Friday, July 20, 2018

Trade War

The Banque de France - France's National Bank - just put out a study to the
effect that a trade war would cost the world GNP 1% of its value in two years.
In terms of volume of trade, the  cost would be 3%.

https://www.msn.com/fr-ca/finances/economie/une-guerre-commerciale-pourrait-amputer-de-3percent-le-pib-mondial-selon-la-banque-de-france/ar-AAAjyDE?ocid=spartandhp

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The Center for Automotive Research has published to the effect that tariffs on imported cars and
car parts would slow down sales, and cost jobs to the US.


https://www.msn.com/fr-ca/finances/economie/les-tarifs-automobiles-de-trump-seraient-n%C3%A9fastes/ar-AAAjLbf?ocid=spartandhp


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I was asked what this GNP by volume business was.  Here is the formula:

PIB en volume = PIB en valeur / Indice des prix

In periods of high inflation, GDP may be going up simply because the price
of things is going up, not because there is more being produces. To counter
this misperception, one can divide one's GNP number by the consumer
price index factor for the period. Voilà the true change in quantity!!

http://www.davidmourey.com/article-36399485.html

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