Something of a cold bath about military preparedness in China for an eventual
move on Taiwan, this morning. From the New York Times:
* * *
Ford aircraft carrier; this carrier was announced to have reached proximity to Venezuela...
Yes — the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, has recently arrived in the Caribbean near Venezuela as part of a U.S. military buildup. The deployment was announced in late October and confirmed this week, with the carrier strike group entering the U.S. Southern Command’s area of responsibility.
🚢 Key Facts About the Deployment
Carrier involved: USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), the U.S. Navy’s newest and largest aircraft carrier, capable of hosting over 4,500 crew and 60 aircraft.
Strike group composition: Includes Carrier Air Wing Eight (nine squadrons), guided-missile destroyers USS Bainbridge and USS Mahan, and the command ship USS Winston S. Churchill. Additional vessels like the USS Gettysburg cruiser and amphibious ships are also in the region.
Timeline: Deployment announced October 24 while in Croatia; the group crossed the Mediterranean and Atlantic, entering SOUTHCOM’s area on November 11.
Mission stated by U.S.: Officially framed as part of operations against drug cartels and transnational criminal organizations, with at least 19 strikes already carried out against alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific.
Venezuelan reaction: President Nicolás Maduro’s government has condemned the move, calling it a pretext for regime change and accusing Washington of fabricating a crisis.
⚖️ Strategic Context
Escalation of tensions: The deployment significantly increases U.S. combat power in Latin America, raising fears of confrontation with Venezuela. The Ford’s arrival coincides with ongoing U.S. strikes that have reportedly killed at least 76 people in recent weeks.
Symbolic weight: The Ford is not just any carrier — it represents the cutting edge of U.S. naval power, and its presence near Venezuela signals a major show of force.
Regional impact: SOUTHCOM’s area of responsibility covers Latin America and the Caribbean. The buildup suggests Washington is reinforcing deterrence and surveillance capabilities in the region.
📌 Takeaway
The USS Gerald R. Ford’s proximity to Venezuela is both a military and political signal. Officially, it’s about combating narcotics trafficking, but the timing and scale of deployment have heightened suspicions in Caracas and fueled speculation about broader U.S. intentions.
Would you like me to map out the geographic positioning of the Ford strike group relative to Venezuela and nearby bases? That could help visualize how close the carrier is and what operational reach it has.
We know Venezuela has accords with Russia. Are there any Russian arms on Venezuelan ground at the moment?
Yes — Venezuela currently has Russian weapons deployed on its territory, including advanced air-defense systems and older Soviet-era equipment, with Moscow signaling readiness to send even more sophisticated arms.
🛡️ Russian Arms Present in Venezuela
Air-defense systems: Russia has delivered Pantsir-S1 and Buk-M2E batteries to Venezuela, reinforcing the existing S-300VM (Antey-2500) long-range system.
Ground forces equipment: Venezuela continues to rely on Russian-made tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, which remain the backbone of its conventional forces.
Anti-ship and missile assets: Venezuelan fighter jets have been shown armed with Russian anti-ship missiles, part of a deterrence posture against U.S. naval forces.
Militia integration: The Bolivarian Militia, claimed by Maduro to number over 8 million members, is being trained with Russian small arms and older Soviet-era weapons.
🚀 Potential New Deliveries
Hypersonic missiles: Russian officials have openly discussed supplying Venezuela with the Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile, capable of carrying nuclear or conventional warheads and described as “impossible to intercept”.
Kalibr cruise missiles: Moscow has also signaled willingness to transfer Kalibr cruise missiles, which can strike land and naval targets at long ranges.
Escalation risk: Analysts warn that such deployments would echo the Cuban Missile Crisis, though logistical constraints may limit the scale of actual transfers.
⚖️ Strategic Implications
Deterrence posture: The presence of Russian air-defense systems already complicates U.S. freedom of action in the Caribbean. Any addition of hypersonic or cruise missiles would dramatically raise the stakes.
Symbolic alliance: These arms underscore Venezuela’s reliance on Russia as a strategic partner, both for military technology and political backing.
Escalation risk: The U.S. carrier strike group’s proximity to Venezuela, combined with Russian arms on the ground, creates a volatile environment where miscalculation could trigger confrontation.
📌 Takeaway: Venezuela already fields Russian-made air-defense systems, armored vehicles, and anti-ship missiles, while Moscow is openly considering sending hypersonic and cruise missiles. This means Russian arms are not only present but could soon expand in scope, deepening the U.S.–Russia proxy tension in Latin America.
Would you like me to map out Venezuela’s current Russian weapons by category (air, land, sea) in a comparative table? That would give a clear snapshot of what’s already deployed versus what’s being considered.
I was a kid during the Cuban Missile Crisis, but I remember clearly the US argument that having nuclear attack capable arms in the Americas would not be tolerated. Is this still the US position?
Yes — the United States still maintains the position that nuclear attack–capable weapons deployed in the Western Hemisphere by adversaries are unacceptable. While the rhetoric is less dramatic than during the Cuban Missile Crisis, U.S. nuclear policy continues to emphasize deterrence, denial of hostile nuclear deployments in the Americas, and reassurance of allies.
📜 Continuity of U.S. Policy Since the Cuban Missile Crisis
Historical precedent: In 1962, the U.S. drew a “red line” against Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba, insisting that nuclear strike weapons in the Americas would not be tolerated.
Modern doctrine: The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) reaffirmed that the fundamental role of U.S. nuclear weapons is to deter nuclear attack and that they also deter “all forms of strategic attack”.
Extended deterrence: Current U.S. policy explicitly promises protection to over 30 allies and partners, including those in the Western Hemisphere, by ensuring that any nuclear threat against them would trigger a U.S. response.
⚖️ Current U.S. Position in the Hemisphere
Risk reduction diplomacy: The State Department has emphasized nuclear risk reduction in the hemisphere, working with Latin American states to prevent destabilizing deployments.
Nonproliferation commitments: The U.S. continues to support the Treaty of Tlatelolco (1967), which established Latin America and the Caribbean as a nuclear-weapon-free zone.
Response to threats: The Department of Defense maintains that any attempt by adversaries (e.g., Russia) to station nuclear-capable systems in the Americas would be treated as a direct strategic threat, echoing the Cuban Missile Crisis logic.
🚀 Why This Still Matters
Venezuela–Russia ties: With Venezuela openly discussing Russian hypersonic or cruise missile deployments, Washington views such moves as destabilizing and reminiscent of Cold War brinkmanship.
Deterrence posture: U.S. carrier deployments near Venezuela (like the USS Gerald R. Ford) are partly intended to signal that the U.S. will not allow nuclear-capable weapons to be stationed in the region.
Global consistency: The U.S. nuclear doctrine has evolved to address new threats (cyber, hypersonic, space), but the core principle remains unchanged: hostile nuclear strike weapons in the Americas are intolerable.
📌 Takeaway: The U.S. position today is essentially the same as during the Cuban Missile Crisis — nuclear strike–capable weapons deployed by adversaries in the Western Hemisphere are considered unacceptable and would trigger a strong deterrent response. The difference is that this stance is now embedded in broader doctrines of extended deterrence, nonproliferation, and risk reduction diplomacy.
Would you like me to compare the Cuban Missile Crisis “red line” with today’s Nuclear Posture Review side by side in a table? That would show how the language has evolved but the principle has stayed constant.
Show me the geographic position of the Gerald Ford, at the moment.
The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) is currently operating in the Caribbean under U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), having entered the region on November 11, 2025. Its strike group transited the Strait of Gibraltar on November 4 and crossed the Atlantic, joining other U.S. Navy vessels already positioned near Latin America.
🌍 Current Geographic Position
Region: Caribbean Sea, within SOUTHCOM’s area of responsibility.
Recent movement:
November 4 — sailed west through the Strait of Gibraltar into the Atlantic.
November 5 — operated off the western coast of Africa, near Cape Verde.
November 11 — officially entered SOUTHCOM waters, which include the Caribbean, Central America, and South America.
Operational focus: Counter-narcotics missions and deterrence operations near Venezuela.
Strike group composition: USS Gerald R. Ford with Carrier Air Wing Eight (nine squadrons), destroyers USS Bainbridge and USS Mahan, and command ship USS Winston S. Churchill.
📌 Strategic Context
The Ford’s arrival in the Caribbean places it within operational reach of Venezuela, signaling U.S. resolve amid tensions with Caracas.
SOUTHCOM’s area covers 31 countries and the Caribbean Sea, meaning the Ford is now positioned to project power across Latin America.
The deployment is part of a broader U.S. naval buildup, with at least eight other vessels already in the region.
🗺️ Takeaway
The USS Gerald R. Ford is no longer in the Atlantic transit zone — it is now in Caribbean waters under SOUTHCOM, close enough to Venezuela to serve as a direct deterrent. Its exact coordinates are not publicly disclosed for operational security, but its strike group is confirmed to be in the Caribbean theater as of November 11, 2025.
Would you like me to create a map overlay showing the Ford’s recent transit (Mediterranean → Gibraltar → Atlantic → Caribbean) so you can visualize its current position relative to Venezuela?
🗺️ What the Map Shows
Starting point: Croatia (Oct 24, 2025) — where the deployment was announced.
Transit: Through the Strait of Gibraltar (Nov 4) into the Atlantic.
Midpoint: Off Cape Verde, West Africa (Nov 5).
Arrival: Caribbean Sea (Nov 11), now under U.S. Southern Command.
Highlighted: Venezuela, to show proximity to the carrier’s current operating area.
⚖️ Why This Matters
The Ford’s geographic positioning demonstrates how quickly U.S. naval power can shift from Europe to the Americas.
Its current location in the Caribbean places it within operational reach of Venezuela, reinforcing deterrence and signaling U.S. resolve.
The map helps visualize the strategic arc: Mediterranean → Atlantic → Caribbean → Venezuela.
Would you like me to layer in approximate strike range circles (e.g., aircraft radius, missile reach) around the Ford’s Caribbean position? That would make the operational implications even clearer.
🛡️ Strike Range Circles
🟢 800 km — Approximate combat radius of carrier-based F/A-18 fighters without refueling.
🟡 1500 km — Extended reach with aerial refueling, covering much of northern South America.
🔴 2500 km — Approximate range of Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from escort destroyers and cruisers.
🌍 Geographic Context
The Ford is plotted in the Caribbean Sea, with arrows showing its transit from Croatia → Gibraltar → Cape Verde → Caribbean.
Venezuela is highlighted, showing how all three strike ranges overlap its territory.
The circles demonstrate how the carrier group can project power across the Caribbean, northern South America, and parts of Central America.
⚖️ Strategic Implications
Immediate reach: Venezuela lies well within the 800 km fighter radius, meaning carrier aircraft can operate directly over its airspace.
Extended deterrence: With refueling, the Ford’s air wing can cover nearly all of South America’s northern tier.
Long-range strike: Tomahawk missiles extend the group’s reach deep into South America and across the Atlantic approaches.
Would you like me to add U.S. and allied bases in the region (e.g., Puerto Rico, Guantánamo Bay, Curaçao) to the map? That would show how the Ford’s strike ranges overlap with existing fixed installations.
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Copilot provided Python code for map2, in effect, two code versions. I haven't set this up for
myself, but here's the code:
CODE1:
# Creating map of USS Gerald R. Ford transit into Caribbean with strike range circles
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import cartopy.crs as ccrs
import cartopy.feature as cfeature
from cartopy.io.img_tiles import Stamen
from matplotlib.patches import Circle
import os
# Create output directory if it doesn't exist
output_dir = "/mnt/data"
os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True)
# Define map extent [west, east, south, north]
extent = [-80, 20, -10, 50] # Covers Caribbean, Atlantic, and Mediterranean
# Define Ford's current position (approximate in Caribbean)
ford_lat, ford_lon = 15.0, -65.0
# Define Venezuela position for highlight
venezuela_lat, venezuela_lon = 7.0, -66.0
# Define transit path coordinates (simplified)
transit_path = [
(42.6, 18.1), # Croatia
(36.1, -5.3), # Gibraltar
(15.0, -23.5), # Cape Verde
(15.0, -65.0) # Caribbean (current position)
]
# Create map
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 10))
ax = plt.axes(projection=ccrs.PlateCarree())
ax.set_extent(extent, crs=ccrs.PlateCarree())
ax.add_feature(cfeature.LAND, edgecolor='black')
ax.add_feature(cfeature.OCEAN)
ax.add_feature(cfeature.COASTLINE)
ax.add_feature(cfeature.BORDERS, linestyle=':')
ax.add_feature(cfeature.LAKES, alpha=0.5)
ax.add_feature(cfeature.RIVERS)
# Plot transit path with arrows
for i in range(len(transit_path) - 1):
start = transit_path[i]
end = transit_path[i + 1]
ax.annotate('', xy=end, xytext=start,
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle='->', color='blue', lw=2),
transform=ccrs.PlateCarree())
# Plot Ford's current position
ax.plot(ford_lon, ford_lat, marker='*', color='red', markersize=15, label='USS Gerald R. Ford')
# Plot Venezuela
ax.plot(venezuela_lon, venezuela_lat, marker='o', color='orange', markersize=10, label='Venezuela')
# Add strike range circles
for radius_km, color, label in [(800, 'green', 'F/A-18 Combat Radius'),
(1500, 'yellow', 'Extended Aerial Reach'),
(2500, 'red', 'Tomahawk Missile Range')]:
circle = Circle((ford_lon, ford_lat), radius_km / 111, # Convert km to degrees approx
color=color, alpha=0.2, transform=ccrs.PlateCarree(), label=label)
ax.add_patch(circle)
# Add legend and title
plt.legend(loc='lower left')
plt.title("USS Gerald R. Ford Transit Path and Strike Ranges", fontsize=16)
# Save map
map_path = os.path.join(output_dir, "ford_strike_map.png")
plt.savefig(map_path, bbox_inches='tight')
print("Generated map showing USS Gerald R. Ford transit into Caribbean with strike range circles and Venezuela highlighted.")
* * *
CODE2:
# Recreating map using Basemap instead of Cartopy to show USS Gerald R. Ford transit and strike ranges
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from mpl_toolkits.basemap import Basemap
import numpy as np
import os
# Create output directory
output_dir = "/mnt/data"
os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True)
# Define Ford's current position (approximate in Caribbean)
ford_lat, ford_lon = 15.0, -65.0
# Define Venezuela position
venezuela_lat, venezuela_lon = 7.0, -66.0
# Define transit path coordinates (simplified)
transit_path = [
(42.6, 18.1), # Croatia
(36.1, -5.3), # Gibraltar
(15.0, -23.5), # Cape Verde
(15.0, -65.0) # Caribbean (current position)
]
# Create map
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12, 10))
m = Basemap(projection='merc', llcrnrlat=-10, urcrnrlat=50,
llcrnrlon=-80, urcrnrlon=20, resolution='l')
m.drawcoastlines()
m.drawcountries()
m.drawmapboundary(fill_color='lightblue')
m.fillcontinents(color='lightgray', lake_color='lightblue')
m.drawparallels(np.arange(-10, 51, 10), labels=[1,0,0,0])
m.drawmeridians(np.arange(-80, 21, 20), labels=[0,0,0,1])
# Convert coordinates to map projection
x_ford, y_ford = m(ford_lon, ford_lat)
x_ven, y_ven = m(venezuela_lon, venezuela_lat)
# Plot Ford's current position
m.plot(x_ford, y_ford, marker='*', color='red', markersize=15, label='USS Gerald R. Ford')
# Plot Venezuela
m.plot(x_ven, y_ven, marker='o', color='orange', markersize=10, label='Venezuela')
# Plot transit path with arrows
for i in range(len(transit_path) - 1):
lon1, lat1 = transit_path[i]
lon2, lat2 = transit_path[i + 1]
x1, y1 = m(lon1, lat1)
x2, y2 = m(lon2, lat2)
plt.arrow(x1, y1, x2 - x1, y2 - y1, color='blue', width=50000, head_width=200000, length_includes_head=True)
# Add strike range circles
for radius_km, color, label in [(800, 'green', 'F/A-18 Combat Radius'),
(1500, 'yellow', 'Extended Aerial Reach'),
(2500, 'red', 'Tomahawk Missile Range')]:
radius_deg = radius_km * 1000 / 111000 # Convert km to degrees
m.tissot(ford_lon, ford_lat, radius_deg, 100, facecolor=color, alpha=0.2, edgecolor=color, label=label)
# Add legend and title
plt.legend(loc='lower left')
plt.title("USS Gerald R. Ford Transit Path and Strike Ranges", fontsize=16)
# Save map
map_path = os.path.join(output_dir, "ford_strike_map.png")
plt.savefig(map_path, bbox_inches='tight')
print("Map created: USS Gerald R. Ford transit into Caribbean with strike range circles and Venezuela highlighted.")
* * *
Installed cartopy on my computer with pip and ran the first code version. (In point of fact, I downloaded
cartopy and installed with pip once my Antivirus told me the files looked safe). One needs to make
sure there is a plt.show() statement at the end:
Basemap is part of matplotlib and older than cartopy. Not much used...
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