So, what kind of magic is this!? What Bayes' Theorem is addressing is
conditional probability. Math is Fun gives us a clear view of what this concept
refers to: the probability of an occurence, given a previous one...
The two draw events are independent, but the conditions have changed:
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How Bayes' T can be derived:
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Interestingly, Thomas Bayes(1702 - 1761) was a compatriot of David Hume(1711 - 1776) who
- famously - defined causality in experiential terms: the constant conjunction of events.
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