source: Le Monde
author: Cécile Ducourtieux
translation: doxa-louise
Brexit: the European Union prepares for the worst case scenario
The Commission published this Thursday its plan for Great Britain leaving the EU
without a deal. Both parties are facing a March 2019 deadline.
Proof that things are getting serious: Thursday July 19, the European Commission
published a document meant for the twenty-seven member states to explain to them
what to do in the case of an absence of agreement on the divorce conditions with London,
expected to come into force at the latest March 29 2019.
There are only eight months left to finalize a divorce treaty, but given the political
chaos in London, where the Prime Minister Theresa May, had the greatest difficulty
imposing on her own party her latest vision of Brexit, fears of no deal have gone up
dramatically in Brussels the last few days. ‘Preparations for a no deal must be put in
place immediately, at all levels, and take into account all scenarios’, explains the
Commission in its document.
‘We are working day and night to reach agreement, but economic actors and member
States must be ready for all possible outcomes’, further explained Mina Andreeva,
Commission spokesperson, Thursday. It is not the institution that initiated the document
but the twenty-seven themselves: they explicitly requested that this be worked on at the
last meeting of the European Council, June 29.
Multiple and Fearsome Consequences
All the while, insisting on this document on the day when the chief negotiator
for Europe, Michel Barnier, meets his new British peer, Dominic Raab, does seem
to be a way for the communitarian institution to force the British government to
become conscious that the catastrophe scenario risks becoming reality if it does not arrive
at a clear vision of its version of the divorce.
In the absence of an accord on divorce terms, explains the Commission in its
communication, the transition period requested by Britain to fine-tune its ‘future relation’
with the European Union, meant to begin on Brexit D-Day, March 30 2019, and end
December 31 2020, is nul and void. As of March 30 2019, Great Britain will be
considered a State outside of the EU.
The consequences are multiple and fearsome. European and British expatriates? No
particular arrangement will apply to them the day after Brexit: Europeans living in
Great Britain will have no guarantees on right of residence, same thing for the British
living within member States.
The latter will need to ‘re-introduce border controls for the flux of goods and persons
coming or going to Great Britain‘(border controls but also phytosanitary, and sanitary ones),
points out the document out of Brussels. Economic actors will need to take into account
that these controls will ‘severely impact transports’, ‘create significant delays’ and
‘difficulties in ports’.
Warning small and medium-sized enterprises
If major actors are already gearing up for this, for example in the financial sector, the
Commission wants to work particularly with small and medium-sizes businesses. ‘A
number of these have no experience in dealing with outside countries, because they only
do business within the common market.’ But these players will have to, once Great Britain
is out, ‘deal with procedures (customs declarations), with which they have absolutely
no experience but which become necessary in dealing with foreign countries’.
If the Commission has already hired tens of experts for a no deal, the burden of preparation
costs lies with the States. It is up to them, as well, to diconnect Britain from their various
data banks, on Brexit D-Day...some have already started. Ireland in particular, probably
the State most affected by a future Brexit with half of its agricultural production going to GreatBritain. Dublin has put up a Web site (prepareforBrexit) for small and medium-sized
businesses, helping them evaluate the impact of Brexit on their activities. A System of
loans of up to 5 000 euros is also in place to help them prepare.
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