Wanted to get to the bottom of the loose skin problem...
https://copilot.cloud.microsoft/chat/share/eyJzaGFyZUlkIjoiMGQzOWZhYzUtZDA3Yi00M2YzLTlkYTktZTA5NThmOTBlNzJmIiwiY29udmVyc2F0aW9uSWQiOiIzMzNkYWRjNS0yOGRiLTQ0ZDEtOGYwYy1lMWQ5ZDc4ZTVlMDkifQ%3D%3D
Friday, November 13, 2026
Thursday, November 12, 2026
R_Weather
Copilot:
Upcoming weather; yesterday we were told there was a NorEaster to form on the Atalantic Coast tonight but that we wouldn't be affected in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu. In effect, there was no projected rain for days. This morning, a few hours of rain Saturday. Let's be realistic:
I think your skepticism is justified.
Looking at the radar image you attached, the precipitation shield is much farther west and north than a "classic coastal Nor'easter" confined to New England. The rain extends from Pennsylvania across New York State and into southern New England. Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu sits only a short distance north of the Vermont border, right on the northern fringe of where these systems often wobble.
A few observations:
Yesterday's forecast likely reflected the official model track, which kept the heavier moisture south and east of southern Québec.
Overnight, the models appear to have shifted the northern edge of the precipitation shield slightly northward.
When you're near the edge of a storm, a shift of only 50 to 100 km can change the forecast from "dry" to "a few hours of rain."
The image does not suggest a major soaking for the Montréal-St-Jean area. It suggests that the northern edge of the system is close enough that some rain bands could brush southern Québec.
The yellow marker on the map appears to be near the Ottawa-Montréal corridor. Notice how the main precipitation is still well south, over New York and New England. That tells me:
A washout in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu is unlikely.
Some light rain or intermittent rain on Saturday is plausible.
Forecast confidence is lower than when a storm track is either clearly south or clearly north of us.
This is actually a good example of why forecasts several days out can change suddenly. Meteorologists were probably correct that the Nor'easter itself would stay offshore, but the outer moisture shield often reaches much farther inland than the storm centre.
My "realistic" take: if I lived in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu and had outdoor plans Saturday, I would not cancel them. I would, however, keep rain gear handy because a few hours of light rain now seem entirely possible based on the position of the precipitation shield in your image.
The interesting thing to watch over the next 24 hours is not the storm centre but whether the northern edge of the green rain band advances toward Burlington and the Richelieu Valley. If it does, your rain chances will increase noticeably; if it stalls where it is now, much of southern Québec could remain largely dry.
During the last NorEaster, we were initially told no rain and a few days in we were drenched!!
And that's exactly why many people become frustrated with forecasts near the edge of a major storm.
What often happens is that the meteorologists are correctly forecasting the centre of the Nor'easter, but for Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu the important question isn't "Where is the storm centre?" It's "Where will the northern edge of the precipitation shield end up?"
When you're sitting right on that boundary:
A 50 km northward shift can turn "no rain" into several hours of steady rain.
A 100 km shift can turn "a few millimetres" into a soaking event.
Those shifts are often not resolved until 24-48 hours before the event.
Looking at your radar image, I notice that the rain shield already extends much farther inland than many people associate with a coastal storm. There is precipitation across large parts of New York State, and the northern edge is not terribly far from southern Québec.
My rule of thumb for Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu is this:
If the forecast says "0 mm" and a large Nor'easter is passing New England, I don't fully trust the dry forecast.
If we're within about 150-200 km of the projected rain shield, I assume at least some risk of rain.
If forecasts start introducing even a few hours of rain after previously showing none, that often means the models are trending wetter, not drier.
Does that guarantee a repeat of the last event? No.
But when I see a forecast evolve from:
"No effect on southern Québec"
to
"A few hours of rain Saturday"
I interpret that as a sign that forecasters are becoming less confident about keeping us completely dry.
The good news is that your image does not currently look like the setup for an all-day deluge over the Montréal-Richelieu Valley. The main moisture plume still appears south of the border. The question is whether that northern edge creeps another 50-100 km north over the next day or so.
Frankly, after the last Nor'easter experience, I would plan for "possibly damp" rather than "definitely dry." In southern Québec, being on the northern fringe of these Atlantic systems is often where forecast surprises occur.
A NorEaster, in my understanding, is a storm that intensifies in the Atlantic and circles back in as a beast!!
That's a common perception, and there's some truth to it, but the meteorological definition is a bit different.
A Nor'easter is essentially a strong low-pressure system along the U.S. East Coast, usually drawing moisture from the Atlantic. The name comes from the northeast winds ("nor'east winds") that often batter the coast in places like Boston, Cape Cod, and Nova Scotia.
What you're describing is one of the more dramatic versions:
A disturbance forms along the coast.
It moves into the Atlantic.
It rapidly intensifies over the warm ocean waters.
The circulation grows so large that precipitation spirals back inland over New England and sometimes southern Québec.
When that happens, it can seem as though the storm has "gone out to sea and come back."
The key point is that a Nor'easter is not just a point on a weather map. It can have a precipitation shield several hundred kilometres wide. That's why Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu can get drenched even when the storm centre is southeast of Cape Cod.
In fact, the really nasty surprises for southern Québec often occur when forecasters focus on the storm track. Residents hear:
"The storm will stay over the Atlantic."
Technically true.
But the moisture field and deformation bands can extend far inland. Then 24 hours later the forecast changes from 0 mm to 10 mm, then to 20 mm, and suddenly everyone's umbrellas are out.
Looking at the image you posted, what catches my eye is not the offshore Atlantic part but the broad band of precipitation already stretching across Pennsylvania, New York State, and New England. That tells me the system is not a compact coastal storm. It has a large inland reach.
For Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, I would watch Burlington, Vermont more than the storm centre. If Burlington starts getting forecast rain from the northern edge of the system, we're usually next in line. If Burlington stays dry, then the Richelieu Valley often escapes as well.
Your experience from the last Nor'easter is a good reminder: when a forecast changes from "no rain at all" to "a few hours of rain," it can mean the models are beginning to recognize a northward expansion of the precipitation shield. Sometimes that expansion stops. Sometimes it keeps going and we get the soaking that wasn't expected a few days earlier.
Here are projections for the Wind today, Friday and Saturday. What is at work here...
This sequence is actually very interesting, Louise.
If I ignore the forecasts and look only at the wind field shown in your three images, I see something that would make me cautious about assuming Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu stays completely dry.
Thursday
In the first image, there is a strong circulation centred well east of Newfoundland. The strongest winds (yellow) are over the Atlantic and Gulf of St. Lawrence. Southern Québec is under light winds.
This suggests:
The developing low is still relatively far away.
The pressure gradient over southern Québec is weak.
No major direct influence on the Richelieu Valley yet.
Friday
The second image is the most revealing.
Notice the broad stream of Atlantic winds running southwest to northeast offshore, while over New England and southern Québec the wind turns more easterly and northeasterly.
That tells me:
The low has intensified.
Its circulation has expanded.
Moist air is being drawn inland toward New England.
Even though Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu only shows about 9 km/h locally, what matters is the large-scale flow. The atmosphere is beginning to connect the Atlantic moisture source with the northeastern U.S.
Saturday
By Saturday the circulation centre appears farther east, near Newfoundland.
Meanwhile:
Winds in southern Québec remain fairly light.
The strongest winds have shifted eastward.
The storm is beginning to pull away.
That is typically the pattern of a storm that is past its closest approach.
What concerns me
The interesting feature isn't the wind directly over Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu.
It's the counter-clockwise circulation around the Atlantic low.
In the Northern Hemisphere:
Air flows counter-clockwise around a low.
The western side of the circulation tends to feed moisture northward.
The northern edge of the precipitation shield is often where forecasts struggle most.
Your wind maps suggest the storm is indeed staying offshore. But they also show a large circulation occupying much of the Northwest Atlantic.
That is exactly the type of setup where:
Boston gets heavy rain,
Vermont gets light rain,
Southern Québec sits right on the dividing line.
Compared with the last Nor'easter
The last event you mentioned, where forecasts became dramatically wetter, likely involved one of two things:
The low tracked a little farther west than expected.
The precipitation shield expanded farther northwest than models initially projected.
Looking at these wind maps alone, I do not see evidence of a major westward track toward Montréal.
What I do see is a storm large enough that its moisture shield could easily brush southern Québec if the rain field expands modestly northward.
My meteorological "gut feeling" from these graphics is:
A classic washout in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu looks unlikely.
Completely dry weather is not something I would confidently bet on.
A period of light rain Saturday is entirely consistent with the wind evolution shown.
If forecasts continue trending wetter over the next 24 hours, I would take that trend seriously because the storm's circulation is certainly large enough to support it.
One thing I've learned from looking at many storms affecting the Richelieu Valley: the wind field often tells you whether a storm is powerful, but the rain depends on where the moisture shield sets up. Your images show a sizeable Atlantic circulation. The remaining question is simply whether that moisture shield stops near Vermont or extends another 100 km north into southern Québec. That is often the difference between "dry forecast" and "why am I getting soaked?" 🙂
So what are my chances for the Sunshine days projected by Environment Canada for next week? (For Saturday, Meteo media agrees about rain Saturday...)
Louise, if I compare the two forecasts you've shown rather than trying to predict the weather from scratch, I'd say the outlook for Monday through Wednesday looks fairly encouraging.
What stands out is that:
MétéoMédia shows:
Sunday: mostly cloudy
Monday: some sunshine
No significant precipitation after Sunday
Environment Canada shows:
Sunday: cloudy
Monday: sunny
Tuesday: sunny
Wednesday: sunny
When two independent forecast systems agree on:
rain Saturday,
improvement Sunday,
sunshine Monday onward,
that generally increases confidence.
The key transition appears to be Sunday. That's the day when the departing Atlantic system is still influencing cloud cover, but rainfall amounts are tiny in both forecasts:
MétéoMédia: less than 1 mm.
Environment Canada: simply "Cloudy."
That suggests lingering low cloud rather than an active storm.
Looking back at the wind maps you posted earlier, by Saturday the circulation is already pulling eastward toward the Atlantic provinces. Once that happens, southern Québec often finds itself under:
lighter winds,
drier continental air from Ontario,
increasing sunshine.
That's exactly the sort of setup that produces a forecast like Environment Canada's "Sunny, Sunny, Sunny" Monday through Wednesday.
My confidence level
Saturday rain: High confidence (both forecasters agree).
Sunday cloudy: Quite likely.
Monday sunny: Fairly good confidence.
Tuesday-Wednesday sunny: Reasonably good confidence, but still 5-6 days away, so cloudier conditions could easily creep in.
If I were planning outdoor activities in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu next week, I would currently assign roughly:
Saturday: poor outdoor day.
Sunday: usable but grey.
Monday: good chance of sunshine.
Tuesday: good chance of sunshine.
Wednesday: good chance of sunshine and perhaps the nicest day of the group, with the forecast high reaching about 9°C.
So, despite your concern about the Nor'easter creeping farther north than initially expected, the forecast pattern after the weekend does not resemble a stalled wet regime. It looks more like a storm passing offshore, followed by a return to quieter weather and several brighter days across southern Québec. The biggest uncertainty now is not Monday-Wednesday; it's exactly how much cloud and rain make it into the Richelieu Valley on Saturday and whether some leftover cloud lingers into Sunday.
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Results
I spent quite a bit of time last week trying to produce a sphere with a
point on it on Geogebra. I wanted the point to move with the sphere. Went
back to Desmos, with which I had graphing experience. Threw my pride
to the wind and asked Gemini to show me how to do this. With a little help
from Copilot, who told me to instantiate the sphere on the last line, got what
I wanted. Generative AI is the cat's meow...
In effect, Gemini told me what my mistake was on Geogebra: I was using the sphere
tool rather defining the sphere I wanted!!
* * *
Below, upping the apparent size of the sphere with the + button:
* * *
Meta Ai:
How does Desmos actually render 3D objects like this sphere?
Desmos primarily focuses on 2D graphing, but it can represent 3D objects using some clever techniques. Here’s how Desmos typically renders 3D objects like your sphere:
2D Projections:
Desmos uses mathematical projections to show a 3D shape on a 2D screen. For a sphere, it calculates the 2D "shadow" or outline that a 3D object would cast from a certain viewpoint, similar to how a camera takes a picture of it.
Parameterized Surfaces or Slices:
Instead of rendering a full 3D solid, Desmos often plots many 2D curves or slices that approximate the 3D shape. For a sphere, you might see various circles corresponding to different cross-sections of the sphere at different heights (zz-values).
Shading and Color:
To give the illusion of depth, Desmos may use shading or color gradients on these curves or regions to imply which parts are closer or further away based on light source assumptions.
Web Technology (WebGL or SVG):
Under the hood, Desmos uses modern web graphics technologies like SVG (Scalable Vector Graphics) or WebGL. These allow it to draw smooth curves and shapes dynamically and interactively, although full 3D rendering (like rotating objects freely) is limited compared to dedicated 3D software.
In short, Desmos creates convincing 3D visuals through 2D projections and careful plotting of curves rather than real 3D modeling. This approach balances visual clarity and interactive speed in the browser.
If you want true 3D rendering with rotation and lighting, software like GeoGebra 3D or specialized 3D tools would be better suited.
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Smiley
It's a tough climb; trying to learn how-to Funny Face with
algebra. Below, an exercise. I cannot lie, needed Gemini to help
with the smile equation. The head and eye I did myself, and added
sliders for fun.
* * *
* * *
One can go trough this sequence one at a time, to see what does what.
To make something invisible, press and hold its color dot! Pressing
plus or minus on the right-hand side zooms in or out without the chaos
of moving the mouse wheel...
I asked for radians from the wrench settings.
but there is no rffrcton my original:
Monday, November 9, 2026
Sunday, November 8, 2026
Pepperoni
Bought a frozen cheese pizza the other day - a premium brand - and some
red pepper and pepperoni so that one could experiment with how one wanted
things to taste. Haven't touched the pizza yet, but I did let myself be tempted
by the pepperoni. Made a sandwich with it.
Turned out truly delicious. Surprised myself!!
Remembrance
Copilot:
When is Remembrance Day 2026?
Remembrance Day 2026 in Canada is on Wednesday, 11 November 2026. It is observed every year on 11 November, commemorating the armistice that ended fighting in the First World War and honouring those who have served in the armed forces.
Traditionally, a two-minute silence is observed at 11:00 a.m., marking the "eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month."
Since you're in Québec, note that Remembrance Day is not a statutory holiday for most provincial workers in Québec, although many ceremonies are held throughout the province.
In 2026, from today (8 November 2026), Remembrance Day is 3 days away. 🇨🇦🌺
Remembrance day is this week. Sad to say, there is still war in Eurasia!
Thought I'd share some info that has come through my Facebook feed:
Peace is the business of women. Below, a heartening effort by Melania T.
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