DEAL💖

source: Le Nouvel Observateur/ AFP

Posted on December 23, 2020 at 4:50 p.m. 

translation: GoogleTranslate/doxa-louise

Brexit: a trade agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom soon validated

Effective from January 1, the agreement should be concluded this evening.

A post-Brexit trade deal is believed to be imminent between the UK and the EU.  (DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS / AFP)

After ten months of tense and laborious negotiations , the European Union and the United Kingdom seemed, this Wednesday, December 23, close to an agreement on their future trade relationship, which would allow them to avoid in extremis a "no deal"  only eight days from the final break.

"We are in the final phase , " said a European source. A second source evoked "great chances" of concluding an agreement this evening.

The negotiations have since Monday been in the hands of the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson , who have been increasing exchanges in the hope of wresting an agreement, according to European sources.

Process launched

The access of European fishermen to British waters remained on Wednesday morning the ultimate sticking point of the discussions, otherwise almost complete, including on previously problematic subjects, such as how to settle disputes and measures to protect against any unfair competition

An agreement on Wednesday 23 or Thursday 24 December would in theory leave enough time for it to enter into force on 1 January, when the United Kingdom, which officially left the EU on 31 January, will have definitively abandoned the single market. 

Member states also began Wednesday afternoon to launch the process in "informal discussions" , said European sources.

Without an agreement, trade between the EU and London would be carried out according to the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), synonymous with customs duties, quotas, as well as administrative formalities that could lead to massive traffic jams and  delays in delivery.

A particularly delicate scenario for the United Kingdom, already battered by a more virulent variant of the coronavirus which isolated it from the rest of the world.

Despite its low economic weight, fishing is of political and social importance for several Member States, including France, the Netherlands, Denmark and Ireland. But the United Kingdom made it the symbol of its regained sovereignty after the divorce.

Disagreements over fishing

Negotiations focus on sharing the  650 million euros of products caught each year by the EU in British waters and the length of the adjustment period for European fishermen.

The EU this week rejected an offer it deemed unacceptable from London, asking it to give up 35% of non-pelagic zone species (caught on the high seas), but 60% of its catch including pelagic zone species, all on a 3-year transition period.

Brussels had proposed a few days earlier to give up about 25% of these 650 million after a period of six years.

"The ball is in Boris Johnson's court , " said a European diplomat, for whom the EU's proposal can only be a "final offer" given the concerns  already raised by some member states , especially Denmark.

"Either a breakthrough is made on Wednesday with a British movement, or the negotiations get shifted to next week, after the holidays,"he added.

A feat

Eu negotiator Michel Barnier told member states on Tuesday (December 22nd) that the EU was ready to negotiate "until the end of the year and beyond" if the blockade on fisheries persisted. The aim is to guard against being pressured by the calendar, even if it means accepting the shock of a "no deal" on 1 January.

The conclusion of a text in just ten months would be an achievement for negotiators,especially for an agreement of this magnitude, since such trade talks usually take years.

The task was further complicated by the Covid-19, which forced negotiators to confer for several weeks via videoconference and sometimes even to suspend discussions because of positive cases in the negotiating teams.

If an agreement is confirmed, the EU would offer its former member state unprecedented tariff-free and quota-free access to its huge market of 450 million consumers, a first.