has known for decades an influential extremist current, which is found in all strata of society, especially among many young people who have absorbed the jihadist ideology and will adhere to the new version of jihadism, the most violent. .

Especially if the Taliban are pushed too quickly to "normalize"! We understood that in Afghanistan, it was not the number of combatants that counted in winning. The far fewer Taliban have defeated an inert Afghan army. For the moment, the supporters of Daesh number a few thousand, but may well see their ranks swell in the months to come. We would then be heading towards a conflict which promises thousands of deaths and a total concentration of regional forces which risks destabilizing the entire region even more. And Afghanistan will become this new worldwide sanctuary of death. Will we one day come to have to help “normalized” Taliban to overcome an unconventional jihadist hydra even more nihilistic than them? History has shown that our support and our alliances have always been very pragmatic at the end of the day.

(1) Without counting all the conspirators, numerous in these currents, who already finally see Washington's hand in the takeover of the country, under agreement, by the Taliban.

Sébastien Boussois has a doctorate in political science, Middle East researcher on Euro-Arab relations / terrorism and radicalization, teacher in international relations, scientific collaborator of CECID (Université Libre de Bruxelles), OMAN (UQAM Montreal and SAVE BELGIUM (Society Against Violent Extremism).