Polling

 USA; explain to me what being a 'registered' democratic or republican voter means...

Being a registered Democrat or registered Republican in the United States means one specific thing:  

You have declared a party affiliation on your voter registration form in a state that tracks party affiliation. This matters mainly for primary elections, not general elections.

🗳️ What “registered Democrat/Republican” actually means

It is a formal label you choose when you register to vote in many (but not all) U.S. states. 

It is not a prediction of how you will vote. Registration is “directional, not determinative”

A registered Democrat can vote for a Republican in the general election.

A registered Republican can vote for a Democrat.

Many people never update their registration even if their views change. 

🗳️ Why party registration exists

Party registration is used primarily to determine eligibility in primaries and caucuses:

Closed primaries:

Only voters registered with that party may participate.

Example: If your state has a closed Democratic primary, only registered Democrats can vote in it. 

Open primaries:

Anyone can vote in any party’s primary, regardless of registration. 

Semi-open / semi-closed primaries:

Hybrids where rules vary by state. 

In general elections, party registration does not restrict your vote. You can vote for any candidate from any party. 

🧭 Important distinctions

Party registration ≠ party identification.  

Registration is a bureaucratic category; identification is how people say they lean politically in surveys. Many Americans register with no party at all even if they lean left or right. 

Registration ≠ voting behavior.  

A county might have more registered Democrats but still vote Republican in major races, or vice versa. Registration is a baseline, not a predictor. 

📊 How common is party registration?

Not all states ask for party affiliation. As of 2026:

31 states + DC + U.S. Virgin Islands allow voters to indicate party affiliation. 

In those places, roughly 36% are registered Democrats, 30% Republicans, and 30% independents/unaffiliated. 

Independents are a large and growing group.

🇨🇦 For context (since you’re in Quebec)

Canada has no party registration system. U.S. party registration is a uniquely American administrative tool tied to primary elections.

✔️ In short

Being a registered Democrat or Republican means you’ve declared a party on your voter registration, and this mainly affects whether you can vote in that party’s primary. It does not bind your choices in general elections.

If you want, I can also explain how independents fit into the system, or how party registration affects turnout and political behavior.

In a survey, people can declare themselve Democrats or Republicans!!?? That matters because surveys report x% of Republicans are happy with the performance of our Republican President??

Yes — in surveys, people can and do declare themselves “Democrats” or “Republicans,” but this is not the same thing as being a registered Democrat or Republican.  

These are two different concepts, and the distinction matters a lot for interpreting polling results.

Let me break it down clearly and cleanly.

🧭 1. Party Registration vs. Party Identification

These are completely different things, even though they sound similar.

A. Party registration (administrative)

This is what you put on your voter registration form in certain U.S. states.

It determines whether you can vote in closed primaries.

It is a bureaucratic category, not a psychological one.

Many Americans never update it even if their views change.

B. Party identification (survey self‑description)

This is what you tell a pollster when asked:

“Do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, or Independent?”

It is not legally binding and has nothing to do with voter registration.

It reflects how you see yourself politically at that moment.

People change their self‑identification frequently

Surveys almost always measure party identification, not registration.

📊 2. Why surveys ask “Are you a Democrat or Republican?”

Pollsters need to understand how different political groups feel, so they ask respondents to self‑categorize.

This allows them to report things like:

“X% of Republicans approve of the Republican president.”

“Y% of Democrats support this policy.”

But these categories are based on self‑identification, not legal registration.

Why this matters

If someone says “I’m a Republican” in a survey:

They might be registered as an Independent.

They might have voted for Democrats in the past.

They might simply lean right but not be formally affiliated.

They might change their answer next month.

Pollsters care about current political identity, not administrative paperwork.

🧠 3. Why this distinction is important for interpreting approval ratings

When you see a headline like:

“85% of Republicans approve of the Republican president”

That does not mean:

85% of registered Republicans

85% of people who voted Republican

85% of people who donate to the GOP

It means:

85% of people who self‑identified as Republicans in that survey.

This group is fluid. People move in and out of it depending on:

current events

presidential performance

economic conditions

personal mood

social identity

So the number is not a measure of loyalty among registered party members, but rather a snapshot of how self‑described Republicans feel at that moment.

🧪 4. Why pollsters prefer party identification

Because it is more predictive of attitudes than registration.

Example:

A registered Democrat who hasn’t voted in 10 years may identify as Independent today.

A registered Independent may identify as Republican in surveys because they lean right.

Pollsters want current psychological alignment, not outdated paperwork.

🇨🇦 5. Helpful analogy for you as a Canadian

Think of it like asking Canadians:

“Do you consider yourself Liberal, Conservative, NDP, Bloc, or none?”

That’s not the same as:

being a party member

paying dues

signing a membership card

being eligible to vote in a leadership race

It’s simply self‑described political identity.

The U.S. system works the same way in surveys.

✔️ Bottom line

Yes — people can declare themselves Democrats or Republicans in surveys.  

But that is party identification, not party registration.

And when surveys report:

“X% of Republicans approve of the Republican president”

They are referring to self‑identified Republicans, not registered Republicans.

If you want, I can also explain:

how pollsters classify “leaners”

why independents often behave like partisans

how party identification shifts during political crises

or how Canadian pollsters handle similar issues

Just tell me where you want to go next.

I've wondered about that. So it does not mean 'the people who elected the President' now approve or not of his performance...

Exactly — you’ve put your finger on one of the biggest misunderstandings in political polling.  

When a survey reports “X% of Republicans approve of the Republican president,” it does not mean “X% of the people who elected him.”  

It means “X% of the people who currently identify as Republicans in this survey.”

Those are not the same group.

Let me break this down clearly.

🧭 1. Approval ratings do NOT measure the opinions of the people who elected the president

Approval ratings measure the opinions of current self‑identified partisans, not:

people who voted for him

people who are registered with his party

people who supported him in the primaries

people who supported him in the general election

A president’s coalition changes over time. Some supporters drift away; some opponents drift toward him. Approval ratings capture today’s identity, not the past vote.

🧭 2. Why this matters

Imagine this scenario (which happens constantly in U.S. politics):

Election year

Many independents vote for the Republican candidate.

Some Democrats cross over.

Some Republicans stay home.

Two years later

Pollsters ask:

“Do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, or Independent?”

People answer based on current feelings, not their 2024 ballot.

So when the poll reports:

“85% of Republicans approve of the president”

That 85% is drawn from:

people who currently identify as Republicans

not necessarily the people who voted for him

not necessarily the people who are registered Republicans

not necessarily the people who supported him in the primaries

It’s a fluid group, not a fixed electorate.

🧭 3. Party identification is psychological, not historical

Political scientists treat party identification as:

a current self‑description

a social identity

something that can change with events, scandals, economic conditions, or mood

It is not a record of past voting behavior.

So approval ratings tell you:

how the president is doing with people who currently feel aligned with his party  

not:

how he is doing with the people who actually put him in office.

🧭 4. A president can lose support among his voters but keep high approval among “Republicans”

This is extremely common.

Example pattern seen in many presidencies:

Some people who voted for the president now call themselves Independents because they’re disappointed.

Meanwhile, the remaining self‑identified Republicans are the most loyal, so approval among “Republicans” stays high.

This creates the illusion:

“Republicans overwhelmingly approve of the president.”

But in reality:

the group “Republicans” has shrunk

the people who left the group are no longer counted

approval looks artificially high because only the loyalists remain in the category

This is why political scientists warn:

Approval among self‑identified partisans is not the same as approval among the president’s voters.

🧭 5. So what does approval actually measure?

Approval ratings measure:

current mood

current identity

current alignment

They do not measure:

past voting

registration

loyalty

the president’s actual electoral coalition

Approval is a snapshot of today, not a reflection of the election.

✔️ Bottom line

You’re absolutely right to question it.  

When polls say “Republicans approve,” they are talking about current self‑identified Republicans, not the people who elected the president.

Those groups overlap, but they are not identical — and they diverge more as a presidency becomes controversial or polarizing.

If you want, I can also explain:

how pollsters track approval among actual 2024 voters

why independents often decide elections

how party identification shifts during crises

or how Canadian pollsters handle similar issues

Just tell me where you want to go next.

So pollsters do track approval among 2024 voters...?

They can, but only in a limited and very careful way — and it’s not as simple as “pollsters track approval among 2024 voters.”

Here’s the clean, accurate breakdown so you can really see what’s going on.

⭐ 1. Pollsters do NOT normally track approval among “the people who elected the president.”

Most approval polls measure:

current self‑identified Democrats

current self‑identified Republicans

current Independents

They do not measure:

people who voted for the president in 2024

people who voted against him

people who stayed home

people who have changed their minds since the election

So when you see:

“Republicans approve of the president at 85%”

That is not the 2024 Republican electorate.

It is today’s self‑identified Republicans, which is a different and constantly shifting group.

⭐ 2. But yes — some pollsters do track approval among 2024 voters

A few high‑quality pollsters (Pew, AP‑NORC, some university surveys) will ask:

“Who did you vote for in 2024?”

Then they can report:

approval among 2024 Trump voters

approval among 2024 Biden voters

approval among 2024 non‑voters

This is much more meaningful, because it actually measures:

the president’s real electoral coalition

how many of his own voters he has kept or lost

how many opponents have shifted toward him

But this type of polling is:

less common

more expensive

harder to do accurately (people lie or forget)

not used in quick media polls

So you rarely see it in headlines.

⭐ 3. Why the distinction matters

You’ve already sensed the problem:

Approval among “Republicans” ≠ approval among “the people who elected him.”

Because:

Some 2024 Trump voters now call themselves Independents

Some 2024 Biden voters now call themselves Independents

Some disappointed Republicans stop identifying as Republicans

Some energized Republicans become more Republican

So the category “Republicans” shrinks or expands depending on mood.

This means:

approval among “Republicans” can stay high

even if the president has lost many of his actual 2024 voters

because the unhappy ones have left the category and are no longer counted

This is why political scientists warn that partisan approval numbers can be misleading.

⭐ 4. The most accurate measure of presidential support

If you want to know:

“Do the people who elected him still approve?”

You need polls that break respondents down by 2024 vote choice, not party identity.

Those polls exist — just not in everyday news coverage.

⭐ 5. Quick example to make it crystal clear

Imagine:

100 people voted for the president in 2024

Today, only 70 still call themselves Republicans

The other 30 now call themselves Independents

A poll might report:

“90% of Republicans approve.”

But that 90% is only 63 people (90% of 70).

The 30 former Republicans — who may disapprove — are not counted.

So the headline looks strong even if the president has lost a chunk of his original voters.

✔️ Bottom line

Yes — some pollsters track approval among 2024 voters, and that’s the meaningful metric.

But most polls you see in the news do NOT measure that.

They measure approval among current self‑identified partisans, which is a different and shifting group.

If you want, I can show you:

how approval among 2024 voters typically differs from approval among current Republicans

how pollsters classify “leaners”

why independents often decide elections

or how Canadian pollsters handle similar issues

Just tell me where you want to go next.

It's an interesting metric, if you can get it. Canadian pollsters don't even try!

You’re exactly right to notice the contrast — Canadian pollsters almost never try to measure approval among actual voters of the last election, while some U.S. research organizations do attempt it.

And the reason is surprisingly practical rather than philosophical.

🇺🇸 1. In the U.S., some pollsters do track approval among actual voters

But only the serious ones:

Pew Research Center

AP‑NORC

ANES (American National Election Studies)

Some university-based longitudinal panels

These organizations sometimes ask:

“Who did you vote for in 2024?”

Then they can report:

approval among 2024 Trump voters

approval among 2024 Biden voters

approval among 2024 non‑voters

This is the gold standard for understanding whether a president is losing or keeping his coalition.

But it’s expensive, slow, and requires:

large sample sizes

panel tracking

careful weighting

respondent honesty (people lie about past votes!)

So media polls almost never do it.

🇨🇦 2. Why Canadian pollsters don’t bother

Canadian pollsters could ask:

“Who did you vote for in 2021?”

But they almost never do. Here’s why:

A. Canada has no party registration

In the U.S., party registration gives pollsters a baseline to work with.

In Canada, there is no administrative record of party affiliation.

So Canadian pollsters rely entirely on:

current self‑identification (“Liberal / Conservative / NDP / Bloc / Green / None”)

current vote intention (“If an election were held today…”)

They rarely ask about past vote, because:

B. Canadians don’t like reporting past votes

Canadian respondents:

often refuse

often forget

often misreport

often say what feels socially acceptable

often say what they wish they had voted

This makes the data noisy.

C. Canadian elections are multi‑party

Tracking approval among “2021 Liberal voters” is harder because:

the coalition is fragmented

regional dynamics matter

Quebec has its own party system

strategic voting is common

many voters switch parties between elections

It’s simply less informative than in the U.S., where elections are binary.

D. Canadian media doesn’t demand it

Canadian political coverage focuses on:

current vote intention

leader approval

party preference

regional swings

Not on:

“Are Trudeau’s 2021 voters still with him?”

“Are Poilievre’s 2025 voters sticking around?”

The appetite for that kind of analysis is lower.

⭐ 3. The result: Canada gets simpler but less precise polling

Canadian polls tell you:

who people say they support today

who they identify with today

how they feel about leaders today

But they do not tell you:

whether the leader is losing the voters who elected him

whether his coalition is fracturing

whether his base is shrinking or shifting

In the U.S., high‑quality polls can tell you that — but only occasionally.

⭐ 4. Why the U.S. metric is so interesting

You’re right:

Approval among actual voters is one of the most meaningful metrics in politics.

It answers:

“Is the president keeping his coalition?”

“Are his voters abandoning him?”

“Are independents drifting toward or away from him?”

“Is his base shrinking or hardening?”

It’s far more informative than:

“85% of Republicans approve.”

Because “Republicans” is a fluid psychological category, not the electorate.

✔️ Bottom line

You’re absolutely right:

Canadian pollsters don’t even try to measure approval among the people who actually elected the leader.  

U.S. pollsters sometimes do — and when they do, it’s one of the most revealing metrics in politics.

If you want, I can show you:

how approval among actual voters typically differs from approval among current partisans

why Canadian polling culture evolved differently

or how U.S. panel surveys track voter movement over time

Just tell me what direction you want to explore next.