Migration

 We have all seen these: videos of empty Chinese highrises and

ghost cities. China has been overbuilding to house its impressive population.

And now claims that there are some 100+ million people missing with

respect to population projections. Still, whether 1.4 or 1.3 billion is a lot

of people. But from a public policy perspective, things like the dependency

ratio (the number of inactives to the number of workers) make a big

difference. So, indeed, there are now gaps in the age distribution.

In the latter 20th century, there were concerns that the level of world population

needed to be stabilized and the UN counselled all countries to make policy adjustments 

for that. The aim should be replacement fertility, with every woman giving birth to 2.1

children in her lifetime. In Canada, there is a stable 20% of the population that chooses 

not to reproduce. It was decided that women in families might try for 3...

Looking at numbers today, the developed world is lagging in its reproductive goals.

Canada is pretty well stuck at 1.2 children per woman. The rest might come from

immigration. China is now lowest of the low, at 1 child per woman. And there are no

signs of picking up. And no immigration. Current projections see China's population

going down to 400 million by the year 2100. Pretty much where one expects the US

population to be. A totally dramatic change!!

So what about those empty high rises. China was totally unforgiving in its approach,

instituting a 1 child per family policy from the 1980's. And keeping it going for

three decades. They missed turn when the population reached replacement ten years

in. Of late, they have moved to allowing two and even three children but it is all of no

avail; the numbers are not moving. And what was unforeseen is that, during those

rigid one child per family years, people would choose to make that child male. So

effectively, there is a compound problem of missing women. 

Voilà, urban planning got out of synch with demographic reality!!!

                       

                                                                    

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Demography is female-centered: we are concerned with the replacement of the population

through births. The developed world currently sees 105 male births for 100 female birth.

There is nothing sacrosanct about this, but it is taken into consideration in establishing

replacement fertility. According to DeepSeek, the birth ratio is 109 males for 100 females

in China. Migration in the sense of immigration and emigration are not considered, although

certain countries might be interested in reproductive behaviors of their population when

their nationals live in different parts of the world. For example, France!!

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