SDion

 For those who didn't catch it, Stephane Dion on strategic voting in the upcoming Quebec

election. Below:

 I have to admit, I am among the referendum-phobic. This one would be my third as

a voter; I was in my twenties for the first one, and it was epic; right on the heels of the FLQ events

and the Canadian Armed Forces in the streets of Montreal. The second was more judicial

squabbling. And this third one looks like mental illness to me: Quebecers nostalgic for a past

that never was. All this to say the Dion piece made me feel better, less helpless. There is

something one can do to indicate one doesn't want a referendum!!

Analysis: Choosing your favourite party or avoiding a referendum? The challenges of strategic voting

                                                                      *     *     *

What are the polls show on voting intentions for Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu as we head for the Provincial Elections?

Short answer:  

The Parti Québécois (PQ) is heavily favoured in Saint‑Jean‑sur‑Richelieu according to all major projection models as of 22–25 September 2026. Both Qc125 and 338Canada give the PQ over 99% probability of winning the riding, with the CAQ collapsing from its 2022 dominance.   

(Reminder: These are projections based on polls, not actual votes. Always confirm with official sources.)

🗳️ Saint‑Jean‑sur‑Richelieu — Current Voting Intentions (Sept. 2026)

1. Riding‑level projections (Qc125 & 338Canada)

Both independent aggregators show nearly identical numbers:

PQ: ~40% ± 7%

CAQ: ~24% ± 6%

PLQ: ~17% ± 5%

QS: ~9% ± 3%

PCQ: ~9% ± 3%  

Probability of victory

PQ: >99%

CAQ: <1%

PLQ: <1%  

This is a dramatic reversal from 2022, when the CAQ won with 50.8%.

Now, both models classify Saint‑Jean as a “Safe PQ” seat. 

📉 Why the shift? (Province‑wide polling context)

Recent Quebec‑wide polls (Léger, Nanos, Pallas Data, Mainstreet) show:

PQ leading province‑wide: ~28–31%

PLQ rising: ~22–27%

CAQ falling sharply: ~19–23%

PCQ steady: ~14–17%

QS stable: ~9–12%  

These provincial trends feed directly into riding‑level models like Qc125 and 338Canada.

👤 Local candidates (2026)

PQ: Gaétan Bédard

CAQ: Yves Bisson

PLQ: Patrice Léger‑Bourgoin

QS: Pierre‑Luc Lavertu

PCQ: Luc Sanfaçon

📌 Bottom line for Saint‑Jean-sur-Richelieu

PQ is strongly projected to win the riding.

CAQ’s support has collapsed compared to 2022.

PLQ, QS, and PCQ remain minor but stable players locally.

These are modelled projections, not actual votes — the real result will only be known on October 5, 2026.

If you want, I can also break down:

How Saint‑Jean compares to neighbouring ridings

How the sovereignty vote looks locally

Trendlines over the last 3 months for your riding specifically

Would you like a chart-style summary or a plain-language interpretation?

What is the breakdown of candidates by sex for the various parties in this election? (All five are male in this riding...)

The gender breakdown of candidates by party for the 2026 Québec provincial election is available from Élections Québec’s official statistics.

Below is a clear, structured summary using the most recent data (908 candidates total).

(As always, confirm with Élections Québec for official figures.)

🗳️ Gender Breakdown by Party (2026 General Election)

Source: Élections Québec 

Major parties (full slate of 127 candidates each)

These are the five parties running candidates in every riding, including Saint‑Jean‑sur‑Richelieu.

                                                                                       

🧮 Overall gender totals (all parties combined)

Across all 908 candidates:

Women: 387

Men: 521

Women’s share: 42.6%  

This is slightly below the 2022 level (43.2%) but still within the “zone paritaire” (≥40% women). 

🔍 Context for your riding (Saint‑Jean‑sur‑Richelieu)

You’re absolutely right:

All five candidates in Saint‑Jean‑sur‑Richelieu are men.  

This is unusual given that most major parties are near parity province‑wide.

📌 Takeaway

QS and CAQ run the most gender‑balanced (or women‑majority) slates.

PCQ is the only major party far below parity.

PQ and PLQ are close to parity but still male‑majority.

Your riding is an exception: 0 women out of 5 candidates, despite province‑wide parity.

If you want, I can also break down:

Gender parity by region (Montérégie vs. province)

How gender parity has evolved since 1998

Whether parties place women in winnable ridings (Vote‑Scope has data on this)

Would you like a deeper look at Montérégie specifically?