So interest rates go up, and you want to sell a bond.
You will need to sell the bond at a discount to make it
viable in a higher interest rate world. For the math, going from
2% a year compounded 5 years, to 3% a year compounded 5.
The math:
100 * (1.02^5) = x * (1.03^5)
x/100 = (1.02^5) / (1.03^5)
x = 95.24
source: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in La Presse
author: PATRICK BAERT
translation: EdgeTranslate/doxa-louise
Sergey Lavrov took advantage of a bilateral meeting in eastern China with his counterpart Wang Yi to announce the advent of the new world order dreamed of by the two countries. Above, the two men in September 2020.
In the face of Ukrainian resistance and the unity of Western democracies, which have taken unprecedented sanctions against them, Russia can only rely on Chinese power to escape total economic isolation.
In this context, Sergey Lavrov took advantage of a bilateral meeting in eastern China with his counterpart Wang Yi to announce the advent of the new world order dreamed of by the two countries.
"We are living a very serious stage in the history of international relations," he said, in a video of the interview broadcast by Moscow.
"I am convinced that by the end of this stage, the international situation will be much clearer and that we [...] will advance towards a multipolar, just, democratic world order," he told his host.
"Sino-Russian relations have withstood the test of a changing the international situation," replied the latter, according to remarks reported by his ministry.
In a statement issued by Moscow, the two countries said they wanted to "continue deepening foreign policy coordination" and "expand joint action," but did not announce concrete measures that would support Russia.
"Opposed to hegemony"
Western powers have warned Beijing against any support for Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime that would allow Moscow to mitigate the impact of sanctions.
Chinese companies are cautious in their trade with Russia, for fear of being hit in turn by these sanctions.
Mr. Lavrov therefore had to settle for a reaffirmation of the unlimited nature of the friendship between the two countries in the face of the common American rival.
"Our opposition to hegemony is limitless," Chinese diplomatic spokesman Wang Wenbin said when asked about the Russian minister's visit.
Since February 24, Beijing has refused to condemn the invasion of Ukraine.
In early March, Wang Yi even hailed a "rock-solid" friendship with Moscow and defended Russia's "reasonable" concerns for its security.
A few weeks before the war, Vladimir Putin himself had been warmly received by his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing. The two countries had already celebrated a friendship "without limits" and denounced the "extension" of NATO.
The Afghan Question
Sergey Lavrov is scheduled to participate in two days of meetings on Afghanistan in China, during which he is expected to encounter an American diplomat.
Beijing and Moscow saw the departure of US forces from Kabul as evidence of America's weakening influence.
The meeting, held in Tunxi (east), in the greater Shanghai area, brings together seven countries neighbouring Afghanistan. The head of diplomacy of the Taliban in power in Kabul, Amir Khan Muttaqi, is also expected to attend, according to the China News Agency.
At the same time, a meeting of a "consultation mechanism" on Afghanistan is to be held, with the participation of diplomats from China, Russia, Pakistan, but also the United States.
According to a U.S. State Department spokesman, Washington's special representative for Afghanistan, Tom West, is scheduled to attend that meeting.
The meetings come a week after Wang Yi visited Kabul for the first time since Islamic fundamentalists came to power last August.
China shares a small border of 76 kilometers at very high altitude with Afghanistan.
Beijing has long feared that its neighbor could become a base for separatists and Islamists of the Uyghur ethnic group, the majority in its vast region of Xinjiang (Northwest).
At 18/3/22, a little dated but a still interesting piece on what it's like
for those in the Ukraine resistance. From Der Spiegel (English):
Don't want to spoil the Federal Government Budget coming
down soon for anyone, but I did read there would be cost-
cutting measures and 'looking to make Old Age Security sustainable
for the future'. Ooooh, raising retirement age to 67, are we. Thank God
for free dental care...
In all seriousness, is this really a good idea!? We may be living longer,
but that does not mean we are any more alert through it all.
I sometimes 'freeze' at the supermarket on such tasks as choosing
between Flaming Hot Nacho and Sweet Chili Heat corn chips to go
with my daughter's beloved Medium Salsa. This does not compute; what
can the difference possibly be and how does it meld with the d**n Salsa.
Who knows!? I'll snap out of it and just move on, just to not bring
attention on myself. Sneak back later and buy the black bag, or maybe
the purple.
Because, let's face it, I have very little taste sensation left. I put oregano and
and cayenne on all my meals because those are the main Pizza spices, and
I remember liking pizza quite a bit. Onward.
So here's the point. In my experience, 60 is a pretty good age to retire.
I am still very active; have taught myself several computer languages and
still post daily little musings and research finds I feel might be useful to
more busy people. but I appreciate being away from the bustle and competition.
Younger people look better, are stronger, and often prefer the company of other
younger people. And I'm okay with it.
(Just made a mental note to myself. Why aren't the elderly expected to submit a thesis
on something, or someone. Listened to Boris Johnson answer to "Would you say that
President Zelensky is Churchillian" yesterday, and it was great television 🙂)
Found this quite fascinating YouTube video on Russian-built
cities, last night. It does explain how the aim of the curent offensice
is to de-militarize but not occupy. Such cities are de-centralized,
made up of self-sufficient islands. One could not really 'take' such
a city.
In point of actual fact, the daily 'price of oil' will be the spot price with two day delivery
(Wikipedia) although Statistical Agencies will eventually compute the average daily
price on all transactions.
Was starting to wonder how the price of crude oil is actually set.
One can find everyday a price for Brent(North Sea) oil, in USD, which
is a benchmark. There is also a daily quote for WTI (West Texas Intermediate),
which is the North American standard; the two are often close, but not spot on the
same, so I was wondering...Oil is both a commodity and financial product,
traded for profit on a futures market. How does all this come together.
Rather fascinating.
Got from this Alberta energy pdf that the price of oil is what the oil producer gets.
Naturally, quality counts and a more pure product is worth more. But there is
also the question of transportation costs to delivery. For an equal product, one is worth
less than the other if it is expensive to deliver. This is why Brent is such a star: easy to
move by land or sea, although distance is also a a factor.
https://money.howstuffworks.
The above link describes high drama: what happened leading up to the 2008
financial crisis. There was indeed more going on at the time - pricipally with the
finacing of mortgages - but his was a derivatives market: not even selling oil futures
at all.
https://www.eia.gov/
To appreciate the role of futures trading, one has to consider global supply and
demand, and that means OPEC. They hold the reserves and excess capacity.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/delivery-point.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/derivative.asp
Russia has announced it will henceforth concentrate its efforts in the Donbass
region (Eastern Ukraine).
Stumbled on the following, yesterday. Not sure what to make of it:
* * *
An interesting assessment of Vladimir Putin's undertaking, from
Der Spiegel (and a glimpse at his possible successor, Alexey Dyumin):
Putin's Apocalypse: How Far Is the Russian President Willing To Go? - DER SPIEGEL
source: Liberation, CheckNews, March 24, 2022
author: Jacques Pezet
translation: GoogleTranslate/doxa-louise
More than any other period, a war period is prone to misinformation, whether from unknown sources or from official authorities. In the context of the crisis in Ukraine, Liberation's CheckNews service remains fully mobilized to answer your questions and try to disentangle the true from the false, whether statements, images or videos. Any information that you find doubtful? Do not hesitate to contact us via our form, by clicking on the banner at the top of each article.
Question asked by Colette on March 22
Did Volodymyr Zelensky suspend eleven Ukrainian opposition parties?
The Ukrainian president announced the suspension of eleven political parties during martial law, accusing them of being too close to Russia. Three of them, including the first opposition party, are represented in the Ukrainian Parliament.
On March 20, in a statement to the Ukrainian people, President Volodymyr Zelensky attacked his political opponents "who try to put their own ambitions, their own party or their careers before the interests of the state, the interests of the people" and announced the decision of its National Security and Defense Council: "In view of the total war waged by the Russian Federation and the links of certain political structures with this state, any activity of 'a number of political parties during martial law is suspended.' The leader said the Department of Justice was instructed to 'immediately take comprehensive measures to prohibit the activities'of the following eleven political parties: "Opposition Platform-For Life", "Shariy Party", "Nashi", "Opposition Bloc", "Left Opposition", "Union of of the left”, “Derzhava”, the “Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine”, the “Socialist Party”, the “Socialists” and the “Bloc of Vladimir Saldo”.
Among the parties concerned is the "Opposition Platform-For Life", the first opposition party, which obtained 43 seats out of 450 in the last legislative elections of 2019 . "Nashi", which is part of the "Opposition Bloc" alliance, has a total of six deputies. For the rest, the suspended parties are small parties, which do not have representatives in the Rada, the Ukrainian Parliament.
The other main political parties, Yulia Tymoshenko's All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" (26 seats), Petro Poroshenko's European Solidarity (25 seats) or Voice (20 seats) are still authorized in Ukraine.
“Illegal political raid”
In a column published on the website of the Qatari television channel Aljazeera , the researcher associated with the Institute for East European Studies at the Freie Universität in Berlin, Volodymyr Ishchenko, confirms that with the exception of Opposition Platform -For life, “the majority of suspended parties were small, and some were downright insignificant.” However, this Ukrainian sociologist observes that "three of the recently suspended parties participated in the 2019 parliamentary elections and together obtained around 2.7 million votes (18.3%)" and that "in the last polls carried out before the invasion of Russia, these parties collectively obtained around 16% to 20% of the vote”.
Following the announcement of its suspension, the "Opposition Platform-For Life" party, known for its pro-Russian positions (one of its former leaders, deputy Viktor Medvedchuk, currently on the run, counts Vladimir Putin as a godfather of his daughter), published a press release in which he denounces a decision "without any legal basis". “All the charges against our party were fabricated by the authorities in order to justify their inadequate actions. The only explanation for such a step by the authorities is an illegal political raid and an unscrupulous political struggle with their main opponent. Instead of political dialogue, finding a compromise and finding ways to unite the country, the authorities have relied on raids, intimidation, repression and reprisals against their opponents.”In January 2022, the British Foreign Office also warned of the "Nashi" party, believing that Moscow would seek to install a pro-Russian administration in Ukraine and place its leader Yevhen Murayev at the head of the country.
However, in his op-ed for Aljazeera , Volodymyr Ishchenko considers the meaning of the expression "pro-Russian" in Ukraine, explaining that it is a portmanteau word, where one can place both supporters marked for Russia, but who have been marginalized since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, to the defense of a position of neutrality with regard to the Russian and European bloc. “Parties and politicians who have been branded 'pro-Russian' in Ukraine – and recently suspended by the Zelensky government – have very different relations with Russia. While some may have links to Russia's soft power efforts – although these links are rarely properly investigated and proven – others are themselves subject to Russian sanctions., writes the researcher.
Recalling that "virtually all the leaders and representatives of the [left] parties with real influence on Ukraine", but also the "Opposition Platform-For Life" party (which dismissed the deputy who was too close to Putin of its leadership), "condemned the invasion of Russia and are now contributing to the defense of Ukraine" , Volodymyr Ishchenko believes that the Ukrainian President is making a mistake in suspending these political parties because if their supporters "are convinced that they have no political future in Ukraine and instead risk being persecuted, they might well start turning to Russia”.
Been trying to find an English language version of a concept
in French deterrence theory: l'échelle du perroquet (literally,
the parrot's ladder). The idea here is that one goes up it -here, France
pursuing more visible nuclear delivery tests - in the hope of seeing
the other side go down theirs ie make less inflammatory pronouncements
or scale back military aggressions. Clear, in my mind, anyway.
But then France pursues a minimalist nuclear capability: just enough to defend
its territory and, according to Wikipedia, also the case for the United Kingdom and
China. For the US and the Russian Federation, not so. So that the US cancelling a
test last March not to raise tensions is comprehensible.
Things have evolved considerably on the information front since the Cold War.
We live in a connected world and information/misinformation creates an on-going
information whirl. But one needs to pick out some important pieces to follow the
deterrence story. President Putin did make a public announcement when he put Russian
Nuclear Forces at a higher level: up the p_ ladder for some, dangerous posturing for others.
Check. And then using hypersonic missiles in a run-of-the-mill bombing: up the ladder,
but reported in the press as 'desperate'. Check. At bottom, though, it is a demonstration
of new capability. should play in russia's favor in a International Law context.
As for comments that Russia would consider using nuclear weapons if it judged the
Russian State to be in danger; again, from International Law, the one contet where
the use of such weapons would be considered post facto.
* * *
https://www.defnat.com/e-RDN/vue-article-cahier.php?carticle=301
* * *
Have to admit I have been having a little bit of information fun with posts on
cosmetic surgery and world leaders. In a quest to keep all this humane and relatable,
a nice one from California...
Think I'll be going for a walk TODAY!
(I actually received a Flood Preparadness Card from the federal
government, yesterday...)
Found a piece on what russia might mean by 'de-nazification'.
What Did Putin Mean by ‘Denazification’ of Ukraine and Why is It so Important? | Algora Blog
My bedtime reading (69 pages):
https://www.csis.org/analysis/complex-air-defense-countering-hypersonic-missile-threat
* * *
Hypersonic means at Mach5 +. Less than that might be Supersonic.
The Kalibr missile is supersonic.
Ballistic missiles are launched from rockets and fall bact to earth by
gravity. Cruise missiles have their own power. A hypersonic ballistic missile
goes to near-space and falls back to earth with declining hypersonic speed.
The Zircon missile has a scramjet that takes over once the missile is rocket launched.
It accelerates.
At high speeds, the air around a missile forms a plasma. At high altitude the
air is much thinner.
This is the great advantage of hypersonic missiles; they can manoeuvre once
launched and are approaching target. A multiple re-entry missile might have
up to 16 different targets.
* * *
The horizon makes it impossible to see a hypersonic missile before it
is near the end of its mission.
Yikes! the Zircon missile is intended to sink warships!!
* * *
https://behorizon.org/kinzhal-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-in-modern-warfare/
source: Radio-Canada
translation: GoogleTranslate/doxa--louise
On the 24th day of its offensive in Ukraine, the Russian army said on Saturday that it had fired Kinjal hypersonic missiles, a ballistic weapon that it had never used before in conflicts.
A Russian Kinjal hypersonic missile mounted under a MiG-31 fighter.© Sergei Karpukhin/Reuters
Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said the attack was carried out on Friday against a large underground warehouse of missiles and ammunition of the Ukrainian army aviation in the locality of Delyatin, in the Ivano-Frankivsk region of western Ukraine.
Touted by Moscow as " invincible " - as stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin - the hypersonic missile, which belongs to a family of new weapons developed by Russia, has been deployed many times in exercises since the first successful test in 2018.
Moscow presents it as a nightmare for air defense systems. Its speed, which can reach Mach 10, or 12,000 km/h - and its maneuverability make it difficult or impossible to intercept. Some Western military experts, however, felt that Russia may be exaggerating the capabilities of this air-to-ground weapon.
Russian military expert Pavel Felgenhauer asserts that the use of this missile does not give Russia a strategic advantage in Ukraine, but its psychological effect is certain.
Russia has developed this type of armament to have weapons capable of evading defense systems such as the American missile shield (MDS) in Europe.
The alleged use of the hypersonic weapon comes at a time when the Russian military does not yet appear to have full control of the skies, with Ukraine's anti-aircraft defense still managing to inflict losses on Moscow.
Radio-Canada.ca
* * *
You have to be quick to see it:
Been doing some reading, trying to make sense of threats of
a possible nuclear confrontation coming out of current events in Ukraine.
Clearly, the Warsaw Pact is no more. This was the Soviet-led alliance
opposing NATO during the Cold War. But what kind of alliances does
Russia benefit from at the moment.
Collective Security Treaty Organization - Wikipedia
Organisation de coopération de Shanghai — Wikipédia (wikipedia.org)
President Biden has been price-shaming oil companies because
gas prices are not going down as much as one would think reasonable given
lower crude oil prices. This might be shrewd politics, but it is poor
economics.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/16/business/gas-prices-biden/index.html
Daily price changes are a result of wolesale crude, wholesale refined and
production costs. Crude oil is largely traded on a futures market, and
various brands have contracts for refined crude ie gasoline. See the explanation
from ShellOil Canada, below. Heck, it might just be nicer weather is stoking
demand...
https://www.shell.ca/en_ca/motorists/my-fuels/understanding-fuel-pricing.html
The Russian Zircon missile makes a vertical ascent and flies out at
Mach 9. There is no warning (a sonic boom travels at Mach1).
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17940186/russia-footage-zircon-hypersonic-nuke-missile-hit-london/
Donald Trump did enjoy mocking Joe Biden's 'awful facelift'.
The pro view: things are pulling on the side of his face, a sure sign...
Close to 70 years old, Russian President Vadimir Putinès appearance has
raised speculation about his mental and physical health.
French media have reported that the long conference table that separates him
from his advisors is due to Covid-19.
Macron got the treatment after refusing a covid test.
As for cosmetic surgery:
The price of crude oil took a bit of a dive March 9, 2022. See below.
The market remains volatile, but prices at the pump might continue
going up but at a lesser pace as Saudi Arabia seems willing to consider
upping its output from its unused capacity.
Pétrole : le Brent clôture en forte baisse de 13%, à 111,14 dollars (lefigaro.fr)
* * *
From todays's news, Dr Samsuni Barkido, current head of OPEC:
KBD means kilo-barrels per day
In the oil industry, an oil barrel is defined as 42 US gallons, which is about 159 litres, or 35 imperial gallons.
Emmanuel Macron should be announcing his candidacy to the
upcoming French Presidential election. He is, in fact, the last candidate
to do so; a somewhat gentlemanly gesture. In effect, the French President
is elected by universal suffrage (since 1962) and since 1958, all those
wishing to present themselves as candidates must first gather an
endorsement from at least 500 'élus' ie people already or previously
elected. He is clocking in last.
This provision was first enacted to avoid frivolous or vanity candidates.
It does not mean those who present someone necessarily support them
politically; just vouching they are acceptable as candidates. Also seen as a way
of keeping things democratic, and someone might well present a candidate they
disagree with.
* * *
The view from Moscow:
How Russia’s Nobel-Winning Newspaper Is Covering Ukraine | The New Yorker
Cut my own hair, this afternoon. This is usually a stressful moment
for me but this time, had fun with it. Been watching some videos on
how to layer and it helps to section properly. The idea to use styling
gel on wet hair and then dry was very helpful...
Undoubtedly, there was an element of lazyness in letting
the mutual assured destruction argument stand as the 'resolution'
to the proliferation of nuclear and possibly other extreme weapons:
so terrible that one would not want these on self, so one wouldn't
use them on others. And the hope was that, over time, such weapons
would be phased out as mankind 'matured'. Well, we are paying for
that squeamishness now.
Because - on the arguments face of it - what is the current conflict about.
It is about what side are various countries on within the deadly equation.
Many Easter European countries have chosen to join the Atlantic countries, the
fun countries with a lunatic press and rampant consumerism (and the most weapons).
And they were allowed to do so moving the demarcation line East on the EuroAsian
map. And now Russia argues it is aggrieved, while its economic prospects narrowing
dangerously. Putting it mildly...
So now Russia has supersonic missiles, China has supersonics; even modest little
North Korea has them, engaging in a wild flury of tests only recently. Interestingly,
the US does not...yet. Theirs are meant to come online in 2023. Asleep at the
switch, are we...? Could such restraint actually prove to be...prudent?
Morning coffee is tepid where I live, if anyone is wondering.
From Libération:
The siege of Kiev is about to begin.
* * *
Things that annoy me: all these economic sanctions against
Russia. This thing can go on for years. All that the sanctions are
doing is spreading misery to the Russian population, from that
to the Ukranian one. Really?! Ursula von der Leyen is unblocking
EU 500 million for humanitarian aid. Good idea!!
Nato activation. The current Russian constitution is modelled on the
French one. Putin hysteria is stopping us from seeing what may be going on.
And not to be mean, but the notion of "all for one; one for all" is straight out
of Alexandre Dumas (père) 19th century Musketeer novels. The French
Dickens, if you will. Deterrence through mutual assured destruction seemed
clever enough in the 20th century when no one knew how to extricate us from
this il-logical situation. Needs work for the current world order!!!
* * *
The view from Politico (Fiona Hill):
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340
* * *
The view from YouTube:
