Tuesday, February 4, 2025

All Told

                                                              





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COPILOT:

The underground or illicit economy can be challenging to measure accurately due to its hidden nature. However, estimates suggest that illicit activities represent 6.4% to 12% of the U.S. GDP. This includes activities such as drug trafficking, illegal gambling, and unreported work.

For Canada, specific estimates are less readily available, but it's generally believed that the underground economy is smaller than in the U.S., likely falling within the range of 3% to 5% of GDP.

Would you like more detailed information on any specific illicit activities or their impact on these economies?

What percentage of GDP does the undergroung economy represent in Mexico?

The underground economy in Mexico is quite significant. According to data from Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), the shadow economy accounted for 25% of Mexico's GDP in 2012. This means that a quarter of the country's economic activity was not reported to the government and did not contribute to tax revenues.

Would you like to know more about the factors driving this underground economy or its impact on Mexico's overall economic health?

MERLIN:

Could you summarize the following for me: The Threat Of Mexico's Massive Underground Economy | Small Wars Journal by Arizona State University

"The Threat of Mexico's Massive Underground Economy" from Small Wars Journal by Arizona State University discusses the complexities and implications of Mexico's extensive informal economy, which includes illegal activities and unregulated businesses. The article argues that this underground economy poses significant threats to both Mexico and the United States, affecting areas such as security, governance, and economic stability.


Key points include:


1. **Scope of the Underground Economy**: The size of Mexico's informal economy is substantial, encompassing various illegal enterprises like drug trafficking, human smuggling, and money laundering, as well as unregistered businesses that operate outside governmental regulation.


2. **Impact on Security**: The proliferation of illegal activities contributes to violence and instability, fostering a dangerous environment for citizens and complicating law enforcement efforts. It also propels organized crime groups, which can have cross-border implications.


3. **Governance Challenges**: The existence of the underground economy undermines the effectiveness of legal institutions and reduces tax revenues, which in turn hampers the government's ability to provide public services and maintain order.


4. **Economic Consequences**: This informal economy distorts competition, as legitimate businesses struggle to compete with unregulated operations. This can result in lost jobs and economic growth that is uneven and concentrated in informal sectors.


5. **Regional Implications**: The article emphasizes that Mexican economic challenges have ramifications in the United States, especially regarding immigration patterns and border security, necessitating a coordinated response from both countries.


Overall, the article stresses that addressing the challenges posed by Mexico's underground economy requires a multifaceted approach that includes both immediate law enforcement measures and long-term economic strategies aimed at formalizing the economy and promoting legitimate opportunities. 

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