Been trying to find an English language version of a concept
in French deterrence theory: l'échelle du perroquet (literally,
the parrot's ladder). The idea here is that one goes up it -here, France
pursuing more visible nuclear delivery tests - in the hope of seeing
the other side go down theirs ie make less inflammatory pronouncements
or scale back military aggressions. Clear, in my mind, anyway.
But then France pursues a minimalist nuclear capability: just enough to defend
its territory and, according to Wikipedia, also the case for the United Kingdom and
China. For the US and the Russian Federation, not so. So that the US cancelling a
test last March not to raise tensions is comprehensible.
Things have evolved considerably on the information front since the Cold War.
We live in a connected world and information/misinformation creates an on-going
information whirl. But one needs to pick out some important pieces to follow the
deterrence story. President Putin did make a public announcement when he put Russian
Nuclear Forces at a higher level: up the p_ ladder for some, dangerous posturing for others.
Check. And then using hypersonic missiles in a run-of-the-mill bombing: up the ladder,
but reported in the press as 'desperate'. Check. At bottom, though, it is a demonstration
of new capability. should play in russia's favor in a International Law context.
As for comments that Russia would consider using nuclear weapons if it judged the
Russian State to be in danger; again, from International Law, the one contet where
the use of such weapons would be considered post facto.
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https://www.defnat.com/e-RDN/vue-article-cahier.php?carticle=301
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Have to admit I have been having a little bit of information fun with posts on
cosmetic surgery and world leaders. In a quest to keep all this humane and relatable,
a nice one from California...
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