source: Le Figaro
author: Alexis Feertchak
translation: GoogleTranslate/doxa-louise
Updated on 06/08/2019 at 18:12; first published the 06/08/2019 at 17:52
China, Korea, Japan: Asia re-arms all-out
OVERVIEW - Against a backdrop of geopolitical rivalry between Beijing and Washington, a nuclear crisis with Pyongyang, and a historic quarrel between Seoul and Tokyo, military issues are occupying a growing space in the Asian news.
Martial declarations, military exercises, and arms purchases often testify to the geopolitical climate. The Asian continent does not escape this principle while various tensions, some local, other international, intermingle or even reinforce each other.
To the North Korean nuclear crisis is added the historical dispute now rekindled between South Korea and Japan, both allies of the United States in their rivalry with China, a new superpower, which, in turn, exerts its influence in Taiwan, Hong Kong or the South China Sea.
● North Korea plays within limits
A few weeks before Seoul and Washington hold joint military exercises, Pyongyang proceeded on Tuesday with the fourth round of "missiles" since 25 July . In appearance two ballistic missiles that would have traveled 450 km, according to the chief of staff of South Korea. So these are still short-range weapons , the intermediate missiles having a range of 500 km to 5500 km. Beyond this limit, missiles are described as intercontinental and are reserved for strategic strikes planned in the context of nuclear deterrence. Pyongyang plays it safe: such testing is illegal under the sanctions voted by the UN Security Council, but do not cross the red line that would represent the firing of a missile of intermediate range (which could reach the American island of Guam in the Pacific) or an intercontinental missile (which could reach in theory all of the United-States). On the other hand, the communist regime reminds us that it can strike any point in South Korea or Japan, which was already the case before the accession of Pyongyang to nuclear power.
Less spectacular but in fact very significant, Kim Jong-un inspected last week the construction of a very particular submarine since it is of type "launcher", ie bearer of ballistic missiles fired from under the sea. Unambiguously, the communist leader shows the United States that his regime can quickly develop an underwater component to its nuclear deterrence capabiity. This is the Holy Grail which allows an atomic state to guarantee its " second strike capability " by being able to retaliate even when it has been hit by a first nuclear attack. If the political crisis between Pyongyang and Washington has calmed since 2017, however, from the point of view of proliferation, it has worsened because the North Korean regime continues its nuclear program in quantity and quality. The "denuclearization of the Korean peninsula", invoked by Trump and Kim at the Singapore summit in June 2018, has so far been fizzling.
● China and the United States stand out
On Tuesday morning, the Chinese warned America against a deployment of intermediate-range land-based missiles in the Asia-Pacific region. "China will not sit idly by," warned a representative of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. A reply to the statements of the new Pentagon leader, Mark Esper, who announced Saturday during a tour of Asia that he wanted the deployment of such weapons "as soon as possible."
This escalation of threaths follows the US withdrawal last week from the INF Treaty . Signed in 1987 between the United States and the USSR, it prohibited the manufacture, deployment and use of ground-to-ground missiles with a range of 500 to 5500 km. For Washington, such a withdrawal is aimed less at Russia, which it accuses of having violated the treaty, than China, which is not a signatory . With its hands free, Beijing is developing a regional "denial of access" strategy that builds on several intermediate-range ballistic missile programs. Some of them, specifically designed for naval defense, is particularly worrisome to the US Navy, whose aircraft carriers are the main means of missile launch. By developing land-based missiles, America could try to rebalance the situation while China largely controls the South China Sea, which is at stake in many territorial disputes with coastal countries, and maintain strong pressure against Taiwan.
● South Korea and Japan revive historical tensions
In the context of the North Korean crisis and the rise of China, South Korea hinted last week that by the end of the 2020s it will acquire its first aircraft carrier , equipped with F -35B, a few months after Japan itself decided to alter its helicopter carriers so that they can accommodate the American fighter. The growing interest of the Japanese and South Koreans in the naval air force can not be explained only by the great ambitions of Beijing, which will put its second aircraft carrier into service this year and build two more modern ones. The reaction of Seoul also illustrates the standoff that opposes it to Japan. The rivalry between the two Asian powers is not new, dating back to the colonization of the Korean peninsula by imperial Japan from 1910 to 1945. Despite a normalization treaty in 1965, the two countries are regularly at odds, especially since the end of the year 2018 and more in recent weeks . While the crisis is mainly reflected in political condemnations and trade sanctions , a latent military dimension remains, recalling that the conflict is also territorial, with Japan claiming the sovereignty of the Dokdo Islands controlled by South Korea.
This quarrel can only embarrass the United States, which, beyond the arms exports that it can generate , would like to be able to offer to Beijing the image of a united front with its two allies Japanese and South Korean. Especially as Beijing, for its part, strengthens its strategic and military ties with Russia, explicitly mentioned in its latest Defense White Paper . It is not trivial that, in late July, a Russian-Chinese air patrol comprising heavy bombers resulted in a diplomatic incident and warning fire after a Russian warplane entered the airspace of South Korea. In Asia, one hears the sound of weapons every day, weakly, but distinctly.
