Today is the day the UN is meant to convene to discuss events in Venezuela:
As well, Nicolas Maduro and his spouse will be appearing in court in New York
to enter a plea on the charges agains them. These were made public Saturday (in French):
La Presse on current crisis conditions in the country (in French):
* * *
From my interactions with Copilot Sunday, this surprising exhange about Cuba:
What about Cuba in all this: I noticed Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying Cuba has been on the problems list for quite a while, as well...
Here’s the clearest picture of Cuba’s role in the Venezuela crisis, grounded directly in the reporting you surfaced — and why figures like Marco Rubio keep pointing to Havana as a central part of the problem.
🇨🇺 Cuba’s Role in Venezuela — and Why It’s Suddenly Under the Spotlight
The search results make three things unmistakably clear:
🧨 1. Cuba is furious about Maduro’s capture
Cuba issued one of the strongest condemnations of the U.S. operation, calling it:
“a criminal act”
“a violation of international law”
“cowardly”
and demanding Maduro’s immediate release.
This is not just rhetoric — Cuba depended heavily on Venezuela.
🛢️ 2. Venezuela was Cuba’s economic lifeline
For decades, Venezuela provided:
the bulk of Cuba’s fuel
major financing
preferential oil shipments
in exchange for:
Cuban doctors
Cuban teachers
Cuban security and intelligence personnel
With Maduro gone, Cuba loses its principal benefactor, and its economy — already in crisis — is now even more fragile.
This is why Cuban President Díaz‑Canel told his people to be ready to “give their blood” to defend Venezuela and the Cuban revolution.
⚠️ 3. U.S. officials are openly warning Cuba
Marco Rubio and the Trump administration have made it clear that Havana is now in the crosshairs.
Rubio said Cuba “should be concerned” after losing its closest ally in Venezuela, and later added that he believes Cuba is “in a lot of trouble”NBC News.
Trump himself warned that Cuba could be the next target after the Venezuela operation.
This is why you’re seeing so much talk about Cuba being “on the problems list.”
🧩 4. Why Cuba matters so much in Venezuela
Cuba wasn’t just an ally — it was embedded inside the Venezuelan state.
For years:
Cuban intelligence helped protect Maduro
Cuban advisors trained Venezuelan security forces
Cuban doctors and teachers were part of social programs
Cuban political strategy shaped the PSUV’s survival tactics
To Washington, this made Cuba a force multiplier for Maduro’s regime.
To Havana, Venezuela was a lifeline.
🌍 5. Now that Maduro is gone, Cuba is exposed
The reporting shows:
Cuba’s economy is “wobbling”
It has lost its main source of fuel and financing
It is diplomatically isolated
The U.S. is signaling possible action
Cuba’s leadership knows this — which is why their reaction has been so intense.
🧠 Bottom Line
Cuba wasn’t just a bystander in Venezuela. It was:
a beneficiary
an advisor
an embedded intelligence partner
and a political ally
Now that Maduro has been removed, Cuba is:
economically vulnerable
diplomatically exposed
and facing explicit warnings from the U.S.
Rubio’s comments reflect a long‑standing U.S. view:
Cuba helped sustain Maduro — and now may face consequences for it.
If you want, we can dig into:
How deeply Cuban intelligence penetrated Venezuelan institutions
What losing Venezuelan oil means for Cuba’s economy
Whether the U.S. could realistically “target” Cuba next
How Cuba might respond to this new geopolitical pressure
Really!!?
It is a lot to take in, Louise — and your reaction makes total sense.
Cuba’s role in Venezuela is one of those things that sounds like a conspiracy theory until you look at the actual structure of the relationship. Then it becomes: “Oh… wow. This was real the whole time.”
Let me ground this in what we actually know, without exaggeration.
🇨🇺 Why Cuba mattered so much in Venezuela
Cuba wasn’t just a friendly neighbor cheering from the sidelines. For nearly 20 years, it was deeply embedded in the Venezuelan state.
Here’s the part that surprises most people:
🧠 1. Cuban intelligence helped run parts of Venezuela’s security apparatus
This wasn’t secret — it was openly acknowledged by both governments.
Cuban advisors worked inside:
Venezuela’s intelligence service (SEBIN)
The presidential guard
Identification and passport systems
Internal surveillance programs
Why?
Because Cuba had decades of experience running a security state, and Chávez wanted that expertise.
🩺 2. Cuba sent doctors and teachers — Venezuela sent oil
This was the core of the alliance.
Cuba provided tens of thousands of medical personnel
Venezuela provided heavily subsidized oil
For Cuba, this was a lifeline.
For Venezuela, it was a way to build political loyalty in poor neighborhoods.
🛡️ 3. Cuba helped Maduro survive politically
When protests erupted, when the opposition gained momentum, when the military wavered — Cuba provided:
intelligence
crowd‑control strategy
political advice
training for loyalist units
This is why U.S. officials (like Marco Rubio) kept saying:
“Cuba is the spine of the Maduro regime.”
It wasn’t hyperbole.
It was a structural reality.
🇺🇸 Why U.S. officials keep pointing to Cuba
From Washington’s perspective, Cuba wasn’t just an ally of Maduro — it was a force multiplier that made the regime harder to dislodge.
So when Maduro was captured, Cuba reacted with:
outrage
fear
warnings
calls for resistance
Because they know what this means:
their main economic and political partner just disappeared.
And yes — U.S. officials immediately started hinting that Cuba is now exposed.
🧠 So your “Really!!?” is justified
Cuba’s involvement wasn’t a side note.
It was one of the pillars of the entire Venezuelan system.
If you want, we can go deeper into:
how Cuban intelligence operated inside Venezuela
why Cuba depended so heavily on Venezuelan oil
whether Cuba could actually be “next”
how this affects the balance of power in the Caribbean
Just tell me where you want to go.
So could it be next. Logically, yes but realistically??
Let’s take this one step at a time, Louise — because the logic and the real‑world feasibility point in very different directions. And that tension is exactly what you’re sensing.
Below is the clearest, most grounded way to think about whether Cuba could be “next” after the U.S. operation in Venezuela.
🧠 1. Logically? Yes — Cuba is exposed.
From a purely analytical standpoint, Cuba is in a weakened and vulnerable position:
It just lost its main economic lifeline (Venezuelan oil).
Its economy is in deep crisis.
It is diplomatically isolated.
It has been on the U.S. sanctions list for decades.
It played a major role in supporting Maduro’s security apparatus.
So logically, if the U.S. wanted to pressure or destabilize another government in the region, Cuba is the obvious candidate.
This is why you hear U.S. politicians saying things like “Cuba should be concerned” or “Cuba is in trouble.”
But logic is only half the story.
🧭 2. Realistically? It’s far more complicated.
Here’s where the real-world constraints kick in.
🇨🇺 Cuba is not Venezuela
Cuba is:
an island
with no land borders
with a highly centralized security state
with decades of experience resisting U.S. pressure
It’s much harder to reach, harder to infiltrate, and harder to destabilize.
🇺🇸 The U.S. has limited appetite for a second major operation
Even if the U.S. has the capability, it also has:
global commitments
political constraints
economic considerations
diplomatic fallout to manage
Launching another high‑risk operation immediately after Venezuela would be strategically reckless.
🌍 International reaction would be stronger
Even countries that dislike Cuba’s government tend to oppose military action against it.
Latin America, Europe, and even Canada would push back hard.
Venezuela was already isolated.
Cuba still has diplomatic relationships.
🛡️ Cuba’s security apparatus is extremely tight
Unlike Venezuela, Cuba’s internal control system is:
unified
disciplined
deeply embedded
experienced
loyal
There are no large armed factions, no colectivos, no splintered military.
It’s a very different environment.
🔍 3. So what is realistic?
Here’s the most plausible scenario:
✔️ Increased U.S. pressure
Sanctions, diplomatic isolation, intelligence operations, and economic leverage.
✔️ Targeted actions against Cuban intelligence networks abroad
Especially those linked to Venezuela.
✔️ Support for dissident groups
But quietly, not overtly.
✔️ Regional pressure
The U.S. may encourage Latin American governments to distance themselves from Havana.
❌ But not a military operation
That’s the least realistic option.
🧠 Bottom line
Your instinct is right:
Cuba is logically the next vulnerable point in the chain.
But realistically, the U.S. is far more likely to apply pressure, not force.
Cuba is:
harder to reach
harder to destabilize
more diplomatically sensitive
more internally controlled
So yes — Cuba is exposed.
But no — it’s not likely to be “next” in the same way Venezuela was.
If you want, we can explore:
What losing Venezuelan oil means for Cuba’s economy
How Cuba might respond to increased U.S. pressure
Whether Cuba’s government is stable or brittle
How this affects the Caribbean balance of power
Just tell me which angle you want to dig into.
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