Looking at the Midterms

source: Le Figaro, 7/11/2018

author: Alexis Feertchak

translation: doxa-louise

Midterms: Americans asked to choose

Why the midterms won’t change much to the politics of donald Trump

INTERVIEW - Torn between Republicans and Democrats, the Congress risks being 

paralysed, but President Trump will nonetheless pursue his policies, believes Vincent 

Michelot, professeur des universités  and specialist in the United States. Which won’t 

stop Democrats from working against the White House, according to the former director 

of Sciences Po Lyons.

LE FIGARO - the democrats win the house of Representatives, but the Republicans 

come out stronger in the Senate. Is this a blue Wave?

Vincent MICHELOT - Obviously the Democrats would have preferred a larger majority. 

But, in practice, a majority of 20 or 40 in the House of Representatives makes little 

difference given that the Democrats are the Opposition party. Progress has nonetheless 

been made in certain States, such as the very conservative Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania which are part of this industrial configuration, the Rust Belt,

which made a Trump victory possible in 2016. The Democratic party is thus capable 

of staging a comeback. Yet, for the post of Governor, it looses the two most sought-after -

Ohio and florida -, which shows how the Republicans are equally resilient.

Donald Trump even mentioned an ‘enormous victory tonight’. What do you think of this 

view of the matter?

One has to see the difference between verbalizations and reality. He had announced that 

if he kept the Senate, this would be a victory. He is thus being faithful to his

announcement. There is a well-known saying from President Kennedy which corresponds 

perfectly to the situation: ‘Victory has a hundred fathers and defeat

is an orphan’. Donald Trump believes that the defeat of  Republicans in the House of 

Representatives is not his since his name was not on the voting ballot. He does want 

credit for victory in the Senate, even though his name did not appear there either, as 

the American President campaigned very intensely for his candidates.

Will the new Congress have an impact of the domestic policies of donald Trump?

It won’t change much. Other than a grand law on lowering taxes, Donald Trump has no 

extensive legislative text on his score card. Any transformation of American society he 

might have accomplished was done through presidential decrees, the executive orders.

Donald Trump has little time for Congress, and thinks everything should be done through the executive function. Any great change will not be to Trump the ‘chief legislator’, but 

Democrats will be able to work against him because they will be able to set up investigative enquiries. Congress not only votes laws, but exercises control over execution. With 

their investigative commissions, Democrats will be able to submit President Trump to 

a form of Chinese torture: particularly with the Russian affair, they will be able to call 

witnesses, demand that the Administration produce documents, etc. The White House 

will be under a form of permanent investigation.

Is this so unheard of?

The political climate has been odd since the election of Donald Trump, but, widely 

speaking, American electors are free to order a periodic re-balancing of power. We 

are moving today from a unified government to a form of American co-habitation, 

which occurs quite frequently. This illustrates the sharing of power that is referred to 

as ‘checks and balances’ in the United States, but which one finds in all constitutional 

democracies.

Can the new Congress start impeachment procedures?

For some time in the United states, talking about impeachment, people are using the 

expression ‘the i-word’, thus referring to a taboo subject. Democrats are well aware 

of the dangers of starting such a procedure. Donald Trump has warmly encouraged 

them here because it would call up his electoral base.

To successfully impeach someone, there are two stages. One first needs a simple majority 

of the House of Representatives to approve the order of accusations. Then a majority 

of two thirds of the Senate needs to vote following a trial on the destitution of the 

President. Given the increased strength of the Republicans in the Senate, there is no 

chance for such an outcome.

With respect to nominations, does donald Trump emerge stronger from these 
midterms?

All federal magistrates, including judges to the Supreme Court, are appointed for life 

by the President ‘on the advice and consent’ of the Senate. As a result, some people

may well fall into some form of morbid analysis of the state of health of older judges, 

in particular on the Supreme Court. Beyond such speculation, there will certainly be

new nominations to be had. There should also be a new cabinet, with some new 

Ministers. There again, approval by the Senate is needed.

What about Foreign Policy?

Here, lets be perfectly clear: there won’t be any changes. A 1936 judgment of the 

Supreme Court confirms it, the President of the United States has ‘full powers’ on 

the matter. The Congress can certainly put limits on the budget for military operations 

and certain commercial treaties, but with a twist that plays in President Trump’s favor: 

both chambers of Congress have equal authority, except for Foreign Affairs where the 

Senate overrides the House of Representatives. The constitution gives the former the 

power to ratify treaties and control the naming of ambassadors by the same ‘advice 

and consent’ clause. There are refinements: certain treaties, such as NAFTA ( now the

United States-Mexico-Canada free-trade agreement, a commercial treaty between the 

countries of North America), are ratified through a more complex procedure involving 

both Houses. But without going into detail, Congress will have no impact on Foreign 

Policy.

Thus, no impending changes on the American policy of sanctions on Iran?

Donald Trump can play schoolyard winner, ‘Not scared of you’. Be it on Iran, North 

Korea or Russia, the House of representatives won’t have a word to say.

Will the results of these midterms have an impact on the next Presidential election 

in 2020?

there are different ways one can see the next two years playing out. The first consists 

in saying that cohabitation will lead to institutional paralysis in Congress, form which 

nothing will emerge. a miracle if they even agree on a budget... In principle, this is 

neither good for the Democrats who don’t want to appear to be the obstructionist 

party, not for the Republicans who don’t want to emerge with nothing to show for 

their time in power.

And the other way of seeing things go?

Donald Trump has no real ideological reference points and prefers to bargain. What 

he wants are ‘wins’. If to that end he needs to negotiate with Democrats, he will do 

it wholeheartedly. For the other side, it would a good thing to get some concessions 

with respect to infrastructure or health, for example. There are domains where the two 

grand parties can agree on legislation.

But is there not a polarization to the Left of the Democratic party and the Right of the 

Republican?

That’s the problem. The Democratic party is not unified. For these midterms, certain 

candidates very much to the Left - sometimes more so than Bernie Sanders - became 

more prominent. And inversely, the Democrats put up very centrist candidates in certain 

key States. For the Republicans, those most to the right are the ones re-elected. The 

moderates were in ridings which were themselves moderate, and thus historically those

 that flip first. Nothing is certain.