Day 4

 Day 4, no coffee. Slept in till 9 am. Feeling okay, drinking warm water

from my old coffee cup...

It's actually fun: those purple bags under my eyes seem to be clearing!

                                      *     *     *

I always feel umeasy when we get numbers from the war in Ukraine: so may

russian soldiers , and relatively few Ukrainians. Because the West is furnishing

such high tech weapons.

In point of fact, Ukraine is not telling its whole story here: the demography

of the countries is in shambles, with people leaving, and a fertility rate currently

at .9%. Russia is at 1.8%. Turkey at 1.9%. That's children per woman over her 

lifetime.

I can understand the Pope telling Ukraine to stop grandstanding, and look

to a negotiated solution.

                                                   *     *     *

From Bing/Chat:

The ongoing war in Ukraine has had significant repercussions on the country’s demographics and fertility rates. Let’s delve into the details:

Depopulation and Migration:

Since 1991 (Independence), Ukraine has experienced a rapid process of depopulation, exacerbated by large-scale emigration. Many Ukrainians left the country, including labor migrants before the war and those who fled hostilities since 2014.

The annexation of Crimea and the revolts in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in 2014 led to further displacement.

The situation became even more complex after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Reliable data on the population residing on government-controlled lands today is hard to obtain, and it’s even more challenging to assess the situation in the occupied regions1.

Fertility Rates:

The total fertility rate (TFR) in 2021 was 1.2, indicating a low birth rate.

In 2022, despite births planned before the war, the TFR is expected to be 0.9.

The most dramatic drop in fertility rate is anticipated in 2023, likely reaching 0.7, and this level is expected to persist until the end of the war1.

Impact on Births:

Ukraine’s birthrate has fallen by 28% since the start of the war.

In the first six months of 2023, 96,755 children were born, compared to 135,079 in the first half of 2022.

The exodus of the female population and security risks linked to the war have contributed to this catastrophic impact on birth rates4.

In summary, the war has significantly affected Ukraine’s population dynamics, leading to depopulation, displacement, and a sharp decline in fertility rates. The consequences are far-reaching and pose challenges for the country’s future. 🇺🇦