Wednesday, February 12, 2025

Scenario

 It is one thing to view the Presidency as the ultimate repository

of power and responsibility in the US executive; it is quite another

to let the actual President make all the calls. The first might be likened

to constitutional monarchy. The second is a Facist dictatorship.


No, I am not saying President Trump has lost his marbles, but give

it time. He will. Because bureaucracy, for all its evils, does a lot of

the heavy lifting, sorting, prioritizing that no one person can handle.

Bureaucracy rationlizes.


In the hopes of reviving an exhausted metals sector in the US, it appears

reasonable to apply tariffs ro imports of steel and aluminium. Big tariffs,

25%, and not just little adjustments. Send a message that we are in control, at

the same time. 


But those metals are actually needed at the pace they were initially ordered.

For cars, for this, for that. From the point of view of the buyer within the US, 

wouldn't it make sense to find a cheaper supplier. Of course it would...what about

China!?


Actually, makes perfect sense: we knock out the competition. we still get out product

at the cost we budgeted for.


Oh but wait... We need those metals to produce planes and arms. How ironic! planes and

arms that could be used to discipline China. So China helps build the arms that oppose it!!!


So where is the error in our little scenario. The error is in the shifting narrator, who wears

different hats in no particular order: Economist, Businessmsn, Leader. A well-designed 

organization parcels out .different concerns to steps in a decision-making hierarchy. The

alternative is unpredictable... and quickly dangerous!!


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